Luckdate

(Luck + update...get it?)

During my fantasy baseball withdrawals over the all star break I went the extra mile and extrapolated my luck idea across all categories.  It's not a perfect system and I'm still finding some flaws in it but I'm still digging it.  Here are the results:

First, team luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	1	Andy	0.591	0.618	0.027		2	Eddie	0.496	0.575	0.079
	4	Mark	0.570	0.536	-0.034		3	Russ	0.496	0.554	0.058
	8	Eric	0.549	0.482	-0.067		11	Brad	0.394	0.425	0.031
T	5	Pflanz	0.533	0.511	-0.022	T	6	John	0.480	0.507	0.027
E	9	Richie	0.525	0.471	-0.054	E	1	Andy	0.591	0.618	0.027
A	2	Eddie	0.496	0.575	0.079	A	7	Dan	0.494	0.496	0.002
M	3	Russ	0.496	0.554	0.058	M	12	Greg	0.403	0.393	-0.010
	7	Dan	0.494	0.496	0.002		5	Pflanz	0.533	0.511	-0.022
	6	John	0.480	0.507	0.027		4	Mark	0.570	0.536	-0.034
	10	Jeremy	0.470	0.432	-0.038		10	Jeremy	0.470	0.432	-0.038
	12	Greg	0.403	0.393	-0.010		9	Richie	0.525	0.471	-0.054
	11	Brad	0.394	0.425	0.031		8	Eric	0.549	0.482	-0.067

Followed by offensive luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	8	Eric	0.625	0.457	-0.168		1	Andy	0.480	0.607	0.127
O	5	Pflanz	0.600	0.543	-0.057	O	11	Brad	0.414	0.522	0.107
F	4	Mark	0.575	0.557	-0.018	F	2	Eddie	0.489	0.550	0.061
F	3	Russ	0.565	0.565	-0.001	F	7	Dan	0.440	0.486	0.046
E	9	Richie	0.503	0.443	-0.060	E	6	John	0.475	0.514	0.039
N	2	Eddie	0.489	0.550	0.061	N	10	Jeremy	0.372	0.379	0.007
S	1	Andy	0.480	0.607	0.127	S	3	Russ	0.565	0.565	-0.001
E	6	John	0.475	0.514	0.039	E	4	Mark	0.575	0.557	-0.018
	12	Greg	0.462	0.378	-0.083		5	Pflanz	0.600	0.543	-0.057
	7	Dan	0.440	0.486	0.046		9	Richie	0.503	0.443	-0.060
	11	Brad	0.414	0.522	0.107		12	Greg	0.462	0.378	-0.083
	10	Jeremy	0.372	0.379	0.007		8	Eric	0.625	0.457	-0.168

Followed by defensive luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	1	Andy	0.702	0.629	-0.073		3	Russ	0.426	0.543	0.117
D	10	Jeremy	0.568	0.486	-0.082	D	2	Eddie	0.503	0.600	0.097
E	4	Mark	0.566	0.514	-0.052	E	12	Greg	0.345	0.407	0.062
F	9	Richie	0.548	0.500	-0.048	F	8	Eric	0.472	0.507	0.035
E	7	Dan	0.548	0.507	-0.040	E	6	John	0.484	0.500	0.016
N	2	Eddie	0.503	0.600	0.097	N	5	Pflanz	0.465	0.479	0.013
S	6	John	0.484	0.500	0.016	S	7	Dan	0.548	0.507	-0.040
E	8	Eric	0.472	0.507	0.035	E	11	Brad	0.373	0.329	-0.044
	5	Pflanz	0.465	0.479	0.013		9	Richie	0.548	0.500	-0.048
	3	Russ	0.426	0.543	0.117		4	Mark	0.566	0.514	-0.052
	11	Brad	0.373	0.329	-0.044		1	Andy	0.702	0.629	-0.073
	12	Greg	0.345	0.407	0.062		10	Jeremy	0.568	0.486	-0.082

