A Wild Commish Appeared!

I’m not even going to acknowledge the fact that I haven’t done a writeup since week one. I won’t mention that I got a new job where I have to do actual work all day instead of having hours of time to pour over stats while making entry level dough. I also won’t mention this weird shift that has happened in my brain where I can’t get into baseball yet. It’s almost August, I’m ashamed of that.  So yeah, not going to make any excuses like that.

Meanwhile, we’re in late July, typically the time in the season where The Franchise sees its most rampant activity. The trade deadline is a mere week away and this league needs a shot of adrenaline. I can’t recap the whole season in detail, but I can do some things to highlight what’s been going on during the Commish’s hiatus.

Players

First, let’s talk players. I’m so out of it I watched the homerun derby and immediately said, ‘who the hell is Adam Duvall??’. (again, I’m ashamed). But hey, no one loves looking at stats more than I do, so I did some research and now I present the All-Franchise Pre-Trade Deadline First, Second, and Third teams. (according to our specific scoring)

All Franchise First Team (through July 20th)

C - Buster Posey, Richie

1B - Edwin Encarnacion, Eric

2B - Jose Altuve, Eric

3B - Josh Donaldson, Andy

SS - Ian Desmond, Greg

OF - Mike Trout, John

OF - Mark Trumbo, Richie

OF - Mookie Betts, Pflanz

UT - David Ortiz, Russ

SP - Clayton Kershaw, John

SP - Madison Bumgarner, Pflanz

SP - Max Scherzer, Brad

SP - Jose Fernandez, Russ

RP - Kenley Jansen, Perk

RP - Zach Britton, Richie

RP - Alejandro Ramos, Pflanz

P - Stephen Strasburg, Eric

All Franchise Second Team (through July 20th)

C - Jonathan Lucroy, Andy

1B - Anthony Rizzo, Andy

2B - Daniel Murphy, Brad

3B - Kris Bryant, Richie

SS - Xander Bogaerts, Alber

OF - Carlos Gonzalez, Russ

OF - Nelson Cruz, Perk

OF - Bryce Harper, Greg

UT - Paul Goldschmidt, Russ

SP - Noah Syndergaard, Mark

SP - Drew Pomeranz, Alber

SP - Jake Arrieta, Alber

SP - Julio Teheran, Scanlon

RP - Alex Colome, Mark

RP - Andrew Miller, Russ

RP - Fernando Rodney, Greg

P - Jacob DeGrom, Greg

All Franchise Third Team (through July 20th)

C - Brian McCann, Greg

1B - Chris Davis, Alber

2B - Robinson Cano, Mark

3B - Nolan Arenado, Scanlon

SS - Manny Machado, Pflanz

OF - Jackie Bradley Jr, John

OF - Yoenis Cespedes, Andy

OF - Starling Marte, Greg

UT - Matt Carpenter, Pflanz

SP - Johnny Cueto, Eric

SP - Chris Sale, Richie

SP - Rich Hill, Richie

SP - Kyle Hendricks, Pflanz

RP - Jesus Familia, Richie

RP - Roberto Osuna, Andy

RP - Aroldis Chapman, Russ

P - Jon Lester, Pflanz

So let’s digest some of this superstar talent. If we give everyone 3 points for each 1st team member, 2 for every second team member, and 1 for every third, what do the standings look like?

Overall

1. Richie - 14
2. Russ - 14
3. Pflanz - 13
4. Greg - 11
5. Eric - 10
6. Andy - 9
7. John - 7
8. Dan - 7
9. Brad - 5
10. Perk - 5
11. Mark - 5
12. Scanlon - 3

Pretty close to the current numbers, the top 7 stayed the top 7 besides John, who I’ll mention later. Keep in mind these teams may be a bit biased, and they are a far better measure of who has the most superstar talent rather than the best teams (John for example, has a bad team, but also has the best fantasy player on both sides of the ball). But oftentimes in a keeper league with no restrictions, superstars run the show. As proof, here’s the best player on every championship team in franchise history:

2008: Ryan Braun (3rd in NL MVP voting)

2009: Zack Greinke (AL Cy Young)

2010: Roy Oswalt (6th in NL CY Young voting)

2011: Jacoby Ellsbury (2nd in AL MVP voting)

2012: Mike Trout (2nd in AL MVP voting)

2013: Paul Goldschmidt (2nd in NL MVP voting)

2014: Mike Trout (AL MVP)

2015: Nelson Cruz (6th in AL MVP voting)

So yeah, besides a couple of weird years, having a player in the top 3 of MVP or CY Young voting is pretty damn important. Star power is important. Now if we break down offense vs. defense:

Offense

1. Richie - 8
2. Andy - 8
3. Greg - 7
4. Russ - 7
5. Eric - 6
6. Pflanz - 5
7. John - 4
8. Alber - 3
9. Brad - 2
10. Perk - 2
11. Mark - 1
12. Scanlon - 1

Defense

1. Pflanz - 8
2. Richie - 6
3. Russ - 6
4. Greg - 4
5. Mark - 4
6. Alber - 4
7. Eric - 4
8. Brad - 3
9. Perk - 3
10. John - 3
11. Scanlon - 2
12. Andy - 1

And that’s kind of the first step to determining who has been the best this season on both sides of the ball. So that does it for the player analysis. Look over those lists again, those are the impact guys in our league up to now. Especially sellers. These represent the guys that you need to make a decision on (keep for next year? Or get some massive trade value?).

