A Wild Commish Appeared!

I’m not even going to acknowledge the fact that I haven’t done a writeup since week one. I won’t mention that I got a new job where I have to do actual work all day instead of having hours of time to pour over stats while making entry level dough. I also won’t mention this weird shift that has happened in my brain where I can’t get into baseball yet. It’s almost August, I’m ashamed of that.  So yeah, not going to make any excuses like that.

Meanwhile, we’re in late July, typically the time in the season where The Franchise sees its most rampant activity. The trade deadline is a mere week away and this league needs a shot of adrenaline. I can’t recap the whole season in detail, but I can do some things to highlight what’s been going on during the Commish’s hiatus.

Players

First, let’s talk players. I’m so out of it I watched the homerun derby and immediately said, ‘who the hell is Adam Duvall??’. (again, I’m ashamed). But hey, no one loves looking at stats more than I do, so I did some research and now I present the All-Franchise Pre-Trade Deadline First, Second, and Third teams. (according to our specific scoring)

All Franchise First Team (through July 20th)

C - Buster Posey, Richie

1B - Edwin Encarnacion, Eric

2B - Jose Altuve, Eric

3B - Josh Donaldson, Andy

SS - Ian Desmond, Greg

OF - Mike Trout, John

OF - Mark Trumbo, Richie

OF - Mookie Betts, Pflanz

UT - David Ortiz, Russ

SP - Clayton Kershaw, John

SP - Madison Bumgarner, Pflanz

SP - Max Scherzer, Brad

SP - Jose Fernandez, Russ

RP - Kenley Jansen, Perk

RP - Zach Britton, Richie

RP - Alejandro Ramos, Pflanz

P - Stephen Strasburg, Eric

All Franchise Second Team (through July 20th)

C - Jonathan Lucroy, Andy

1B - Anthony Rizzo, Andy

2B - Daniel Murphy, Brad

3B - Kris Bryant, Richie

SS - Xander Bogaerts, Alber

OF - Carlos Gonzalez, Russ

OF - Nelson Cruz, Perk

OF - Bryce Harper, Greg

UT - Paul Goldschmidt, Russ

SP - Noah Syndergaard, Mark

SP - Drew Pomeranz, Alber

SP - Jake Arrieta, Alber

SP - Julio Teheran, Scanlon

RP - Alex Colome, Mark

RP - Andrew Miller, Russ

RP - Fernando Rodney, Greg

P - Jacob DeGrom, Greg

All Franchise Third Team (through July 20th)

C - Brian McCann, Greg

1B - Chris Davis, Alber

2B - Robinson Cano, Mark

3B - Nolan Arenado, Scanlon

SS - Manny Machado, Pflanz

OF - Jackie Bradley Jr, John

OF - Yoenis Cespedes, Andy

OF - Starling Marte, Greg

UT - Matt Carpenter, Pflanz

SP - Johnny Cueto, Eric

SP - Chris Sale, Richie

SP - Rich Hill, Richie

SP - Kyle Hendricks, Pflanz

RP - Jesus Familia, Richie

RP - Roberto Osuna, Andy

RP - Aroldis Chapman, Russ

P - Jon Lester, Pflanz

So let’s digest some of this superstar talent. If we give everyone 3 points for each 1st team member, 2 for every second team member, and 1 for every third, what do the standings look like?

Overall

1. Richie - 14
2. Russ - 14
3. Pflanz - 13
4. Greg - 11
5. Eric - 10
6. Andy - 9
7. John - 7
8. Dan - 7
9. Brad - 5
10. Perk - 5
11. Mark - 5
12. Scanlon - 3

Pretty close to the current numbers, the top 7 stayed the top 7 besides John, who I’ll mention later. Keep in mind these teams may be a bit biased, and they are a far better measure of who has the most superstar talent rather than the best teams (John for example, has a bad team, but also has the best fantasy player on both sides of the ball). But oftentimes in a keeper league with no restrictions, superstars run the show. As proof, here’s the best player on every championship team in franchise history:

2008: Ryan Braun (3rd in NL MVP voting)

2009: Zack Greinke (AL Cy Young)

2010: Roy Oswalt (6th in NL CY Young voting)

2011: Jacoby Ellsbury (2nd in AL MVP voting)

2012: Mike Trout (2nd in AL MVP voting)

2013: Paul Goldschmidt (2nd in NL MVP voting)

2014: Mike Trout (AL MVP)

2015: Nelson Cruz (6th in AL MVP voting)

So yeah, besides a couple of weird years, having a player in the top 3 of MVP or CY Young voting is pretty damn important. Star power is important. Now if we break down offense vs. defense:

Offense

1. Richie - 8
2. Andy - 8
3. Greg - 7
4. Russ - 7
5. Eric - 6
6. Pflanz - 5
7. John - 4
8. Alber - 3
9. Brad - 2
10. Perk - 2
11. Mark - 1
12. Scanlon - 1

Defense

1. Pflanz - 8
2. Richie - 6
3. Russ - 6
4. Greg - 4
5. Mark - 4
6. Alber - 4
7. Eric - 4
8. Brad - 3
9. Perk - 3
10. John - 3
11. Scanlon - 2
12. Andy - 1

And that’s kind of the first step to determining who has been the best this season on both sides of the ball. So that does it for the player analysis. Look over those lists again, those are the impact guys in our league up to now. Especially sellers. These represent the guys that you need to make a decision on (keep for next year? Or get some massive trade value?).

Stats

Let’s move onto the numbers themselves, and look at how the stats have shaken out so far this season. Let’s look at the roto standings:

And comparing that to the current standings, things don’t look too far off. The top 6 are still the top 6, though Richie’s and Eric’s record suggests a bit of unluckiness, while Alber and Russ’ matchups may have worked out more favorably. What’s interesting here is that although Andy, Brad, and even Mark are close in the roto standings, but there’s a pretty big gap in the actual standings. We can probably attribute this to some of those ratio categories, that stay far more consistent in a roto setting than on a week to week basis.

Trade Deadline Primer

Since we’re so close, I thought I would end with a little trade deadline preview. The first and most important decision you have to make is whether you’re a buyer or a seller. If you’ve read this far, you know that a lot of the numbers suggest that the top 6 teams are actually deserving of the 6 playoff spots up to this point. There hasn’t been any crazy flukiness keeping one team in the hunt or knocking another team out of it. Last year, we had a tight playoff race, which led to having essentially 9 buyers and just 3 sellers. It was a sellers market and thus a great time to be on the bottom. We saw a record number of high round draft picks flying around as all of the buyers tried to outmuscle each other heading into the playoff stretch. Did it work? For the buyers, it didn’t, as Eddie won the ship making zero impactful trade deadline moves. As for the sellers, the three sellers last year were Eric, Greg, and Brad, so for at least two of the three, it seems to have worked out very well.

This year already appears to be more of a buyers market. The top 6 have an 8 game lead over the bottom 6, which is pretty significant separation. However, there’s still 8 weeks to play, so plenty can happen before the season ends.  Here’s a breakdown of where I think people will fall as we drift closer to July 31.

Buyers

1. Greg - Trying to break a streak of 6 straight years without making the playoffs, this is the best team Greg has had since 2009. He doesn’t have any glaring needs, but shoring up his bullpen and bringing down his ratios would go a long way.
2. Pflanz - One of the perennial buyers, this is another great Pflanz team that could give him a second straight bye week season. He hasn’t lost in 6 straight weeks. Besides some additional speed on offense there are no glaring needs here. An upgrade in the outfield or an extra arm in the rotation never hurts though.
3. Eric - Last year’s big trade deadline winner has not been as dominant as he thought he would be. There’s some room for upgrade in the outfield and behind the plate. He could also use a starter, and might have to make a tough decision on a couple of his struggling ‘aces’.
4. Dan - Just 2-3-2 since week 8, I’m not sold on this team as a title contender. Besides catcher, none of the offense needs to improve, but there’s room for it. Pitching is where his focus will likely be, he could use some help in the rotation and in the pen.
5. Russ - Back in the mix despite an annoying amount of apathy, I’m still here and I’m looking to make a deal. Harvey went down, so looking for another starter or two, could also use some help in the bullpen, at 3B, and in the OF.
6. Richie - Losing 3 out of the last 4 weeks (and currently losing to Scanlon), this is the fastest falling team among the top 6. A speedy second baseman would surely help his cause, and another great bat would make this an elite offense. I don’t think the pitching needs too much of a shakeup.

???