And the mother load, the categorical breakdowns:

EXPECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
Team	R	HR	RBI	OBP	NSB	ERA	WHIP	K/9	QS	NSV
John	0.585	0.689	0.543	0.505	0.055	0.504	0.501	0.514	0.491	0.409
Greg	0.397	0.392	0.386	0.523	0.611	0.307	0.442	0.380	0.454	0.143
Mark	0.498	0.372	0.420	0.478	1.104	0.561	0.501	0.418	0.362	0.986
Jeremy	0.483	0.669	0.428	0.439	-0.161	0.525	0.510	0.441	0.601	0.764
Andy	0.506	0.501	0.576	0.517	0.302	0.692	0.569	0.487	0.839	0.920
Pflanz	0.571	0.620	0.541	0.502	0.765	0.495	0.535	0.589	0.564	0.143
Eric	0.465	0.372	0.554	0.508	1.228	0.597	0.552	0.433	0.436	0.343
Richie	0.506	0.481	0.506	0.502	0.518	0.495	0.501	0.540	0.528	0.676
Eddie	0.519	0.620	0.618	0.508	0.179	0.489	0.400	0.603	0.326	0.698
Brad	0.472	0.372	0.412	0.451	0.364	0.427	0.535	0.494	0.509	-0.101
Dan	0.444	0.491	0.498	0.496	0.271	0.385	0.451	0.527	0.656	0.720
Russ	0.553	0.422	0.517	0.571	0.765	0.522	0.501	0.574	0.234	0.299
ACTUAL WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
Team	R	HR	RBI	OBP	NSB	ERA	WHIP	K/9	QS	NSV
John	0.571	0.571	0.536	0.429	0.464	0.500	0.500	0.357	0.571	0.571
Greg	0.286	0.357	0.214	0.571	0.464	0.357	0.500	0.357	0.393	0.429
Mark	0.571	0.464	0.429	0.500	0.821	0.643	0.571	0.286	0.357	0.714
Jeremy	0.357	0.536	0.393	0.357	0.250	0.571	0.429	0.357	0.429	0.643
Andy	0.786	0.500	0.786	0.571	0.393	0.643	0.643	0.500	0.679	0.679
Pflanz	0.464	0.393	0.607	0.571	0.679	0.429	0.500	0.643	0.607	0.214
Eric	0.357	0.286	0.536	0.429	0.679	0.714	0.500	0.500	0.464	0.357
Richie	0.393	0.500	0.357	0.500	0.464	0.429	0.500	0.500	0.571	0.500
Eddie	0.536	0.750	0.643	0.500	0.321	0.571	0.429	0.857	0.429	0.714
Brad	0.714	0.536	0.536	0.429	0.393	0.214	0.357	0.357	0.536	0.179
Dan	0.429	0.679	0.536	0.357	0.429	0.357	0.429	0.571	0.643	0.536
Russ	0.536	0.429	0.429	0.786	0.643	0.571	0.643	0.714	0.321	0.464
WINNING PERCENTAGE VARIANCE
Team	R	HR	RBI	OBP	NSB	ERA	WHIP	K/9	QS	NSV
John	-0.014	-0.118	-0.007	-0.076	0.409	-0.004	-0.001	-0.157	0.080	0.162
Greg	-0.111	-0.035	-0.172	0.048	-0.147	0.050	0.058	-0.023	-0.061	0.286
Mark	0.073	0.092	0.009	0.022	-0.283	0.082	0.070	-0.132	-0.005	-0.272
Jeremy	-0.126	-0.133	-0.035	-0.082	0.411	0.046	-0.081	-0.084	-0.172	-0.121
Andy	0.280	-0.001	0.210	0.054	0.091	-0.049	0.074	0.013	-0.160	-0.241
Pflanz	-0.107	-0.227	0.066	0.069	-0.086	-0.066	-0.035	0.054	0.043	0.071
Eric	-0.108	-0.086	-0.018	-0.079	-0.549	0.117	-0.052	0.067	0.028	0.014
Richie	-0.113	0.019	-0.149	-0.002	-0.054	-0.066	-0.001	-0.040	0.043	-0.176
Eddie	0.017	0.130	0.025	-0.008	0.142	0.082	0.029	0.254	0.103	0.016
Brad	0.242	0.164	0.124	-0.022	0.029	-0.213	-0.178	-0.137	0.027	0.280
Dan	-0.015	0.188	0.038	-0.139	0.158	-0.028	-0.022	0.044	-0.013	-0.184
Russ	-0.017	0.007	-0.088	0.215	-0.122	0.049	0.142	0.140	0.087	0.165

