Welcome back! Hope you were able to tune in to the technically challenged lottery last night. The next 11 days are all about preparation, and come Saturday at midnight, you'll have all you need to prepare. You know the draft order, you'll know every team's 4 keepers soon, and I can't wait for the 26th. Read on to get my predictions of who's keeping who for 2016.
Andy
No Brainers:
Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Anthony Rizzo
On the
Bubble: Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Trevor Rosenthal
Final
Predictions: Andy has the best offensive keepers in the league. All of
them are elite offensive threats. He’s got (1) the reigning AL MVP, (2) the man
who’s hit the most homers of anyone in the league over the past 4 seasons, and (3)
one of the brightest new stars who bats in the middle of a World Series
favorite level offense. These three guys are good bets for 30-100 homers each
with OBP’s that should push .360, so who will he choose to compliment this
powerful trio? On the one hand, Heyward also plays in that stacked Cubs lineup
and will give him some speed and more OBP to go with his sluggers. But, you can
make a great case that he should keep an ace to go along with the most potent
offensive keeper lineup and hang onto Greinke for another year. Coming off
another great year, Greinke moves now to a hitter’s park in Arizona, will that
deter Andy from extending his contract again? Finally, an argument can be made
here for Trevor Rosenthal. With our league’s increased pressure on keeping pitching
ratios low, a solid closer becomes very valuable. But there’s not much Andy can
do to screw this up, I think he goes with Greinke as #4.
Brad
No Brainers: Max Scherzer, Troy Tulowitzki
On the
Bubble: Christian
Yelich, Adam Wainwright, Darren O’Day, Joaquin Benoit, Lucas Duda
Final
Predictions: It’s
no surprise Brad is having second thoughts about our league’s keeper rules. He’s
stuck with some bad ones this year, but only has himself to blame. Last year he
traded away Adrian Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw! Stick those 2 with Scherzer
and Yelich and he’s feeling much better about the upcoming season. Yes, he got
Tulo and a first round pick for Kershaw…but that’s a guy you just can’t give up,
especially to John. And I told him that several times. Anyway, this year he
will undoubtedly keep Scherzer, his only real star, as well as the two players
he received while trading away his talented dodgers, Troy Tulowitzki, and Adam
Wainwright. I think he has to roll the dice with Waino because he left himself
no other options. The fourth keeper spot will be a tough one, as there are a
slew of players who all have the same value in my eyes. Yelich is still young,
and gets on base at an exceptional rate, O’Day/Benoit goes back to the low
ratios thinking, and the increasing level of interest people should have on
closers (both Chapman and Kimbrel made it to last year’s fantasy championship).Finally
I tossed Duda in as a power hitter in an above average offense. I see Brad
taking the safe road and going with Yelich, his keeper from last year, in hopes
that he continues his rise. But, I think he’s a good candidate to test the ‘keep
a closer’ theory.
Dan
No Brainers: Giancarlo Stanton
On the
Bubble: Kyle
Schwarber, Chris Davis, Buster Posey, Justin Upton, Jake Arrieta, Xander
Bogaerts
Final
Predictions: Dan’s
keeper decisions are far from easy. Stanton is the only lock, a four category
stud hoping to bounce back after an injury shortened 2015. After that, Dan has
6 more legit keeper candidates that would all be no-brainers on a handful of
other teams. Schwarber is a young talent who fits very well with our league’s
rules; he’s young, gets on base, and has catcher eligibility. Chris Davis is a
perennial power house and true fantasy asset, while Buster Posey is another
catcher eligible player who provides steady, reliable production. Then there’s
the homer pick, who doesn’t want Bogey? The young stud has the chance to be our
best offensive shortstop since Nomar (if he isn’t already!)! And of course,
Jake Arrieta was either the most, or the runner –up most valuable player in
baseball last September (behind Kershaw). These are all real, legitimate keeper
options, and I don’t envy the Sophie’s choice Dan will have to make before
Saturday. My final predictions for him: Stanton, Posey, Davis, and Arrieta. I
think the Posey/Schwarber battle is closer than everyone else realizes though.
Eric
No Brainers: Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Sano,
Jose Altuve
On the
Bubble: Wade Davis,
Adrian Beltre, Jacoby Ellsbury, Sonny Gray
Final
Predictions: Encarnacion
and Altuve are perennial all-stars that have earned their way into the
no-brainers category, but Sano’s name might surprise you among the no brainers.
But in a keeper league with no real restrictions on keepers, younger guys who
put up numbers become hot commodities. Also, when you take into account that
Eric has the first two overall picks in addition to his keepers, this is a
gamble he can make. His fourth keeper definitely leaves something to be
desired, but picks 1 and 2 in the draft should more than make up for it. Beltre’s
selling point used to be his reliability, but he’s a Dominican 36 at this point
and isn’t as rock solid as he once was. Ellsbury is a pretty unexciting option
at this point, and seemingly will only give you real value in the steals
category. Sonny Gray is the best starter on Eric’s roster, but probably not worth
a keeper spot. Finally, Wade Davis is an intriguing option. In addition to his
no-brainers, this is another candidate where I would actually like to see a
closer kept, but it won’t happen, I think he goes with Ellsbury for the steals
and flexibility.