1. Andy - This team is certainly good enough to stay in it as a buyer, but like I said, kind of a big gap. He could use some help patching the holes left by some injuries, and his pitching staff is a real mess, so lots of work to be done there. If he goes the other way and sells, Lucroy, Cespedes, Ellsbury, Fowler, Osuna, and Davis, all become interesting targets.
2. Brad - Trying to make the playoffs for the first time in 4 years, I think Brad will be buying. Unfortunately he has a lot of needs. He’s got no superstars on offense, and needs some help in the rotation and bullpen as well.
3. Scanlon - He never fully swings to one side of the fence or the other. This is his 3rd season, and he has yet to make the playoffs. If he wants in, he could use a bullpen overhaul as well as some positional upgrades. If he sells, Pujols, Lindor, and Springer will all be hot commodities.
4. John - John has never sold. Ever. He’s made the playoffs for 6th straight years but the streak is in jeopardy. He’s very stubborn and I think he will go all out buying. If I’m right, he will be trying to supe up his pitching staff and make his offense stronger, literally, as in, more power. If I’m wrong, there are too many tantalizing players to list that he could send off for very good draft picks.
5. Eddie - The title defense has been pretty rough since losing Pollock in week 1 (although I can think of another manager who made the finals last year and lost his first pick of this year in week 1 and is currently in 5th but whatever). Villar, VMart, Jansen, and even Verlander could get him some good value if he decides to sell.

Sellers

1. Mark - Seems like he will be selling this year. Heyward, Rondon, Darvish, and King Felix should fetch a pretty good price.

I’m starting to get excited, it’s the best trade deadline in all of sports. I’m sure I’m not the only one who feels like Ari Gold during the days leading up to the deadline. Phone constantly in hand, fist pumping or swearing uncontrollably with each phone call or text message. Make your intentions known on the groupme! I have just turned up the heat on The Franchise hot stove. The deadline is coming! Are you a buyer or a seller?

Week 1 Recap

Greg 9 - Brad 1: McCann You Feel the Playoff Hype?

This Grapple at Grafton Ave wasn't as severe a beat down as the score suggests. Brad was very close in all hitting categories, not just RBI's, his lone category win. He lost by 1 homer and even lost by .001 OBP, those are some pretty tough breaks. Kemp was impressive this week, but the praise stops there, the rest were pretty weak, especially Troy Tulowitzki, who came with a LARGE price tag, only to put up abysmal numbers in week 1. His offense isn't great, so it would have been nice to steal a few from Greg this week, but at least it did better than his pitching.

The pitching was a mess, worst in the league in week 1, bottom 5 in every category (and bottom 3 in 4 out of 5). Scherzer and Zimmerman pitched decent, despite a lack of strikeouts, but keeper Adam Wainwright was lacking. Ross, Wacha, and Perkins really hurt the team this week as well. This is a strong pitching team and I'm confident he will bounce back from the closer-than-it-seemed week 1 blowout.

Apparently we did a decent job with Greg's team at the draft. He had a great week 1 on both sides of the ball resulting in the 9-1 victory and current #1 spot in the standings. Brian McCann of all people led the charge for his offense, with help from Bryce Harper (who else), and Prince Fielder. The big takeaway here was offensive balance, as most teams with a heavy amount of early draft picks usually have. The only real disappointment on the offense was Ian Desmond, and he wasn't that bad.

Greg's pitching was also above average this week, although even a pedestrian output could have swept pitching from Brad's dismal week 1 squad. The effort was spearheaded by Greg's closers, as he led all teams in net saves thanks to Robertson and Papelbon (3 NSV this week). Cole Hamels was also dynamite in both of his starts, earning him the Franchise Player of the Matchup Award.

Overall, this is a great start for Greg, a team that everyone is pegging for a deep playoff run, and definitely the best team he has had since his last playoff appearance a long 8 years ago.

Perk 5 - John 5: Here's a Story, of Another SS...

The battle of the last two Franchise Champions did not disappoint as they ended in a 5-5 tie. John dominated the offense, thanks to MLB opening week headline stealer Trevor Story, the no-brainer choice for Franchise Player of the Week. John could 'only' capitalize on 5 of Story's home runs and 8 of his RBI's after leaving him on the bench for Story's 2-dinger opener, but wow I can't really say anything that hasn't already been said. What a start to an MLB career, and I kinda feel like it wouldn't have happened if he didn't play shortstop and if John didn't draft him. Story overshadowed some great weeks for Adrian Gonzalez and Carlos Correa, but I'm sure John didn't mind. John's offense still doesn't look as formidable as it was in years past, but this great offensive output should instill confidence going forward.

John's pitching is where the wheels came off on this matchup. Kershaw was spectacular but one man cannot win you a week (although Kershaw did win him the QS category with his 2 games in the opening week). Unimpressive stuff from Kluber and McHugh tanked his ratios, and his closers just didn't get the opportunities. This is already a shaky staff behind the 2 former Cy Youngs, but John is hoping weeks like this don't become a trend.

The championship defense begins with a tie, and I'm sure Perk is happy with that after being on the wrong side of the Trevor Story story. The champ's offense put up a below average week, lowlighted of course by AJ Pollock's elbow fracture. Pollock was a valuable asset, and unsung hero, in the title run last year, and on an offense that was already projected as weak, this injury is a disaster.  Todd Frazier was the closest to having a good week, but this offense really stunk for the most part, and I don't want to read too much into the first week, but that may be indicative of offensive struggles to come.