So like I said, some of this is kind of messed up.  How does Jeremy have a negative expected winning percentage in Net Stolen Bases?  How does Mark have a NSB W% over 100%?  The answer is, I told you it's not perfect at the beginning of this post so get off my back.  

In the last grid, I highlighted the luck that fell far outside the norm.  For instance, Brad is 10-4 in the runs category but he's actually scored less runs than the league average.  On the flip side, Pflanz has a 5-8-1 record in the HR category even though his team has 13 more home runs than league average, nearly a HR/week.

I almost mustered enough energy to write a blurb on each team regarding their luck (or lack thereof).  Almost.

Week 14 Recap

Once again, the all-star break crept up on us, and I can't believe we've got 14 weeks in the books already. As has been tradition the last 2 years, when the playoff race heats up, I try to put out a weekly recap of major happenings in the league, so that everyone's clear on scenarios and big matchups. So here's your recap for week 14...

Andy 8 -Greg 2

First place vs. last place, no big surprises here.

Andy extends his first place lead to 6 games while Greg remains at the bottom of the league standings. Nice weeks from Rizzo and Jay Bruce helped Andy sweep the offensive categories with ease, something we all would have seen coming. Greg's offense was just awful this week. To the point where he doesn't have an active player in his util spot. So the whole category was a zero. In 4 categories that wouldn't make a difference, but he lost homers by just 1. Pretty shameful to leave a DL guy in your util spot for the whole week. Waste of a 4 homer week from Adam Jones, and now I'm kinda pissed that Bryce Harper's fantastic season is going to be pretty much irrelevant in the Franchise due to ignorance. Get it together Greg.

Surprisingly, Greg was able to take a couple of pitching categories from this year's pitching juggernaut. Samardzija and Volquez were great for the stuggling Thompson, and he was able to steal ERA and WHIP. Andy didn't have a bad week at all, Greinke, Liriano, and Storen were each superb, and helped him to win QS, NSV, and hang on to win K/9.

John 6 - Pflanz 4

A little late by holiday standards, but this matchup provided plenty of fireworks between two teams vying for a lower playoff seed. A combined 25 homers and 70 RBI's stole the headlines this week. Mike Trout's ridiculous statline of 8-5-10-.556-0 couldn't help John out in any category, as the only win he had on offense was net steals, thanks mostly to Carpenter's 2. Tough luck, as John was 2nd in homers this week, 3rd in runs, and 4th in RBI. And I should point out that Tulo would not have helped him this week. Pflanz wins the first of the weekly "offense of the week award" I'll be handing out from now on. He got crazy good weeks from pretty much his whole infield (that Grandal-Votto-Dozier-Machado 4 square looks terrifying), and Yoenis Cespedes was his offensive player of the week with 6-3-7-.344-0.

But John was able to make Pflanz pay on the pitching side. He finished the week second in ERA and WHIP, and 3rd in K/9. Kluber, Kershaw (Oh God I hate typing those two names next to each other), Ross and Bauer combined for 5 QS and John swept every pitching category to get the much needed weekly win. Pflanz had nice weeks from Shields and DeGrom knocked down by a tough Chris Archer outing, and 5.2 innings from Bumgarner is never what you want. On the whole, John's team had a fantastic week, and cut Pflanz's hold on 5th place to just half a game...and you know he'll be buying at the deadline, so watch out.

