Luck Factor - Take 2

My stats department missed some critical components to the Luck Factor blog post a couple weeks ago.  When I presented them the idea, no one told them that you actually want and ERA and WHIP lower than the league average.  They didn't account for it and thus, the information was not accurate.  I fired the whole department.

In that blog post, Eric was pegged as having the worst ERA and WHIP, relative to the league average.  He actually had the best marks in those categories.  You can see how the further away from the mean you were, the more this affected the final output.  Eric, John, and Jeremy's luck was probably higher than it should have been, while Dan, Greg, and Brad's luck was probably a little lower than it should have been.

After the adjustments, here are the accurate numbers through week 11 (which just happens to be one full rotation through the schedule):

• Eric is the only one who has a legitimate gripe with his luck this year.  He's stuck in 7th place despite his team putting up the second best stats thus far.  

• Very important to note that Richie's team ranks ahead of Russ's team in projected winning percentage for the simple fact that it will make him mad.  Russ says "I don't care, I'm in third place asshole.  I wish I never invited you into this league" but he cares.  He definitely cares.

• Eddie's fast start is starting to catch up with him, as he slips out of first place for the first time in many weeks.  He is beginning to regress as expected but still has a good team and should make the playoffs easily if not challenge for a bye.

• I don't know what the record for worst winning percentage is, but if Brad was unlucky he would probably be challenging it (just the facts Brad, no hard feelings).  

• Most importantly, I can still say that I am super unlucky and if I had even a smidge of good luck, I'd be in the playoff picture.  Hold the line!  Steady!  Steady!  Regression is coming!