The pitching was definitely in a better spot than the hitting in week 1, led by Perk's bullpen. It was 2 net saves for each of his three closers; Rosenthal, Jansen, and Gregerson, who all provided great ratio help as well. Rosenthal's line of 0.00-0.90-0-21.6-2 was especially noteworthy. The starters were quiet, save for a nice outing from Carlos Rodon, he will need more from guys like Carrasco and Stroman against better pitching staffs. But for now, Perk should be happy to let the bullpen carry him to a tie that he otherwise wouldn't have had any business in.

Dan 6 - Eric 3: Dan Now Title Favorite! Eric Destined for 0-22 Season?

Yes, I know it's only week 1, but you had to get a little extra satisfaction waking up this morning to see that Eric lost by 3 categories. The heavy favorite for the 2016 championship came out flat in week 1 both offensively and defensively. His best player this week? Wait for it....Brock Holt! As much as I love Holt, who had a very solid week 1, that has to be disappointing for Eric. But Altuve played fine, the Seager brothers looked sharp, and he played against a good offense. He seriously should not be worried about this offense going forward.

On the pitching side, things were better for Eric, but still not up to par. Price, the #1 #2 pick in the draft looked good, and was rained out of a second appearance. Iglesias was dazzling in his first two starts, Gray looked great, and Jeanmar Gomez had a couple of saves. The pitching wasn't too bad at all, just happened to be facing a staff that was slightly better this week. As much as I love to see the overwhelming pre-season favorite at the bottom of the standings, I know it's only a matter of time before things start to click.

I would say that Dan was pleasantly surprised by his team's week 1 victory. I certainly didn't see it coming. Despite the midweek injury to Ben Revere, Dan's offense was superbly balanced this week.  No tremendous performances, but no poor ones either. Chris Davis, a crowd favorite in Alberland, had a nice 2 homer week, while Ian Kinsler, playing his first game away from Perk in years, kept up his championship level play.

The pitching was great this week for Dan, Arrieta picked up where he left off with two excellent starts, earning him The Franchise Player of the Matchup award. Verlander, originally brought in to make Kinsler feel more at home (they both played for Perk for 18 years after all), contributed a quality start and some nice ratios. Aaron Sanchez also played well in the win. Net Saves was in reach as well, but blown saves from Hoover and Grilli shut that down. To sum it up, I'm sure Dan is happy with an early win over a formidable opponent, but don't get used to seeing Eric on the losing end of these matchups.

Andy 5 - Jeremy 4: Kids Back, Back, Back, Back...GONE

The Andy Offense hype is REAL. Week 1 overreaction alert, but this could be the best offense we've ever seen. Unfortunately, our league records history is all messed up because we used to have 25 man rosters, so we can never measure exactly how good it is, but I am blown away at the 47-14-46-.419 line Musto put up. I honestly don't remember many lines like that since the roster condensed. To cherry pick some stats to prove a point: If you combine the week 1 stats for last year's champ plus this year's most hyped team, they still don't beat Andy in those 4 categories. Two not-awful teams - combined! This unreal offensive explosion was courtesy of Andy's keepers for the most part, as Rizzo, Bautista, and Donaldson, The Franchise Player of the Matchup, combined for 17-8-23, numbers that were all very close to Scanlon's team totals this week. DJ LeMahieu, Jay Bruce, and Dexter Fowler would have been the best players on several teams this week, but are relegated to a footnote in this prolific offense. I expect things to continue offensively at a staggering pace for Kids Back.

For all of his emphasis on slugging this year, Andy's pitching seems to have been overlooked by the veteran manager. It's a bad pitching staff, and it performed the way most people expected it to. Of the small number of notable stars in this staff, Zack Greinke pitched poorly in his first week in the desert, and Wade Davis didn't see enough action to have an impact. The best output came from Roberto Osuna, with a couple of saves and a high k/9. There were other various contributions (Volquez's crazy k/9 for instance), but overall this was a mediocre effort from a weak pitching staff, and put a damper on Andy's red hot offense. I expect this to be a theme from Musto this season.

Scanlon may have drawn the short straw by playing Homers R Us this week, but his offense was well below average anyway, so he doesn't have much of an excuse. Starlin Castro provided the most pop for him among a sea of discouraging numbers from Blackmon, Pujols, and Springer. This offense is run of the mill anyway, but this was an underwhelming performance.