Mark 5 - Eric 4

In the battle of the two fastest teams in the league, Mark won the speed battle and the overall matchup which was very close in most of the categories. Eric had a great week for OBP and RBI's thanks to rookie Miguel Sano absolutely hitting his stride with a 3-2-6-.517-(-1) statline, and also 9 RBI's from Kendrys Morales. The runs and NSB's struggled due to an unhealthy Justin Upton, and the two teams tied in homeruns because these teams are tied in last at hitting the longball this year. Mark enjoyed 3 steals from you know who (Billy Hamilton, if you actually don't know who is stealing all his bases by now), and consistent runs across the board to split the offensive categories.

Aside from Cueto and Price, the team's respective aces, neither team's starters were very good on the mound this week, Mark won with all three ratio categories with some shaky numbers, and it only took 3 QS from Eric to win there. What was jawdropping was the 9 net saves Mark posted this week, including Jeurys Familia who somehow posted a +5!!! Mark had 9 Net Saves and even had a -1! Pretty nuts. Although the closeness of the win knocked Mark out of 3rd, he has a 3.5 game lead over Pflanz to remain in the 4 spot. This loss is a tough one for Eric as it knocks him down to 8th, although just 3.5 out of 6th.

Russ 8 - Brad 2

Russ has come out as a buyer and will be contending this year, Brad is packing it in early this year (extremely early, I think, for a year in which everyone is pretty tightly packed in the standings - or was...). So this outcome was somewhat predictable. R-HR-RBI were all very close still, as many of Commish's hitters went cold leading up to the break. Above average weeks from underperforming players CarGo and Matt Kemp kept him afloat, and helped him take 4 out of 5 offensive categories. For Brad, New recruit Tulo didn't add much, but I'm not sure Brad wants him to at this point. It's clear it's tank city over there right now.

Commish had a big week on the pitching side, leading the league in all 3 ratio categories by a lot. For that, I have to give myself the "Pitching Performance of the Week" award for this week. 0.97-0.86-10.70-3-5 AND I left a Koji Save and a Harvey QS on the bench due to being hungover on Saturday. Fernandez, Tanaka, Salazar, and Harvery were all on point. But Buchholz to the DL will be a big loss. While I barely hit the innings minimum (that part is strategy - not hangover), Brad had a ton of volume this week, throwing 61+ innings, more than twice the minimum. It definitely helped him to post 7 quality starts, but his ratios weren't too bad either. not bad considering Kershaw and Holland left for greener pastures.

Jeremy 7 - Dan 2

The last two matchups gave us big wins from teams that desperately needed them. There were only 9 homers hit in this matchup (cut to a frustrated John, who could have matched that with 3 players), and the offenses as a whole were largely unimpressive. The only big standout was a very impressive .373 OBP for Scanlon, tops in the league this week. Arenado continued to be a beat at the plate, with a .500 OBP, but Jeremy doubled down on Rockies infielders and also enjoyed a .538 OBP from DJ LeMahieu.

Pitching was a different story, at least for Jeremy. With a 2.81 ERA (3rd in the league this week) and a 1.00 WHIP (2nd), to go along with 8.63-6-5, Scanlon pulled off a sweep of the pitching categories. Keuchel and McHugh were great as usual, while all the guys Jeremy has been waiting for finally came through, Felix, Gio, and Quintana all has great numbers. Arrieta and Syndergaard especially were great for Dan, but a few of his guys had trouble getting out of that pesky 5th (or 4th) inning, and it killed his ratios. He narrowly lost in QS and NSV. This was a pitching sweep, but not a massacre.

The victory is a big one for Jeremy, it moves him past Brad into 10th, and while he's still double digits out of a playoff spot, it's a step in the right direction. For Dan, the loss puts him under .500, and if things keep trending this way, Dan has proven he has no problem blowing things up and stockpiling picks for a future championship run.