Stats

Let’s move onto the numbers themselves, and look at how the stats have shaken out so far this season. Let’s look at the roto standings:

And comparing that to the current standings, things don’t look too far off. The top 6 are still the top 6, though Richie’s and Eric’s record suggests a bit of unluckiness, while Alber and Russ’ matchups may have worked out more favorably. What’s interesting here is that although Andy, Brad, and even Mark are close in the roto standings, but there’s a pretty big gap in the actual standings. We can probably attribute this to some of those ratio categories, that stay far more consistent in a roto setting than on a week to week basis.

Trade Deadline Primer

Since we’re so close, I thought I would end with a little trade deadline preview. The first and most important decision you have to make is whether you’re a buyer or a seller. If you’ve read this far, you know that a lot of the numbers suggest that the top 6 teams are actually deserving of the 6 playoff spots up to this point. There hasn’t been any crazy flukiness keeping one team in the hunt or knocking another team out of it. Last year, we had a tight playoff race, which led to having essentially 9 buyers and just 3 sellers. It was a sellers market and thus a great time to be on the bottom. We saw a record number of high round draft picks flying around as all of the buyers tried to outmuscle each other heading into the playoff stretch. Did it work? For the buyers, it didn’t, as Eddie won the ship making zero impactful trade deadline moves. As for the sellers, the three sellers last year were Eric, Greg, and Brad, so for at least two of the three, it seems to have worked out very well.

This year already appears to be more of a buyers market. The top 6 have an 8 game lead over the bottom 6, which is pretty significant separation. However, there’s still 8 weeks to play, so plenty can happen before the season ends.  Here’s a breakdown of where I think people will fall as we drift closer to July 31.

Buyers

1. Greg - Trying to break a streak of 6 straight years without making the playoffs, this is the best team Greg has had since 2009. He doesn’t have any glaring needs, but shoring up his bullpen and bringing down his ratios would go a long way.
2. Pflanz - One of the perennial buyers, this is another great Pflanz team that could give him a second straight bye week season. He hasn’t lost in 6 straight weeks. Besides some additional speed on offense there are no glaring needs here. An upgrade in the outfield or an extra arm in the rotation never hurts though.
3. Eric - Last year’s big trade deadline winner has not been as dominant as he thought he would be. There’s some room for upgrade in the outfield and behind the plate. He could also use a starter, and might have to make a tough decision on a couple of his struggling ‘aces’.
4. Dan - Just 2-3-2 since week 8, I’m not sold on this team as a title contender. Besides catcher, none of the offense needs to improve, but there’s room for it. Pitching is where his focus will likely be, he could use some help in the rotation and in the pen.
5. Russ - Back in the mix despite an annoying amount of apathy, I’m still here and I’m looking to make a deal. Harvey went down, so looking for another starter or two, could also use some help in the bullpen, at 3B, and in the OF.
6. Richie - Losing 3 out of the last 4 weeks (and currently losing to Scanlon), this is the fastest falling team among the top 6. A speedy second baseman would surely help his cause, and another great bat would make this an elite offense. I don’t think the pitching needs too much of a shakeup.

???

1. Andy - This team is certainly good enough to stay in it as a buyer, but like I said, kind of a big gap. He could use some help patching the holes left by some injuries, and his pitching staff is a real mess, so lots of work to be done there. If he goes the other way and sells, Lucroy, Cespedes, Ellsbury, Fowler, Osuna, and Davis, all become interesting targets.
2. Brad - Trying to make the playoffs for the first time in 4 years, I think Brad will be buying. Unfortunately he has a lot of needs. He’s got no superstars on offense, and needs some help in the rotation and bullpen as well.
3. Scanlon - He never fully swings to one side of the fence or the other. This is his 3rd season, and he has yet to make the playoffs. If he wants in, he could use a bullpen overhaul as well as some positional upgrades. If he sells, Pujols, Lindor, and Springer will all be hot commodities.
4. John - John has never sold. Ever. He’s made the playoffs for 6th straight years but the streak is in jeopardy. He’s very stubborn and I think he will go all out buying. If I’m right, he will be trying to supe up his pitching staff and make his offense stronger, literally, as in, more power. If I’m wrong, there are too many tantalizing players to list that he could send off for very good draft picks.
5. Eddie - The title defense has been pretty rough since losing Pollock in week 1 (although I can think of another manager who made the finals last year and lost his first pick of this year in week 1 and is currently in 5th but whatever). Villar, VMart, Jansen, and even Verlander could get him some good value if he decides to sell.

Sellers

1. Mark - Seems like he will be selling this year. Heyward, Rondon, Darvish, and King Felix should fetch a pretty good price.

I’m starting to get excited, it’s the best trade deadline in all of sports. I’m sure I’m not the only one who feels like Ari Gold during the days leading up to the deadline. Phone constantly in hand, fist pumping or swearing uncontrollably with each phone call or text message. Make your intentions known on the groupme! I have just turned up the heat on The Franchise hot stove. The deadline is coming! Are you a buyer or a seller?

Week 1 Recap

Greg 9 - Brad 1: McCann You Feel the Playoff Hype?

This Grapple at Grafton Ave wasn't as severe a beat down as the score suggests. Brad was very close in all hitting categories, not just RBI's, his lone category win. He lost by 1 homer and even lost by .001 OBP, those are some pretty tough breaks. Kemp was impressive this week, but the praise stops there, the rest were pretty weak, especially Troy Tulowitzki, who came with a LARGE price tag, only to put up abysmal numbers in week 1. His offense isn't great, so it would have been nice to steal a few from Greg this week, but at least it did better than his pitching.

The pitching was a mess, worst in the league in week 1, bottom 5 in every category (and bottom 3 in 4 out of 5). Scherzer and Zimmerman pitched decent, despite a lack of strikeouts, but keeper Adam Wainwright was lacking. Ross, Wacha, and Perkins really hurt the team this week as well. This is a strong pitching team and I'm confident he will bounce back from the closer-than-it-seemed week 1 blowout.