Greg
No Brainers: Bryce Harper, Starling Marte
On the
Bubble: Dee Gordon,
Prince Fielder, Alex Gordon, Carson Smith
Final
Predictions: Greg
continues to surround the NL MVP with lackluster talent, and it’s not
surprising he was the spearhead for the #TooManyKeepers movement. I need Bryce
Harper in the fantasy playoffs, it starts now! Beyond Harper, Greg’s keeper
options aren’t as bad as you might expect. Starling Marte is a great young
talent who can provide in 5 categories. Although he’s not going to fill up the
statsheet, Dee Gordon has a real discernable skill with his NSB’s and will be
valuable this season. Prince Fielder is still an all-star and an on-base
machine, and although his days of 30+ homers may be gone, he still provides
enough pop to be keeper-worth. I threw Alex Gordon and Carson Smith (lol) in
here just in case, but I think Greg’s four of Harper, Dee Gordon, Marte, and
Fielder, should be pretty much locked in.
John
No Brainers: Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw,
Carlos Correa
On the
Bubble: Matt
Carpenter, Corey Kluber, Adam Jones
Final
Predictions: While
Andy may have the best offensive keepers, John has the best overall keepers
without a doubt. Mike Trout is a top 2 offensive guy, Kershaw is an undisputed
top 1 pitcher. There were a lot of people secretly (and openly) disgruntled by
Brad trading away the game’s number 1 pitcher to the team that already has the
American league’s best hitter. On top of all that, let’s add to his no brainers
the newest generational star in Carlos Correa. It’s just not fair. But oh well,
he doesn’t have many draft picks to work with (although he has proven before
that something as silly as that won’t keep him out of the playoffs). John’s
fourth keeper should provide a challenging dilemma for him. Matt Carpenter
(John’s first selection in last year’s draft at pick 62) should not be
overlooked for the OBP and runs provides at the top of a very potent Cardinals
lineup. Then again, Kluber could give him an absolutely terrifying 1-2 punch
going into the draft. Finally, Adam Jones’ solid numbers could help bolster his
offensive categories even further. It’s really close between Kluber and
Carpenter for me, but I think, considering his lack of early draft picks, it
would be smarter to solidfy things on both sides of the ball and grab Kluber to
join Kershaw, Trout and Correa.
Mark
No Brainers: Jose Abreu, Ryan Braun
On the
Bubble: David
Ortiz, Robinson Cano, Noah Syndergaard, Felix Hernandez
Final
Predictions: Abreu
and Braun will be making their return to the 4-time champ and I’m sure he’s not
disappointed about it. Abreu should continue to be a 30-100 guy, and Braun
still produces enough in every category to warrant no brainer keeper status. I
listed four names on the bubble, but I would be a bit shocked to see Ortiz or
Cano on the keeper list. Cano’s second year in Seattle was similar to his
first, but a far cry from his glory days with the Yankees. Now 33 years old, he
still warrants a middle-high draft pick, but he’s no longer a keeper. Ortiz is
a nature-defying gamble of a keeper, capable of putting up his usual
35-100-.360 OBP type season, even at 39, but he’s locks up your one utility position
for the season, and…well he’s 40. I don’t think it would be ludicrous for Mark
to keep Ortiz here, but he has better options. Those options both happen to be
pitchers. Felix, even in an off year, had a great fantasy season, and I don’t
think Mark will cast him off just yet. Syndergaard was a highly touted prospect
which leads me to believe last year was no fluke. The only thing Mark has to
account for is the inevitable innings limit and how poorly the Fucking Mets
handle it (wah). I think Mark will keep an eye on the future and choose Syndergaard
to go with Felix, Abreu, and Braun.
Perk
No Brainers: Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz,
A.J. Pollock, Todd Frazier
On the
Bubble: Kyle
Seager, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Gomez
Final
Predictions: The
Champ has it pretty easy this offseason. He can just relax and count his
winnings. Cabrera/Cruz/Pollock/Frazier is a more than formidable start to his
offense. Cabrera remains an elite fantasy talent, and I’m expecting him to
continue to push a .400 OBP, Cruz and Frazier should both continue to rake in
homers and RBI. Pollock, Perk’s last pick of last season’s draft, has turned
into a 5 category producer and no brainer fourth keeper. If he wants to get
crazy, for whatever reason, he could consider Seager , although that makes
third base a little crowded, or Chapman, if he’s buying into my relievers
theory at all. The other possibility is Gomez, who may be worthy of keeping,
but I can’t find anyone in Perk’s core four that I would bump. Look for Miggy,
Cruz, Pollock, and Frazier to get the nod.