Richie 7 - Perk 2

A great offensive week helped Richie to take down the #2 team this week. His 32-9-19-.366-5 put him in the top 3 of every offensive category (except RBI), thanks to big weeks from VMart McCutchen, and JD Martinez. Perk is certainly feeling the loss of Miggy, on top of that, Frazier went cold this week. Perk had just 5 homers, and Richie took 4 out of 5 offensive categories.

On the mound, Both tea,s struggles with their ERA and QS, but Richie's stellar 1.08 WHIP and Perk's impressive 10.10 K/9 sttod out and got them each a win. Pineda, Cole, and the God-like Chris Sale gave Richie the QS, WHIP, and just enough ERA to take 3 categories here, while Sergio Casilla added 3 much needed net saves to tie the category up. Perk's guys were all over the place, with some great starts and saves, and some he's like to forget.

Just 5 games out of a playoff spot now, Richie has his eye on the prize, while Perka clings to second after a hang your head type of loss.

Counting All-Stars
Another annual tradition, except this one means nothing! Let's check out which of our guys made the all-star game:

Perk (8): Betances, Boxburger, Cabrera, Cruz, Chapman, Martinez, Frazier, Pollock
Richie (8): Sale, Gardner, Martinez, Cole, Papelbon, Bryant, Rodriguez, McCutchen
Andy (7): Donaldson, Bautista, Burnett, Greinke, Rosenthal, Peralta, Rizzo
Pflanz (7): Archer, Dozier, Machado, Cain, Bumgarner, DeGrom, Grandal
Scanlon (7): Hernandez, Keuchel, Escobar, Pujols, Arenado, LeMaheu, Pederson
Eric (6): Davis, Gray, Altuve, Miller, Posey, Upton
John (5): Teixeira, Gordon, Trout, Kershaw, Wacha
Brad (5): O'Day, Santiago, Martin, Scherzer, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki
Greg (5): Jones, Fielder, Gordon, Panik, Harper
Russ (4): Kipnis, Crawford, Goldschmidt, Holliday
Mark (3): Price, Vogt, Melancon
Dan (2): Perkins, Stanton

Clearly this means nothing. As soon as you think you see a pattern it kind of blows up.

Commish's Power Rankings

1. Andy - 18-12 in the last three weeks, been here all year, I don't think this can be argued.
2. Eddie - Only barely after last week's loss to Richie, if he didn't crush Russ 2 weeks ago, he's one spot lower
3. Russ - Still here after beating Brad handily, although that's nothing to brag about.
4. John - Four week winning streak, watchout.
5. Mark - Has had trouble with good teams, and with not so good ones lately.
6. Pflanz - Despite the loss, he's been hanging tough against all the good teams, played Andy to a 5-5 tie two weeks ago.
7. Richie - The win over Perk showed more than any other non-playoff team has.
8. Dan - Up and Down season, hasn't had a statement win in a while, teams in 8th, 9th, and 10th are closer than they appear...
9. Eric - He's 1-6-1 in his last 8 weeks. The 1 win? Over last place Greg.
10. Jeremy - Big win this week kept hope alive, he's only lost 1 of his last 5 weeks...
11. Brad - I still think he sold too early, and too much, but maybe another year in the basement will clear his head.
12. Greg - Pick up a DH, duh

This on the other hand, clearly means everything.

Mid-Season Review

*Written Across a few Days so numbers and ranks could be slightly off**

Having just passed week 11, are officially half way through the regular season. So let’s step back and evaluate in the form of some midseason awards:

Best Hitter (Non-Keeper): Todd Frazier (Eddie)

Honorable Mention: Justin Upton (Eric), Jason Kipnis (Russ), Prince Fielder (Greg)

Perk grabbed Frazier with pick 32 of the draft, and he’s been great all season. Amongst drafted players, he has been the most valuable hitter in anyone’s lineup, he’s 3rd in the majors in home Runs and is no slouch in any of the 5 categories. He’s a huge reason why Perk is in second place. Justin Upton was the second overall pick so it’s no shock to see him on the list. Kipnis was the 49th overall pick, and is serving as a delightful Cano replacement thank you very much. Fielder was the 29th and wasn’t actually drafted by Greg, but the room. You’re welcome Greg.