Apparently we did a decent job with Greg's team at the draft. He had a great week 1 on both sides of the ball resulting in the 9-1 victory and current #1 spot in the standings. Brian McCann of all people led the charge for his offense, with help from Bryce Harper (who else), and Prince Fielder. The big takeaway here was offensive balance, as most teams with a heavy amount of early draft picks usually have. The only real disappointment on the offense was Ian Desmond, and he wasn't that bad.

Greg's pitching was also above average this week, although even a pedestrian output could have swept pitching from Brad's dismal week 1 squad. The effort was spearheaded by Greg's closers, as he led all teams in net saves thanks to Robertson and Papelbon (3 NSV this week). Cole Hamels was also dynamite in both of his starts, earning him the Franchise Player of the Matchup Award.

Overall, this is a great start for Greg, a team that everyone is pegging for a deep playoff run, and definitely the best team he has had since his last playoff appearance a long 8 years ago.

Perk 5 - John 5: Here's a Story, of Another SS...

The battle of the last two Franchise Champions did not disappoint as they ended in a 5-5 tie. John dominated the offense, thanks to MLB opening week headline stealer Trevor Story, the no-brainer choice for Franchise Player of the Week. John could 'only' capitalize on 5 of Story's home runs and 8 of his RBI's after leaving him on the bench for Story's 2-dinger opener, but wow I can't really say anything that hasn't already been said. What a start to an MLB career, and I kinda feel like it wouldn't have happened if he didn't play shortstop and if John didn't draft him. Story overshadowed some great weeks for Adrian Gonzalez and Carlos Correa, but I'm sure John didn't mind. John's offense still doesn't look as formidable as it was in years past, but this great offensive output should instill confidence going forward.

John's pitching is where the wheels came off on this matchup. Kershaw was spectacular but one man cannot win you a week (although Kershaw did win him the QS category with his 2 games in the opening week). Unimpressive stuff from Kluber and McHugh tanked his ratios, and his closers just didn't get the opportunities. This is already a shaky staff behind the 2 former Cy Youngs, but John is hoping weeks like this don't become a trend.

The championship defense begins with a tie, and I'm sure Perk is happy with that after being on the wrong side of the Trevor Story story. The champ's offense put up a below average week, lowlighted of course by AJ Pollock's elbow fracture. Pollock was a valuable asset, and unsung hero, in the title run last year, and on an offense that was already projected as weak, this injury is a disaster.  Todd Frazier was the closest to having a good week, but this offense really stunk for the most part, and I don't want to read too much into the first week, but that may be indicative of offensive struggles to come.

The pitching was definitely in a better spot than the hitting in week 1, led by Perk's bullpen. It was 2 net saves for each of his three closers; Rosenthal, Jansen, and Gregerson, who all provided great ratio help as well. Rosenthal's line of 0.00-0.90-0-21.6-2 was especially noteworthy. The starters were quiet, save for a nice outing from Carlos Rodon, he will need more from guys like Carrasco and Stroman against better pitching staffs. But for now, Perk should be happy to let the bullpen carry him to a tie that he otherwise wouldn't have had any business in.

Dan 6 - Eric 3: Dan Now Title Favorite! Eric Destined for 0-22 Season?

Yes, I know it's only week 1, but you had to get a little extra satisfaction waking up this morning to see that Eric lost by 3 categories. The heavy favorite for the 2016 championship came out flat in week 1 both offensively and defensively. His best player this week? Wait for it....Brock Holt! As much as I love Holt, who had a very solid week 1, that has to be disappointing for Eric. But Altuve played fine, the Seager brothers looked sharp, and he played against a good offense. He seriously should not be worried about this offense going forward.

On the pitching side, things were better for Eric, but still not up to par. Price, the #1 #2 pick in the draft looked good, and was rained out of a second appearance. Iglesias was dazzling in his first two starts, Gray looked great, and Jeanmar Gomez had a couple of saves. The pitching wasn't too bad at all, just happened to be facing a staff that was slightly better this week. As much as I love to see the overwhelming pre-season favorite at the bottom of the standings, I know it's only a matter of time before things start to click.

I would say that Dan was pleasantly surprised by his team's week 1 victory. I certainly didn't see it coming. Despite the midweek injury to Ben Revere, Dan's offense was superbly balanced this week.  No tremendous performances, but no poor ones either. Chris Davis, a crowd favorite in Alberland, had a nice 2 homer week, while Ian Kinsler, playing his first game away from Perk in years, kept up his championship level play.

The pitching was great this week for Dan, Arrieta picked up where he left off with two excellent starts, earning him The Franchise Player of the Matchup award. Verlander, originally brought in to make Kinsler feel more at home (they both played for Perk for 18 years after all), contributed a quality start and some nice ratios. Aaron Sanchez also played well in the win. Net Saves was in reach as well, but blown saves from Hoover and Grilli shut that down. To sum it up, I'm sure Dan is happy with an early win over a formidable opponent, but don't get used to seeing Eric on the losing end of these matchups.