Pflanz
No Brainers: Manny Machado, Joey Votto
On the
Bubble: Mookie
Betts, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Dozier, Yoenis Cespedes, David Price, Jacob
DeGrom, Chris Archer
Final
Predictions: Pflanz
probably has the most keeper worthy talent on his roster from last year. But
that doesn’t necessarily mean he has a tough decision to make. I think it’s
fairly straightforward. Machado, Betts, and Votto all play different positions,
get on base a TON, and score a ton of runs. That’s a pretty damn good start to
Pflanz’s 2016 offense. Yes, Cespedes is a tough omission, but the trio already
listed doesn’t have any weak spots. In an OBP league, Cespedes has a glaring
one. Dozier is nice for position scarcity, but he has no shot here. On to the
pitchers: MadBum, Price, DeGrom, or Archer. As I said before, all are keeper
worthy talents, several will go in the first round, but if Pflanz has any
homerism it’s mostly for players on his own fantasy team, and Bumgarner has
been a stalwart for him there. So despite the surplus of top tier talent,
Pflanz’s decision isn’t too tough: Machado, Betts, Votto, Bumgarner.
Richie
No Brainers: Kris Bryant, Andrew McCutchen,
Chris Sale
On the
Bubble: J.D.
Martinez, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Adrian Gonzalez, Jon Lester
Final
Predictions: I’m
cheating a bit because I discussed this with him before, but he’s definitely
contending for best keepers this year. Putting the league’s newest rookie
sensation with a perennial MVP candidate and a perennial Cy Young candidate is tremendous.
So who will he choose to be the last piece of the puzzle? JD Martinez has a
good shot at 30-100, and will hit in a good lineup. You could make a real case
for Strasburg here. He would actually be my choice. He always puts up a solid
whip and a very good K/9, but still has never quite lived up to his potential,
and has frustrated Richie in the past. Former Red Sox players Adrian Gonzalez
and Jon Lester are both good keepers but aren’t quite on Strasburg’s level. I
think Richie’s final nod will go to the Pirates’ Gerrit Cole. He had an amazing
year last year and finished 4th in Cy Young voting. The youth also
plays a factor in this choice, as he’s only 25 years old. Look for Richie to
keep Bryant, Cutch, Sale, and Cole
Russ
No Brainers: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Fernandez
On the
Bubble: Carlos
Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman, Matt Harvey, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Longoria
Final
Predictions: This postseason/offseason
is really doing a number on my emotions. Finally got the monkey off my back and
beat Mark in the playoffs, only to lose in crushing fashion to a manager who
essentially stood pat at the deadline. Now I’m faced with some really tough
keeper choices. Goldy and Fernandez are locks, but then it gets complicated,
especially considering a couple of my best friends are on the bubble. Yes I
said my best friends. Longoria has been a member of the team since round 16 of
the first ever Franchise draft in 2008, I list him here out of respect, but we’ve
already ended discussions. CarGo has been on the squad since round 12 in 2010,
and made a hell of a case to stick around during the second half of last year.
Matt Harvey was on the mound and threw 5 innings of 1 hit, shutout ball with 7
strikeouts on Sunday Night Baseball the night I beat Mark. Freddie Freeman carries
the least emotional ties, but was my #1 overall draft pick, and makes a damn
good case to stick around in an OBP league. Finally, I could put my money where
my mouth is and keep Kimbreal, to see if an added emphasis on good closers
makes a difference. Final keepers: Kevin Pillar, Starlin Castro, Ken Giles,
Jarrett Parker.
Scanlon
No Brainers: Nolan Arenado, George Springer
On the
Bubble: Kenley
Jansen, Charlie Blackmon, Albert Pujols, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Brantley
Final
Predictions: I’m
pretty sure Jeremy already knows who he’ll be keeping, but I’m glad he still
hasn’t spilled the beans and let me speculate for a bit. The two no brainers
are there for both production and potential. Arenado definitely provided more
of the former last season, and should continue to roll at Coors Field. The
potential is still the for George Springer to have a breakout year, and you can’t
pass up on a talent like that...not that Scanlon has many other tempting
options. The rest of the bunch are none too impressive. Pujols is probably the
most reliable option is Jeremy is looking for solid production, and Keuchel was
his best starter last year so I could see that move as well. I’ll shut up about
the closers thing I promise, but Scanlon is another good candidate to keep a
closer in Kenley Jansen. He gets saves and put up absurd ratios, so he needs to
be considered. The other options are both slightly above average fantasy offensive
players in Blackmon and Brantley. Both have flaws, but Blackmon makes up for
his with better NSB’s and a little more pop than Brantley. My final predictions
here are Arenado, Springer, Keuchel, and Blackmon.