Best Pitcher (Non-Keeper): Chris Archer (Pflanz)

Honorable Mention: Gerrit Cole (Richie), Sonny Gray (Eric), Jason DeGrom (Pflanz)

The 96th pick of the draft has been excellent through 11 weeks. With 10 Quality starts and some crazy impressive ratios, Archer is the #2 pitcher in the game right now, great steal by Pflanz. He’s one of only a handful of starters with a WHIP under 1 and a K/9 in the double digits. 44 picks earlier, Pflanz landed DeGrom. As usual, Pflanz shows some great drafting skills, that’s why he’s 26-16 in the pitching categories (not counting NSV). Richie’s 27th pick also shows up here, which maybe justifies his preseason dealing of King Felix. Sonny gray was the 20th pick, and is outperforming even his lofty expectations for Eric’s team.

Best Keeper (Hitter): Paul Goldschmidt (Russ)

Honorable Mention: Bryce Harper (Greg), Miguel Cabrera (Eddie), Anthony Rizzo (Andy)

Goldschmidt remains the #1 ranked player in fantasy. Two years after Pujols was removed from playing the anchor first base role on Russ’ squad, Goldschmidt has filled the void and more. He’s in the top 5 in the majors at every category except net steals, where his 8 still separates him from the other power hitting first basemen. With Cabrera and Rizzo also having great seasons, It’s no coincidence the top 3 teams in the standings are all represented here.

Luck Factor - Take 2

My stats department missed some critical components to the Luck Factor blog post a couple weeks ago.  When I presented them the idea, no one told them that you actually want and ERA and WHIP lower than the league average.  They didn't account for it and thus, the information was not accurate.  I fired the whole department.

In that blog post, Eric was pegged as having the worst ERA and WHIP, relative to the league average.  He actually had the best marks in those categories.  You can see how the further away from the mean you were, the more this affected the final output.  Eric, John, and Jeremy's luck was probably higher than it should have been, while Dan, Greg, and Brad's luck was probably a little lower than it should have been.

After the adjustments, here are the accurate numbers through week 11 (which just happens to be one full rotation through the schedule):

• Eric is the only one who has a legitimate gripe with his luck this year.  He's stuck in 7th place despite his team putting up the second best stats thus far.  

• Very important to note that Richie's team ranks ahead of Russ's team in projected winning percentage for the simple fact that it will make him mad.  Russ says "I don't care, I'm in third place asshole.  I wish I never invited you into this league" but he cares.  He definitely cares.

• Eddie's fast start is starting to catch up with him, as he slips out of first place for the first time in many weeks.  He is beginning to regress as expected but still has a good team and should make the playoffs easily if not challenge for a bye.

• I don't know what the record for worst winning percentage is, but if Brad was unlucky he would probably be challenging it (just the facts Brad, no hard feelings).  

• Most importantly, I can still say that I am super unlucky and if I had even a smidge of good luck, I'd be in the playoff picture.  Hold the line!  Steady!  Steady!  Regression is coming!

Fan Satisfaction

This is a spin-off of a really cool idea Richie had. I was just “lucky” enough that he told me about it so that I could write this post. Basically, I looked at the Franchise history books (2008-2015) and tried to gauge what it would be like to be part of the fanbase for each of our teams. Is your fanbase spoiled, tortured, or indifferent? How many times would you, as a manager, have gotten fired by now? How are your fans feeling about you right now? Are you on the hotseat or will you never have to buy a beer in this town again? Here’s the team by team breakdown:*

*As you will notice for the purpose of this column: A victory in the third place game is great but it doesn't count as a playoff win, nor does losing in the third place game count as a playoff loss. That matchup exists purely for standings and money, but because the chance for a championship is gone after you lose once, it does not reflect on one’s playoff record.**

**I had so much fun writing this, I completely lost myself. It’s very long. You might want to wait until you have a good poop chambered to read this.