Andy 5 - Jeremy 4: Kids Back, Back, Back, Back...GONE

The Andy Offense hype is REAL. Week 1 overreaction alert, but this could be the best offense we've ever seen. Unfortunately, our league records history is all messed up because we used to have 25 man rosters, so we can never measure exactly how good it is, but I am blown away at the 47-14-46-.419 line Musto put up. I honestly don't remember many lines like that since the roster condensed. To cherry pick some stats to prove a point: If you combine the week 1 stats for last year's champ plus this year's most hyped team, they still don't beat Andy in those 4 categories. Two not-awful teams - combined! This unreal offensive explosion was courtesy of Andy's keepers for the most part, as Rizzo, Bautista, and Donaldson, The Franchise Player of the Matchup, combined for 17-8-23, numbers that were all very close to Scanlon's team totals this week. DJ LeMahieu, Jay Bruce, and Dexter Fowler would have been the best players on several teams this week, but are relegated to a footnote in this prolific offense. I expect things to continue offensively at a staggering pace for Kids Back.

For all of his emphasis on slugging this year, Andy's pitching seems to have been overlooked by the veteran manager. It's a bad pitching staff, and it performed the way most people expected it to. Of the small number of notable stars in this staff, Zack Greinke pitched poorly in his first week in the desert, and Wade Davis didn't see enough action to have an impact. The best output came from Roberto Osuna, with a couple of saves and a high k/9. There were other various contributions (Volquez's crazy k/9 for instance), but overall this was a mediocre effort from a weak pitching staff, and put a damper on Andy's red hot offense. I expect this to be a theme from Musto this season.

Scanlon may have drawn the short straw by playing Homers R Us this week, but his offense was well below average anyway, so he doesn't have much of an excuse. Starlin Castro provided the most pop for him among a sea of discouraging numbers from Blackmon, Pujols, and Springer. This offense is run of the mill anyway, but this was an underwhelming performance.

The pitching in this matchup was almost the inverse of the offense. Jeremy's pitcher was great in this one, top 3 in the league on the week. He was in the top 3 in every ratio category and had 4 net saves to boot (although losing the category by 1 to Andy). In addition, he was just 1 quality start from keeping this matchup at a tie. He got solid contributions from the whole staff as pretty much every player had a good week. Salazar led the charge, but Keuchel, Quintana. Madson, Street, Betances, Doolittle all pitched in enough to give him a great week and to stop the bleeding and hold things at 6-4. Despite the historically good debut for Andy's offense, this one really could have gone either way, and that should be concerning for Musto.

Mark 8 - Pflanz 1: New Castle, Same King

If you want the most well rounded showing of excellence from round 1, look no further than Mark's squad. This was a well executed beating from the start, a 5 category domination on offense, combined with a ratio-fueled, finesse-driven defensive smackdown. The household name Eugenio Suarez (of course) led the offense with a huge week, while Puig and Cano turned in performances that would typically earn them some more credit. Abreu, Heyward, Frankel were also part of the 5 category force that was Mark's offense this week. This is a very good offense and although I don't think they can maintain this exceptional pace, Mark can get used to winning a majority of offensive categories this season. 

On the pitching side, King Feliz, making yet another opening day start with a new Franchise team, didn't disappoint. His 2 QS, 11+ K/9 and ERA/WHIP under 1 earns him The Franchise Player of the Matchup. He was a force and set the tone for Mark's impressive week on the mound. If Noah Syndergaard had made a second start, that honor might have been his. He was splendid in his 6 innings of shutout ball, with a K/9 of 13.5 and a whip of 0.67. Kenta Maeda made up the third leg of a very impressive starting rotation with 6 shutout innings of his own. The only weak spots here were Chris Archer and Shawn Tolleson. Mark had a lot of front loaded starters who were able to get him the ratio categories, and the offense did the rest, 

Pflanz kicked off the season with a subpar performance at the plate and on the mound. Manny Machado was great in week 1, providing some much needed pop, but  Votto, Kipnis, and Mookie kept this offense in check with their underwhelming performances. Facing the best overall offensive performance of week 1, Pflanz had no chance to win anything here. 

On the mound, Pflanz's squad performed a little better, with Bumgarner looking great as usual, and Vincent Velasquez living up to and exceeding the hype thus far. Jeffress' 3 net saves were the highlight of the bullpen, among a Hinojosa blown save and some decent numbers from Ramos. Jefress really saved him here, as without those 3 saves, he's looking at a week 1 shutout. Smyly and Fiers certainly didn't help with their poor starts, but Pflanz still peiced together enough to tie Mark in QS. Still, it's a bad loss for a team that didn't have high expectations coming into the year. He can pretty much only go up from here...

Russ 6 - Richie 4: Schwarber? I Hardly Knew Her!

In what is becoming a good brotherly rivalry, I was able to take down big bro by a 6-4 margin. This was the most even competition of week 1 across all categories. Carlos Gonzalez did a great job of validating his keeper status with 3 homers, good enough for Franchise Player of the Matchup, while Goldschmidt, Ortiz, and the young Stephen Piscotty also pitched in, with a combined 11-5-16 between them. The big storyline here of course is the loss of my first pick in the draft, C/Of Kyle Schwarber. I had high hopes for the young slugger this year as evidenced by my draft selection, and for an offense that was looking pretty solid, there is now a giant hole at a tough to fill position. The injury bug has run rampant among my teams for the least few years now and I really don't care for it. Even with the early loss of Schwarber, the offense came together to win 4 categories. 

On the mound, Fernandez had a weird start, with 5 innings and 13 K's, but I'll take it. His impressive ratios, in tandem with relievers O'Day and Miller, helped me to win WHIP and K/9, which aligns well with my overall strategy, and hopefully we can continue to execute as intended going forward. As much as a subpar Harvey performance was a bummer, pick-up Juan Nicasio more than made up for it with a great start, and helped to win a couple of categories.

Richie was middle of the road on both sides of the ball, although for his team this year, that's actually a disappointment. He's got a great squad and I think we will see improvement in the future. Posey was great as expected, but Bryant and Duda under-performed. His Pittsburgh outfielders weren't bad, and gave him the boost in OBP that he needed to win the category. 

