Week 21

14 days remaining in The Franchise regular season! Let's jump right into last week's results and what they mean going forward:

Commish became the first manager to record three shutouts in the same season when he rolled over Greg 9-0. This also puts Russ 11 wins away from clinching the regular season all-time wins record, with two weeks to go! For Greg, it only proved what I mentioned last week; his crazy run was the result of a padded schedule. He's still in sixth, but his lead has been sliced to just 4 games. Fortunately for him, the clock may run out before he can be caught, more on this later.

 Mark became the second team to clinch a playoff spot as he blew out Perk 7-2. Mark is now 7.5 games up on third place and looks to be locked into the second bye week spot, just his second bye week spot in 5 career playoff appearances. Perka was still able to gain ground on Thompson despite the loss, but is still 8.5 out of the playoffs. Perka has had a dissappointing second half, and has now lost 5 in a row.

In one of the biggest surprises of the week, John took down Dan 8-2, and pulled him out of third place for the first time in a long time. John now clings to a very small 2.5 game lead over Dan in fourth. This may seem like non-news, but the third spot is actually going to end up being pretty valuable this year. Of the three managers battling for #3 (John, Dan, Keeves), the two losers will end up having to play each other, leaing the winner to play whoever stumbles into the 6 seed. At this point the drop off between Keeves/John/Dan and Greg/Brad/Pflanz is enormous, so this tight race for the 3 seed is HUGE.

Some life from Brad this week! For the first time in 6 weeks Brad didn't take a loss, playing Andy to a 4-4 tie. It's not perfect, but he'll take it. Four games, that's all that separates Brad from his 4th career playoff appearance. Meanwhile Andy has played such a great spoiler role this year, it's more fun when he's in the race, I want his team to be fantasy relvant again, I'm buying stock in 2014 Musto!

The snoozer of the week actually may have made Bryan Bart fantasy relvant again. I laid into him at our fantasy football draft last night and all of a sudden he wants the playoffs! This season's biggest disappointment decided last night that he wanted to make a push for the playoffs, but is it too little too late? After the 7-1 defeat, Richie's team is 17 games out, however I went to make a spot start last week and realized my target had already been picked up....BY RICHIE. He's still making moves, and trying to keep it competitive?? Take notes, this is how you manage a last place team folks!!! Fantasy karma off the charts!

The final game was also a surprise, as Pflanz upended Keeves 7-3 in an upset special. Keeves really couldn't afford to lose this one, and has now dropped 5.5 games out of the 3 spot. He's obviously still safely in the playoff picture, but as I mentioned earlier, that 3 seed puts you in a far better position than 4 or 5. Pflanz is now poised to jump into the last playoff spot, trailing by just 4 games. He's doing what he always does and capitalizing on opportunities; this win was huge and he has managed to win 2 weeks in a row while his competitors have struggled.


Looking ahead to the final two weeks...

Russ (1st) vs. Bart (6.0 games out of the playoffs) - This game is becoming bigger than when it first appeared on the schedule. Russ is chasing the record books, and winning at least 1 category off Bart will put him in range of breaking his own 3 year old wins record. Bryan, on the other hand, wants to prove he still deserves a spot in this league next year. However, next week he will play Mark, and as hot as his team may be right now (24-14 in the last 4 weeks), I don't think he goes over .500 in the remaining weeks.

Mark (2nd) vs. Greg (6th) - This game means far more to Greg than it does for Mark. After the shutout, Greg desperately needs a bounceback win, but I don't think he gets it here. Mark has only lost once since week 11 and seems poised for another deep playoff run in 2013. Greg will have a chance to salvage when he plays Andy next week. His magic number right now is 16, but I think he'll be safe if he can take 8 categories from Mark and Andy.

Dan (4th) vs. Brad (4.0 games out of the playoffs) - Dan is battling for the 3 seed, Brad is keeping his playoff hopes alive! This has real MoW potential. Looking ahead, we see that John and Keeves face off in week 22, giving Dan a prime opportunity to clinch the 3 seed and an easier first round matchup, it all starts with this week, he's gotta stay in contention. Brad will have to keep up with Dan, but keep in mind that Greg is playing Mark, so as long as Brad keeps it close, I think he will be able to make up some ground for the playoffs.

John (3rd) vs. Pflanz (4.0 games out) - Here's an opportunity for Pflanz to really turn things around. He came up with the big win over a playoff team last week, can he do it again? Meanwhile John is looking to build up a bigger lead over Dan, because the week 22 matchup with Keeves is looming, and could end up being a round 1 playoff preview.

Keeves (5th) vs. Richie (out of it) - Speaking of opportunities, can Keeves get a big win over the league's worst team and jump into third? This would really mix things up going into the final week. Really looking forward to the week 22 matchups of Keeves-Johnny and Pflanz-Brad, both could have MAJOR playoff implications.