Luck Factor

Kolten Wong, Kris Bryant, and Gerrit Cole are having the breakout seasons many guessed they would have.  Andrew McCutchen and Brandon Belt are coming on strong and are top 12 ranked over the last month.  Chris Sale is a beast, and most of the rest of my roster has been perfectly complimentary to these guys.  And yet, I am stuck in 10^th place, staring at a dismal .425 winning percentage and a 7-3 deficit this week which would push me down even further.

The fuck?

So I looked at the league totals and put together some “raw” power rankings to see how unlucky I was.  I calculated them by awarding 12 points to the team that has the best total in each category, 11 points to the team that has the second best total, etc.  If there was a tie for first, each team would get 12 points and the team with the third best total would get 10 points.  It’s an imperfect system; not only is the tie thing weird, but it’s not weighted. 

For instance, let’s look at the HR category.  1^st place (Eddie) has 77 HR through week 8, leading the league and earning 12 points for that category. 2^nd place is 14 homers behind – a wide margin – and gets 11 points in the power rankings.  3^rd place, however, is only 3 HR behind 2^nd and would get 10 points.  With this point system, we’re not giving Eddie enough credit for dominating the HR category.  We’re saying the gap from 1-2 and 2-3 is the same.  It’s still an indicator of luck, but not a great one.

I tried to come up with a weighted power ranking system but I couldn’t connect the dots.  Having to find one system that could handle both the counting and ratio categories proved difficult.

My new idea is to compare our numbers to the league average.  It’ll yield a number that won’t mean much at first, but it will at least give us weighted rankings that tell us how our numbers stack up against the league average. 

Let’s go back to the HR category.  When comparing team totals against league averages, we get the following:

1) Eddie +34% vs league average

2) John +10% vs league average

3) Dan +4% vs league average

Now we’re working with something.  First place Eddie’s dominance in the HR category is accurately captured with a 24-percentage point difference over second place John, vs second place John’s 6-percentage point difference over third place Dan. 

If we push this out to the rest of the categories, we get the following results:

Ok, theres a lot to digest in there. All you have to keep in mind is that 1.00 is the league average.  Anything above 1.00 is above league average, anything below 1.00 is below league average.  I also threw in some colors to easily identify areas of notable and extreme variance from the league average.

So after all of those words and boring math talk, here’s what you came here for:

Perka is justified in his first place position.  He’s clearly been the best team this season, by any measure.  Way to go buddy.  Musto, Russell, and John have been the luckiest thus far. Dan, Greg, and Richie (vindication!) have been the unluckiest.  Brad and Scanlon, I have draft picks for your good players because you have not been unlucky and you just plan suck.  Yes, I just managed to open and close trade talks with two teams in one sentence.

Let’s push this thing into overdrive.  Go back to the examples from earlier with the HR category.  Remember how the weighted categories more accurately depicted the gap between our totals?  Let’s keep running with that idea. 

It’s easy to say that Russell has been luckier than Musto because he is 5 spots higher than his predicted spot, while Musto is only 3 spots higher than his predicted spot.  But I think we can quanitify this to see who’s actually the luckiest and unluckiest.

If the 1.00 figure is the league average, that would stand to reason that 1.00 equates to a .500% winning percentage.  So if we take the weighted totals and subtract .500 (I think that’s how it works):

Boom.  Here is your quantified luck so far from luckiest to unluckiest.

The Variance column is how far off of your expected winning percentage you are.  Russell's winning percentage is .109 higher than it should be, while Greg's is .060 lower than it should be.

First of all, nothing makes me happier than seeing that name at the top of the list.  Look at that projected winning percentage.  Gross.  That’s like a whole .009 below an acceptable winning percentage.  You should be embarrassed. 