Chris Sale was the stud on the mound for Richie, with 2 QS and a solid K/9. Unfortunately, solid is not good enough when you're Chris Sale. Richie could have used a bump there. James Shields added another 2 QS to give Richie a commanding win the category, while Britton saved 2 and Richards helped with the ratios. Richie's team is pretty balanced, but needs more out of his top line players to live up to the playoff hopes. 

Post-Draft Power Rankings 2016

Welcome to the post-draft power rankings for the Franchise IX. The rankings are purely numbers driven with no bias. I take multiple projection systems (none of which are ESPN) that combine all projected stats to get a score for each player. Because math!

Player Score Examples

Rank	Score	Player
1	18.90	Clayton Kershaw
2	18.25	Mike Trout
13	14.12	Josh Donaldson
45	11.83	King Felix
100	9.67	Francisco Lindor
150	8.36	Russell Martin
200	7.73	Julio Teheran
300	6.35	Lonnie Chisenhall

The score difference between each player is less significant as the draft gets deeper (i.e. over 4 points between Trout and Donaldson, while Lindor to Chisenhall is 3 points of a difference).

The rankings are in the following format:

             a) Score
             b) Best draft pick
             c) Worst draft pick
             d) MC analysis

Keeper History Part 2

As promised, time for part 2 of my favorite annual article about how we got each of our keepers and what kind of history we have with some of our favorite fantasy players.

Here are some fun stats!

The longest Kept Players in League history (maximum 8 years):
AKA, the guys you've almost never been able to draft in Franchise history

1. Miguel Cabrera - 8 seasons, all with Eddie
2. Ryan Braun - 8 seasons, one month with Pflanz, the rest with Mark
3. Evan Longoria - 7 seasons, all with Russ
4. Hanley Ramirez - 7 seasons, 2 with Zack, 5 with John
5. Felix Hernandez - 7 seasons, 1 with Dan, 1 with Mark, 1 with Richie, and two different stints with Keeves/Scanlon spanning 4 years (5 different owners have kept Felix Hernandez)
6. Joey Votto - 6 seasons, all with Pflanz
7. Jose Bautista - 6 seasons, all with Andy
8. Carlos Gonzalez - 6 seasons, all with Russ
9. Troy Tulowitzki - 6 seasons, 5 with John, 1 with Brad
10. Andrew McCutchen - 6 seasons, 3 with Keeves, 3 with Richie
11. Dustin Pedroia - 6 seasons, 3 with Greg, 3 with Zack
12. Albert Pujols - 6 seasons, 5 with Russ, 1 with Pflanz
13. David Wright - 6 seasons, 5 with Brad, 1 with Richie
14. Jacoby Ellsbury - 6 seasons, all with Fitz/Dan
15. Prince Fielder - 6 seasons, 4 with Brad, 1 with Eric, 1 with Greg


Each team's longest kept player:

Perk - Miguel Cabrera (2009-present)
Mark - Ryan Braun (2009-present)
Russ - Evan Longoria (2009-2015)
Pflanz - Joey Votto (2011-present)
Andy - Jose Bautista (2011-present)
Dan - Jacoby Ellsbury (2010-2015)
John - Hanley Ramirez & Troy Tulowitzki (2011-2015)
Brad - David Wright (2009-2013)
Richie - Dustin Pedroia (2009-2011) & Andrew McCutchen (2014-present)
Scanlon - Felix Hernandez (2011-2013; 2015)
Eric - Edwin Encarnacion (2014-2016) , Roy Halladay (2010-2012), Ichiro (2009-2011), Cliff Lee (2011-2012; 2013)
Greg - Jose Reyes (2009-2012) & Bryce Harper (2012-present)


Teams with highest percentage of seasons kept (through 8 years - includes repeat players)
1. New York Yankees...6.3% (Cano, A-Rod, Ellsbury, CC, Teixeira, Soriano, Granderson)
2. Detroit Tigers.....5.1% (Cabrera, Verlander, Kinsler, Scherzer, Fielder)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers...5.1% (Kemp, Greinke, Puig, Hanley, Ethier, Gonzalez, Kershaw)
4. Boston Red Sox...5.1% (Youk, Pedroia, Betts, Bogey, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Hanley)
5. Tampa Bay Rays.....4.8% (Longoria, Price, Moore, Zobrist, Myers, Crawford)


Teams with lowest number of players kept (through 8 years)
1. Kansas City Royals....0.3% (Billy Butler)
2. San Diego Padres......0.3% (Jake Peavy)
3. Oakland Athletics.....0.6% (Josh Donaldson, Sonny Gray)
4. Chicago Cubs.............2.0% (Castro, Arrieta, Rizzo, Bryant)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks....2.0% (Goldschmidt, Greinke, Pollock, Upton)


Longest Current Tenured Keepers (with one team)
1. Miguel Cabrera - 8 years
2. Ryan Braun - 7 years, 11 months
3. Joey Votto - 6 years
4. Carlos Gonzalez - 6 Years
5. Jose Bautsita - 5 Years, 10 months


Commish's Keeper Prediction Results
42/44..... 95.4%


2016 Keeper Breakdown
Draft: 56%
Trade: 29%
Free Agency: 9%
Keeper Draft: 6%

Details Below:

Greg
DRAFT: Harper ('12, pick 126), Marte ('14, pick 18), Gordon ('15, pick 44), Fielder ('15, pick 29)

Andy
DRAFT: Greinke ('13, pick 36), Rizzo ('14, pick 35)
FREE AGENCY: Bautista ('10, May), Donaldson ('13, April)