Irrelevant game of the week: Andy vs. Perka

BOTTOM LINE: Russ has #1 locked up, Mark essentially has #2 locked up, John and Dan are battling for #3, Keeves has an outside shot at #3 but is pretty much garaunteed #4 or #5. Greg, Brad, and Pflanz all have legit shots at #6, Bart has a long shot at #6, Perka has a very long shot at #6. Andy & Richie thanks for playing.

MY THOUGHTS: Looking closer at the schedules for the last two weeks, Pflanz and Brad have it tough, playing a top 4 team, then battling each other. Greg has it slightly easier facing Mark then Andy. Because Greg already has the 4 games lead, and the easier schedule, I think he will barely hang on to the last playoff spot (with Brad missing by .5 games)

Week 20

Finally on to week 20, but things are actually cooling off as the tight bye week and playoff races have become mountainous leads. Amidst all the big rankings swings and surprises of the last few weeks, this week provides us all a chance to catch our breath as we gear up for the final 6 weeks of 2013 fantasy baseball.

There was no movement this week within the top 6, but as we all know, there are always fun narratives to be discovered in this league. Let's start with yours truly. The first pace lead has become comical, at a whopping 14.5 games, in addiiton, the Commish was able to become the first manager to officially clinch a 2013 playoff spot. So the race for the number one seed is all but over, but the race for the record books is still very much in play. The most regular season wins ever was 140-72 set by Russ in 2009. The mark for best winning percentage ever was set by John's 2011 season, when he finished at 139-71, for a record .661%. Currently, Russ sits at  121-63, with three weeks to go. He's 20 wins away from setting the new wins record, and he needs to go at least 21-9 (.700) in the final 3 weeks to complete the winningest regular season in Franchise history.

Russ got closer to the record books last week with a 7-2 victory over Perk. The loss was a bad one for Eddie,who now finds himself double digit games out of the 6th and final playoff spot. However, he's still very much in it (more on this later). The only battle of the top 6 was a good one, as Keeves edged out Dan 5-4. If you've been reading these recaps for the last few weeks, you've noticed I stay pretty high level, and rarely mention specific players (usually because I try to write these in less than an hour, and don't have time to actually look into every match-up and analyze). However, I have to call attention to Keeves' Alfonso Soriano who finished this week with a .484 average, 9 runs scored, 5 homers, 18 rbi's (!!!!!), AND 2 steals! Take Soriano out of this match-up and Dan wins 8-2, even if we plug in Josh Willingham, Keeves' replacement OF, Dan wins 6-3. But Keeves (really just Soriano) was able to end Dan's 3 week winning streak and close the gap between them to a mere 4 games.

Keeves made up some ground on dan, but neither were able to cut into Mark's hold on the second and final bye week spot. Chirokas defeated Brad 6-4 this week as he regained his footing and direction, while Brad continued his free fall, losing his 5th straight week.The biggest surprise this week was Andy taking down John 7-3. John was coming off a big win over Mark that put him just 5 games out of bye week contention, now he's left to pick up the pieces, now 8 back of second place. Meanwhile Andy's last 5 weeks have been all or nothing, with scores of 9-1, 1-8, 7-3, 1-8, and 7-3, he's been out of the running all year, and remains 15 games out.

The Cinderella story continues for Greg! An 8-2 victory over Bart puts him in a great spot with 3 weeks to go. He now owns the last playoff spot, with an 8.5 game lead ovr Brad in seventh. Greg has won 4 straight weeks posting a remarkable 30-7 categorical record, and if he stays hot we could see an upset or two at the big dance.

In this week's NyQuil sponsored match-up, Pflanz snapped a 5 game losing streak with a 5-4 victory over Richie. Richie has now dropped 3 in a row and 8 of his last 10. Both of these teams are all but out of it, and seem to have already set their sights on the 2014 campaign.

Now let's look ahead to this week's match-ups, where all 12 teams are participating with meaningful results for the just the third to last time this season...

Greg's improbable rise to the 6th playoff spot has been fun, but we have to keep in mind that Brad, Eddie, Richie and Bart were the competition during his incredible 30-7 stretch. Those teams have a combined winning percentage of 43.7%. In the next two weeks, Greg will play Russ and Mark, two teams with a combined winning percentage of 61.9%. So the real test begins this week against Russ, the undisputed #1 seed. Is Greg a legit playoff team? Or has he enjoyed the benefits of a padded schedule down the stretch? In two weeks, we will have our answer.

Although Eddie may be happy about Greg's difficult next two weeks, he doesn't have a cakewalk either. He plays 2nd place Mark this week and finishes the season against 3rd place Dan. He will have a matchup against Andy in between, but he HAS to beat Mark or Dan to have a shot at the playoffs, thee are MUST win games if he wants to play into late September. Meanwhile, Mark has told me that despite having such a hot/cold roster, he's confident that the #2 seed is his, and it's tough to argue with him, as he won't play any of the big 5 teams again until the playoffs.