Second and not surprisingly, we can see that the top four spots in the standings have been the luckiest teams, while the three unluckiest teams are not currently in the playoff picture.  Brad’s in 11^th despite his good fortune - imagine if he was as unlucky as Scanlon or Greg? Dan is in 5^th and has gotten the shit end of the stick - imagine if he was getting Russell luck?

Finally, was it worth writing three pages of garbage just to come to the conclusion that despite being unlucky this year, my stats are still not playoff caliber?  You may have a point.  But I just made up for the 6 weeks of bloglessness with this monster.  I’ll check back in at various points in the season with the updated numbers (maybe leave out the words) so we can either make fun of people for being unlucky or make fun of people for not deserving their success.

May 13th News of the Day: Scanlon & Richie Make a Trade

Ian Desmond becomes the second infielder to jump from Scanlon to Richie in the last 2 months

Jeremy and Richie came to terms on a deal yesterday that would send the struggling Ian Desmond (one of Scanlon's keepers) to Richie for the red hot Nolan Arenado and the injured Ben Zobrist.

From Richie's perspective, it looks to be a move made for roster flexibility reasons, with an added sell high/buy low twist. Many questioned Richie's strategy of drafting two third baseman to go along with keeper Adrian Beltre, and when Arenado got off to a great start, and Kris Bryant started tearing up the league, those concerns were justified. Richie had to bench one of those 3 every day. The tight rosters we use nowadays don't allow for a lot of roster flexibility, and that is partly done on purpose to create a more trade friendly environment.

Scanlon saw that Richie not only had a surplus of 3B's, but a lack of a consistent SS. Richie's opening day starter, Ben Zobrist, hasn't played since April 24th, and won't be back until mid-June. So last week he picked up Alexei Ramirez, but that quickly became his weakest lineup position. Meanwhile, Jeremy's backup SS, Alcides Escobar came back from his small stint on the DL on a tear, with 4 multi-hit games in his first 5. And while Yangervis Solarte wasn't having an awful season, Arenado is definitely a step up for Scanlon at 3B.

In my opinion, it's a pretty good trade on both sides. It fills a roster need for Richie, giving him a shortstop and keeping him from benching one of his three talented third-basemen every day. And since he's getting a better SS, and his 2B and outfielders are all playing great, Zobrist is a player he has no strong need for, and is therefore just a throw-in. For Jeremy, it allows him to hang on to his 'hot' shortstop and let go of the struggling one, so that he's not wasting his UT spot on a middle infielder (Only John gets to do that). Also, Zobrist will be back in a month (maybe a little more), and Jeremy can enjoy the added bonus of having a great OBP guy who you can plug in at 6 different spots in the lineup.

Overall, I think Jeremy is going to win in terms of overall production, but I think Arenado is overperforming and will come back down to Earth (maybe via a trade to take him away from Coors), and I think Desmond will break out of his slump and get back to being a top 30 fantasy option, so I love the buy-low/sell-high outlook for Richie. This isn't quite a dollar for 4 quarters trade, but it's pretty close, and usually (this time included), I'm on the side of the team getting the better player.

But of course, it's interesting that the last two trades in this league have been between these 2 teams, and Jeremy clearly won the last one. (Effectively Beltre, Gerrit Cole, Hunter Pence to Richie for Felix Hernandez and some other bums - Benoit and Syndergaard)


In other news, Eric has effectively nullified my last news of the day by picking up Marcell Ozuna again. THAT WAS A CALL-OUT LEAGUE!!! WHY DID WE LET ERIC PICK HIM UP AGAIN! I HAD FANTASIES OF HIM TAKING THE LEAGUE BY STORM AND ERIC GETTING BURNED FOR CUTTING TIES TOO EARLY!!! ALEJANDRO DE AZA IS BETTER THAN HIM?? DANNY SANTANA??? LEONYS MARTIN??  JAYSON WERTH?? (Oh wait, that one's my bad).