Scanlon
DRAFT: Keuchel ('15, pick 147)
TRADE: Arenado ('15, from Richie), Blackmon ('15, from Eric)
FREE AGENCY: Springer ('14, April)

Pflanz
DRAFT: Votto ('10, pick 19), Betts ('15, pick 69)
TRADE: Bumgarner ('13, from Greg)
FREE AGENCY: Machado ('14, September)

Dan
DRAFT: Stanton ('11, pick 13), Davis ('15, pick 15), Arrieta ('15, pick 58), Bogaerts ('15, pick 130)

John
DRAFT: Kluber ('13, pick 160), Correa ('15, pick 157)
TRADE: Trout ('12, from Greg), Kershaw ('15 from Brad)

Brad
KEEPER DRAFT:  Scherzer ('14, pick 8)
TRADE: Yelich ('14, from Russ), Tulowitzki ('15 from John), Wainwright ('15 from Richie)

Mark
DRAFT: Abreu ('14, pick 60)
TRADE: Braun ('08, from Pflanz), Syndergaard ('15 from Dan), Hernandez ('15 from Scanlon)

Russ
DRAFT:  Gonzalez ('10, pick 75), Fernandez ('15, pick 33)
TRADE: Harvey ('14, from Richie), Goldschmidt ('14, from Mark)

Perk
DRAFT: Cabrera ('08, Pick 10), Cruz ('14, pick 157), Frazier ('15 pick 32), Pollock ('15, pick 174)

Eric
DRAFT: Altuve ('14, pick 48), Sano ('15, pick 182), Gray ('15, pick 20)
KEEPER DRAFT: Encarnacion ('14, pick 13)

Richie
DRAFT: Bryant ('15, pick 48), Cole ('15, pick 27)
KEEPER DRAFT: McCutchen ('14, pick 2)
TRADE: Sale ('14, from Perk)

Commish Mocks the First Round of the Draft:
1. Eric - David Price
2. Eric - JD Martinez
3. Brad - Justin Upton
4. Greg - Jacob DeGrom
5. Richie - Buster Posey
6. Eric - Yoenis Cespedes
7. Mark - Carlos Gomez
8. Brad - Robinson Cano
9. Eric - Chris Archer
10. Andy - Jason Heyward
11. Eric - Kenley Jansen
12. Eddie - Craig Kimbrel

Keeper History Part 1

One of my favorite things to do every year is break down where we all got our keepers. This year, I'm splitting things into two parts. The first part is this graphic which shows every keeper in the history of the league. I didn't list them by manager, but by organization, so Fitz/Dan, Zhou/Bart/Eric, Zack/Richie, Keeves/Scanlon are in there as well as the original 7 plus Andy (Pru wasn't around long enough to have keepers). I think it's a cool way to check out your team history. I'll come through with more stats on keeper later tonight or tomorrow, but I thought I would put this out there in the meantime.


I tried to colorize them by whatever team the player was on at the time. If the colors look weird, keep in mind I'm slightly colorblind.

Projected Keepers 2016

Welcome back! Hope you were able to tune in to the technically challenged lottery last night. The next 11 days are all about preparation, and come Saturday at midnight, you'll have all you need to prepare. You know the draft order, you'll know every team's 4 keepers soon, and I can't wait for the 26th. Read on to get my predictions of who's keeping who for 2016. 

Andy

No Brainers: Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Anthony Rizzo

On the Bubble: Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Trevor Rosenthal

Final Predictions: Andy has the best offensive keepers in the league. All of them are elite offensive threats. He’s got (1) the reigning AL MVP, (2) the man who’s hit the most homers of anyone in the league over the past 4 seasons, and (3) one of the brightest new stars who bats in the middle of a World Series favorite level offense. These three guys are good bets for 30-100 homers each with OBP’s that should push .360, so who will he choose to compliment this powerful trio? On the one hand, Heyward also plays in that stacked Cubs lineup and will give him some speed and more OBP to go with his sluggers. But, you can make a great case that he should keep an ace to go along with the most potent offensive keeper lineup and hang onto Greinke for another year. Coming off another great year, Greinke moves now to a hitter’s park in Arizona, will that deter Andy from extending his contract again? Finally, an argument can be made here for Trevor Rosenthal. With our league’s increased pressure on keeping pitching ratios low, a solid closer becomes very valuable. But there’s not much Andy can do to screw this up, I think he goes with Greinke as #4.

Brad

No Brainers: Max Scherzer, Troy Tulowitzki

On the Bubble: Christian Yelich, Adam Wainwright, Darren O’Day, Joaquin Benoit, Lucas Duda

Final Predictions: It’s no surprise Brad is having second thoughts about our league’s keeper rules. He’s stuck with some bad ones this year, but only has himself to blame. Last year he traded away Adrian Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw! Stick those 2 with Scherzer and Yelich and he’s feeling much better about the upcoming season. Yes, he got Tulo and a first round pick for Kershaw…but that’s a guy you just can’t give up, especially to John. And I told him that several times. Anyway, this year he will undoubtedly keep Scherzer, his only real star, as well as the two players he received while trading away his talented dodgers, Troy Tulowitzki, and Adam Wainwright. I think he has to roll the dice with Waino because he left himself no other options. The fourth keeper spot will be a tough one, as there are a slew of players who all have the same value in my eyes. Yelich is still young, and gets on base at an exceptional rate, O’Day/Benoit goes back to the low ratios thinking, and the increasing level of interest people should have on closers (both Chapman and Kimbrel made it to last year’s fantasy championship).Finally I tossed Duda in as a power hitter in an above average offense. I see Brad taking the safe road and going with Yelich, his keeper from last year, in hopes that he continues his rise. But, I think he’s a good candidate to test the ‘keep a closer’ theory.