The only match-up between the big 5 this week is John vs. Dan. A blowout either way would impact the standings, but I don;t see that happening. I think this one will be close, giving Mark a chance to build on his second place lead and giving Keeves a good chance to sneak into the top 4.

Keeves plays Pflanz this week, a team who's only win in the last 6 weeks was against the last place team. Keeves has looked sharp recently and still has the hottest hitter in baseball to bolster his statline. With Dan and John playing each other, Matt will most certainly be able to move up one, if not two spots in the standings if he takes care of business the way he should.

Despite being the coldest team in the league, Brad's window is not quite shut. He plays Andy this week, then Dan, then Pflanz. If he can rack up some big scores against Andy and Pflanz, and stay close with Dan in week 21, he may be able to catch Greg, who is battling a tougher part of his schedule. It starts this week however, with this MUST WIN game for Brad (an active buyer at the deadline), and Musto is coming off a big win over John so this one should be good.

Time for the Nyquil Match-up of the week! zzzzzzz Richie vs. Bryan zzzzzz

Three weeks to go, and yet things are cooling off! I think this week will turn the league on it's head. If Greg loses big, Perka and Brad can jump back into it, and this is a moving week for Keeves, I'm curious to see where he will be heading into week 21.

Week 19

Although this wasn't quite a "moving" week, it set the stage for what is sure to be a fantastic pennant race. Some big blowouts this week put some guys in position to make some serious moves! Four weeks left, then it's all on the line, $800 up for grabs this year at first place, $300 ain't bad in second place either...

In the top 5, Johnny threw a wrench into everyone's plans with a HUGE 7-1 victory over Mark. John is now just 5 games out of the by week! Chirokas, who had a 6.5 game separation from Dan in third place, now holds a mere three game lead after Dan defeated Pflanz 5-4. Don't sleep on Dan, he hasn't lost in 8 weeks! If you remember, he was everyone's favorite going into this year, and he has quietly become the hottest team in the league right now, with just 4 weeks until the big dance. Keeves got a huge 8-1 win over Andy to keep the pace, but he remains 8 games out of the bye. Russ' 7-3 win over Brad puts him 13 games ahead of #2 in first place (yawn).

As for the race to 6th place, Greg just keeps on winning, with an 8-1 victory over Richie to put him into the 6 spot by 4.5 games. Greg is now 25-12 in the last 4 weeks, and is now wishing he hadn't sold off so much talent at the deadline, amazing that his team has been so good despite the recent moves. 

Perka took a bad 8-2 loss to Bryan, this knocked him all the way back to 8th, and is just 2.5 up on Bryan in 9th. Don't look now, but Bart has strung together two big wins, and is just 7.5 games out of a playoff spot, could we be witnessing the first rookie to make the playoffs in league history? 

Now let's look ahead to this week's games:

Perka faces an uphill battle, as he's 5 games out of the playoffs and has the toughest schedule to finish the season. This week he'll play Russ (1st place), next week he plays Mark (2nd place), and after a lighter matchup in week 21 against Andy, he finishes the season against Dan (3rd place), Even if Miggy wins a second triple crown, Eddie could be changing gears to football season a little earlier than the rest of us.

In one of the best matchups all week, Keeves will take on Dan in a battle for the bye week. As I mentioned, Keeves is a long shot for the bye, but 4 weeks is a long time, and the bloopers have won 4 weeks in a row against opponents not named Russ or Mark. Dan's chances are more realistic, as just 3 games separate him from grabbing his second bye week in three years.

Brad is trying desperately to stop this free fall, as he has lost 4 weeks in a row (a record of 10-28), and 6 of his last 8.  He's only 4.5 back, but it's not going to get easier for him as he takes on Mark this week with his playoff hopes dwindling. Mark on the other hand, has to come out and make a statement after getting his ass handed to him by Johnny last week. John, Dan, and Keeves all smell blood in the water, Mark has to reassert himself at the #2 spot.

I am loving the Cinderella story that is Greg Thompson right now. 3 wins in a row, and now playing Bart, the #9 team in the league, while his closest 2 competitors are playing the top 2! It's all laid out for him! A self-proclaimed "seller" who is now the frontrunner for the last playoff spot! And don't forget I called him out earlier this season for being the only veteran manager to have never made it to round 2 of the playoffs! If you're not on the bandwagon I'll move over for you! Let's go Greg!...Oh what's that? He's playing me next week? then Mark?...oh...

John will play Andy, who has not fared well against the upper echelon teams lately. Throw in the fact that John is 25-12 in his last four, and Mark and Dan had better watch out, Johnny is making a bee line for his fourth straight bye week spot. Fourth straight! Pretty damn good track record.