Dan

No Brainers: Giancarlo Stanton

On the Bubble: Kyle Schwarber, Chris Davis, Buster Posey, Justin Upton, Jake Arrieta, Xander Bogaerts 

Final Predictions: Dan’s keeper decisions are far from easy. Stanton is the only lock, a four category stud hoping to bounce back after an injury shortened 2015. After that, Dan has 6 more legit keeper candidates that would all be no-brainers on a handful of other teams. Schwarber is a young talent who fits very well with our league’s rules; he’s young, gets on base, and has catcher eligibility. Chris Davis is a perennial power house and true fantasy asset, while Buster Posey is another catcher eligible player who provides steady, reliable production. Then there’s the homer pick, who doesn’t want Bogey? The young stud has the chance to be our best offensive shortstop since Nomar (if he isn’t already!)! And of course, Jake Arrieta was either the most, or the runner –up most valuable player in baseball last September (behind Kershaw). These are all real, legitimate keeper options, and I don’t envy the Sophie’s choice Dan will have to make before Saturday. My final predictions for him: Stanton, Posey, Davis, and Arrieta. I think the Posey/Schwarber battle is closer than everyone else realizes though.

Eric

No Brainers: Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Sano, Jose Altuve

On the Bubble: Wade Davis, Adrian Beltre, Jacoby Ellsbury, Sonny Gray

Final Predictions: Encarnacion and Altuve are perennial all-stars that have earned their way into the no-brainers category, but Sano’s name might surprise you among the no brainers. But in a keeper league with no real restrictions on keepers, younger guys who put up numbers become hot commodities. Also, when you take into account that Eric has the first two overall picks in addition to his keepers, this is a gamble he can make. His fourth keeper definitely leaves something to be desired, but picks 1 and 2 in the draft should more than make up for it. Beltre’s selling point used to be his reliability, but he’s a Dominican 36 at this point and isn’t as rock solid as he once was. Ellsbury is a pretty unexciting option at this point, and seemingly will only give you real value in the steals category. Sonny Gray is the best starter on Eric’s roster, but probably not worth a keeper spot. Finally, Wade Davis is an intriguing option. In addition to his no-brainers, this is another candidate where I would actually like to see a closer kept, but it won’t happen, I think he goes with Ellsbury for the steals and flexibility.

 Greg

No Brainers: Bryce Harper, Starling Marte

On the Bubble: Dee Gordon, Prince Fielder, Alex Gordon, Carson Smith

Final Predictions: Greg continues to surround the NL MVP with lackluster talent, and it’s not surprising he was the spearhead for the #TooManyKeepers movement. I need Bryce Harper in the fantasy playoffs, it starts now! Beyond Harper, Greg’s keeper options aren’t as bad as you might expect. Starling Marte is a great young talent who can provide in 5 categories. Although he’s not going to fill up the statsheet, Dee Gordon has a real discernable skill with his NSB’s and will be valuable this season. Prince Fielder is still an all-star and an on-base machine, and although his days of 30+ homers may be gone, he still provides enough pop to be keeper-worth. I threw Alex Gordon and Carson Smith (lol) in here just in case, but I think Greg’s four of Harper, Dee Gordon, Marte, and Fielder, should be pretty much locked in.

John

No Brainers: Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Correa  

On the Bubble: Matt Carpenter, Corey Kluber, Adam Jones

Final Predictions: While Andy may have the best offensive keepers, John has the best overall keepers without a doubt. Mike Trout is a top 2 offensive guy, Kershaw is an undisputed top 1 pitcher. There were a lot of people secretly (and openly) disgruntled by Brad trading away the game’s number 1 pitcher to the team that already has the American league’s best hitter. On top of all that, let’s add to his no brainers the newest generational star in Carlos Correa. It’s just not fair. But oh well, he doesn’t have many draft picks to work with (although he has proven before that something as silly as that won’t keep him out of the playoffs). John’s fourth keeper should provide a challenging dilemma for him. Matt Carpenter (John’s first selection in last year’s draft at pick 62) should not be overlooked for the OBP and runs provides at the top of a very potent Cardinals lineup. Then again, Kluber could give him an absolutely terrifying 1-2 punch going into the draft. Finally, Adam Jones’ solid numbers could help bolster his offensive categories even further. It’s really close between Kluber and Carpenter for me, but I think, considering his lack of early draft picks, it would be smarter to solidfy things on both sides of the ball and grab Kluber to join Kershaw, Trout and Correa.

Mark

No Brainers: Jose Abreu, Ryan Braun  

On the Bubble: David Ortiz, Robinson Cano, Noah Syndergaard, Felix Hernandez

Final Predictions: Abreu and Braun will be making their return to the 4-time champ and I’m sure he’s not disappointed about it. Abreu should continue to be a 30-100 guy, and Braun still produces enough in every category to warrant no brainer keeper status. I listed four names on the bubble, but I would be a bit shocked to see Ortiz or Cano on the keeper list. Cano’s second year in Seattle was similar to his first, but a far cry from his glory days with the Yankees. Now 33 years old, he still warrants a middle-high draft pick, but he’s no longer a keeper. Ortiz is a nature-defying gamble of a keeper, capable of putting up his usual 35-100-.360 OBP type season, even at 39, but he’s locks up your one utility position for the season, and…well he’s 40. I don’t think it would be ludicrous for Mark to keep Ortiz here, but he has better options. Those options both happen to be pitchers. Felix, even in an off year, had a great fantasy season, and I don’t think Mark will cast him off just yet. Syndergaard was a highly touted prospect which leads me to believe last year was no fluke. The only thing Mark has to account for is the inevitable innings limit and how poorly the Fucking Mets handle it (wah). I think Mark will keep an eye on the future and choose Syndergaard to go with Felix, Abreu, and Braun.

Perk

No Brainers: Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, A.J. Pollock, Todd Frazier

On the Bubble: Kyle Seager, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Gomez

Final Predictions: The Champ has it pretty easy this offseason. He can just relax and count his winnings. Cabrera/Cruz/Pollock/Frazier is a more than formidable start to his offense. Cabrera remains an elite fantasy talent, and I’m expecting him to continue to push a .400 OBP, Cruz and Frazier should both continue to rake in homers and RBI. Pollock, Perk’s last pick of last season’s draft, has turned into a 5 category producer and no brainer fourth keeper. If he wants to get crazy, for whatever reason, he could consider Seager , although that makes third base a little crowded, or Chapman, if he’s buying into my relievers theory at all. The other possibility is Gomez, who may be worthy of keeping, but I can’t find anyone in Perk’s core four that I would bump. Look for Miggy, Cruz, Pollock, and Frazier to get the nod.

Pflanz

No Brainers: Manny Machado, Joey Votto

On the Bubble: Mookie Betts, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Dozier, Yoenis Cespedes, David Price, Jacob DeGrom, Chris Archer

Final Predictions: Pflanz probably has the most keeper worthy talent on his roster from last year. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he has a tough decision to make. I think it’s fairly straightforward. Machado, Betts, and Votto all play different positions, get on base a TON, and score a ton of runs. That’s a pretty damn good start to Pflanz’s 2016 offense. Yes, Cespedes is a tough omission, but the trio already listed doesn’t have any weak spots. In an OBP league, Cespedes has a glaring one. Dozier is nice for position scarcity, but he has no shot here. On to the pitchers: MadBum, Price, DeGrom, or Archer. As I said before, all are keeper worthy talents, several will go in the first round, but if Pflanz has any homerism it’s mostly for players on his own fantasy team, and Bumgarner has been a stalwart for him there. So despite the surplus of top tier talent, Pflanz’s decision isn’t too tough: Machado, Betts, Votto, Bumgarner.

Richie

No Brainers: Kris Bryant, Andrew McCutchen, Chris Sale

On the Bubble: J.D. Martinez, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Adrian Gonzalez, Jon Lester

Final Predictions: I’m cheating a bit because I discussed this with him before, but he’s definitely contending for best keepers this year. Putting the league’s newest rookie sensation with a perennial MVP candidate and a perennial Cy Young candidate is tremendous. So who will he choose to be the last piece of the puzzle? JD Martinez has a good shot at 30-100, and will hit in a good lineup. You could make a real case for Strasburg here. He would actually be my choice. He always puts up a solid whip and a very good K/9, but still has never quite lived up to his potential, and has frustrated Richie in the past. Former Red Sox players Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Lester are both good keepers but aren’t quite on Strasburg’s level. I think Richie’s final nod will go to the Pirates’ Gerrit Cole. He had an amazing year last year and finished 4^th in Cy Young voting. The youth also plays a factor in this choice, as he’s only 25 years old. Look for Richie to keep Bryant, Cutch, Sale, and Cole

Russ

No Brainers: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Fernandez

On the Bubble: Carlos Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman, Matt Harvey, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Longoria

Final Predictions: This postseason/offseason is really doing a number on my emotions. Finally got the monkey off my back and beat Mark in the playoffs, only to lose in crushing fashion to a manager who essentially stood pat at the deadline. Now I’m faced with some really tough keeper choices. Goldy and Fernandez are locks, but then it gets complicated, especially considering a couple of my best friends are on the bubble. Yes I said my best friends. Longoria has been a member of the team since round 16 of the first ever Franchise draft in 2008, I list him here out of respect, but we’ve already ended discussions. CarGo has been on the squad since round 12 in 2010, and made a hell of a case to stick around during the second half of last year. Matt Harvey was on the mound and threw 5 innings of 1 hit, shutout ball with 7 strikeouts on Sunday Night Baseball the night I beat Mark. Freddie Freeman carries the least emotional ties, but was my #1 overall draft pick, and makes a damn good case to stick around in an OBP league. Finally, I could put my money where my mouth is and keep Kimbreal, to see if an added emphasis on good closers makes a difference. Final keepers: Kevin Pillar, Starlin Castro, Ken Giles, Jarrett Parker.

Scanlon

No Brainers: Nolan Arenado, George Springer

On the Bubble: Kenley Jansen, Charlie Blackmon, Albert Pujols, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Brantley

Final Predictions: I’m pretty sure Jeremy already knows who he’ll be keeping, but I’m glad he still hasn’t spilled the beans and let me speculate for a bit. The two no brainers are there for both production and potential. Arenado definitely provided more of the former last season, and should continue to roll at Coors Field. The potential is still the for George Springer to have a breakout year, and you can’t pass up on a talent like that...not that Scanlon has many other tempting options. The rest of the bunch are none too impressive. Pujols is probably the most reliable option is Jeremy is looking for solid production, and Keuchel was his best starter last year so I could see that move as well. I’ll shut up about the closers thing I promise, but Scanlon is another good candidate to keep a closer in Kenley Jansen. He gets saves and put up absurd ratios, so he needs to be considered. The other options are both slightly above average fantasy offensive players in Blackmon and Brantley. Both have flaws, but Blackmon makes up for his with better NSB’s and a little more pop than Brantley. My final predictions here are Arenado, Springer, Keuchel, and Blackmon.