In the most boring game on the slate this week, Pflanz and Richie will slap fight. Pflanz has a chance to make up some ground, but unless we see a shutout, nothing good to report on here.

Four weeks to go! Every at-bat counts!

Week 18

The playoff race is officially on! The trade deadline has passed and it was definitely one of the most active in Franchise history. We had a record deals in the 7 days between the barbeque and midnight Sunday night. My Breakdown of the trades will come later this weekend, just wanted to give an update on what’s at stake this week.

The trade deadline has turned into one of the most entertaining periods of the year for this league, but don’t lose focus, the real show begins now, it’s a race to the playoffs followed by a sprint to the championship, and the pace is starting to pick up.

The top 5 remains the top 5, although 4 of the top 5 faced off against each other in week 17. Commish continues to hold off all challengers to the #1 spot, battling Johnny to a 5-5 tie and keeping 8 games between him and second place. However, Mark was able to significantly narrow the gap (which was 12 games last week) after trouncing Keeves 9-1. Mark is now firmly entrenched in the second bye week spot with a 6.5 game lead over Dan in third, but Dan has not taken his foot off the gas, with an 8-2 victory in week 17 over the rebuilding Richie. Because of the big wins for Mark and Dan, John’s draw hurt him more than it should have, and he now finds himself well out of the bye week (11 games) in fourth place. Keeves is still in good shape in 5th place, but after the big loss to Mark, he is now within striking distance of the 4 teams battling for the #6 seed, holding a 5.5 game lead over Eddie.

As for the rest of the league, the 6th spot remains wide open. Perka, Brad, Greg, and Pflanz are within 5 games of each other, all battling for that one spot. Greg continued his hot streak by defeating Perk 5-4 and picking up half a game, while Brad and Pflanz fell at the hands of the two of the league’s bottom 3 teams, losing to Bryan and Andy respectively, both by a 7-3 margin.

Richie, Bryan, and Andy, the league’s basement dwellers, actually still have a shot at the last playoff slot, albeit a long one. Bryan and Andy are 8 back of 6th place, and Richie is 9 back. There is still hope, but Richie and Andy were heavy sellers at the break, and Bryan inexplicably made no moves at all (which shouldn’t be a big surprise, as he hasn’t made a move since June. Some are questioning the rookies commitment to the league, the Commish has been notified, and Bryan’s activity has now been placed under close watch).

On to this week’s slate, Russell and his new look offense takes on Brad’s re-vamped roster. Russ isn’t in much danger here but Brad has to avoid a big loss, he can’t afford to keep declining like this, especially after dealing so many picks at the break.

In the only matchup between two of the top 5 teams, Mark will try to stay hot against Johnny D. Mark has been on a roll lately while John has been in close battles for the last two weeks. John has a chance to close the growing gap between his team and the bye week so his new pieces have got to step up here. Meanwhile, Mark is creeping closer and closer to fantasy rival Russell, and if he keeps up these winning ways, he could usurp the top spot before season end.

Dan has a chance to knock Pflanz out of playoff contention while furthering himself in a quest for the #2 bye week spot. At this point however, the notion of a bye week seems improbable for Dan, as he needs the two winningest managers in Franchise history to squander the leads they have built up. Pflanz has a lot at stake this week, as he is the farthest out of the teams who have a realistic shot at the 6 seed. This could be his last meaningful week if he ends up on the wrong end of a blowout.

Keeves, on a two week losing streak, is facing off against Andy, who has lost just once since week 11. Read that again. Andy, currently in 11th, has lost just once since week 11. That really speaks to what an awful start he got off to this season, but it also says a lot about what direction he’s going – or “was” going, until he started selling at the break. Keeves should be able to capitalize on Andy’s newly depleted roster, but I’m not so sure he’s the same team that he was two weeks ago. The fact that he stood pat at the deadline, despite the two week losing streak does not give me confidence in his squad down the stretch, Keeves need this win badly to keep the distance.

The last two match-ups this week are very similar, a couple opf fringe playoff teams will battle teams in the basement. Eddie will try to stay atop the race for the 6th playoff spot against Bart, while Greg will try to catch him against Richie. Bryan’s team has played tough lately, while Perka is struggling along. Eddie made just one move at the break, and normally that wouldn’t seem like enough, but none of the teams in the hunt for the last playoff spot look overly impressive right now. He could theoretically and plausibly lose to Bart and still retain the 6th spot at this point.

Greg has been hot lately, but no one made more deals at the deadline, and all were rebuilding moves. He has all but packed it in this season, then again, Richie made the second most deals and his team too has gone into full rebuilding mode, so a win for Greg is very plausible, and would keep in the hunt, for now at least.

Last 5 weeks of the regular season! plenty of good story lines. Stay tuned for the trade deadline review. Hopefully I can get that going over the weekend.