The pitching in this matchup was almost the inverse of the offense. Jeremy's pitcher was great in this one, top 3 in the league on the week. He was in the top 3 in every ratio category and had 4 net saves to boot (although losing the category by 1 to Andy). In addition, he was just 1 quality start from keeping this matchup at a tie. He got solid contributions from the whole staff as pretty much every player had a good week. Salazar led the charge, but Keuchel, Quintana. Madson, Street, Betances, Doolittle all pitched in enough to give him a great week and to stop the bleeding and hold things at 6-4. Despite the historically good debut for Andy's offense, this one really could have gone either way, and that should be concerning for Musto.

Mark 8 - Pflanz 1: New Castle, Same King

If you want the most well rounded showing of excellence from round 1, look no further than Mark's squad. This was a well executed beating from the start, a 5 category domination on offense, combined with a ratio-fueled, finesse-driven defensive smackdown. The household name Eugenio Suarez (of course) led the offense with a huge week, while Puig and Cano turned in performances that would typically earn them some more credit. Abreu, Heyward, Frankel were also part of the 5 category force that was Mark's offense this week. This is a very good offense and although I don't think they can maintain this exceptional pace, Mark can get used to winning a majority of offensive categories this season. 

On the pitching side, King Feliz, making yet another opening day start with a new Franchise team, didn't disappoint. His 2 QS, 11+ K/9 and ERA/WHIP under 1 earns him The Franchise Player of the Matchup. He was a force and set the tone for Mark's impressive week on the mound. If Noah Syndergaard had made a second start, that honor might have been his. He was splendid in his 6 innings of shutout ball, with a K/9 of 13.5 and a whip of 0.67. Kenta Maeda made up the third leg of a very impressive starting rotation with 6 shutout innings of his own. The only weak spots here were Chris Archer and Shawn Tolleson. Mark had a lot of front loaded starters who were able to get him the ratio categories, and the offense did the rest, 

Pflanz kicked off the season with a subpar performance at the plate and on the mound. Manny Machado was great in week 1, providing some much needed pop, but  Votto, Kipnis, and Mookie kept this offense in check with their underwhelming performances. Facing the best overall offensive performance of week 1, Pflanz had no chance to win anything here. 

On the mound, Pflanz's squad performed a little better, with Bumgarner looking great as usual, and Vincent Velasquez living up to and exceeding the hype thus far. Jeffress' 3 net saves were the highlight of the bullpen, among a Hinojosa blown save and some decent numbers from Ramos. Jefress really saved him here, as without those 3 saves, he's looking at a week 1 shutout. Smyly and Fiers certainly didn't help with their poor starts, but Pflanz still peiced together enough to tie Mark in QS. Still, it's a bad loss for a team that didn't have high expectations coming into the year. He can pretty much only go up from here...

Russ 6 - Richie 4: Schwarber? I Hardly Knew Her!

In what is becoming a good brotherly rivalry, I was able to take down big bro by a 6-4 margin. This was the most even competition of week 1 across all categories. Carlos Gonzalez did a great job of validating his keeper status with 3 homers, good enough for Franchise Player of the Matchup, while Goldschmidt, Ortiz, and the young Stephen Piscotty also pitched in, with a combined 11-5-16 between them. The big storyline here of course is the loss of my first pick in the draft, C/Of Kyle Schwarber. I had high hopes for the young slugger this year as evidenced by my draft selection, and for an offense that was looking pretty solid, there is now a giant hole at a tough to fill position. The injury bug has run rampant among my teams for the least few years now and I really don't care for it. Even with the early loss of Schwarber, the offense came together to win 4 categories. 

On the mound, Fernandez had a weird start, with 5 innings and 13 K's, but I'll take it. His impressive ratios, in tandem with relievers O'Day and Miller, helped me to win WHIP and K/9, which aligns well with my overall strategy, and hopefully we can continue to execute as intended going forward. As much as a subpar Harvey performance was a bummer, pick-up Juan Nicasio more than made up for it with a great start, and helped to win a couple of categories.

Richie was middle of the road on both sides of the ball, although for his team this year, that's actually a disappointment. He's got a great squad and I think we will see improvement in the future. Posey was great as expected, but Bryant and Duda under-performed. His Pittsburgh outfielders weren't bad, and gave him the boost in OBP that he needed to win the category. 

Chris Sale was the stud on the mound for Richie, with 2 QS and a solid K/9. Unfortunately, solid is not good enough when you're Chris Sale. Richie could have used a bump there. James Shields added another 2 QS to give Richie a commanding win the category, while Britton saved 2 and Richards helped with the ratios. Richie's team is pretty balanced, but needs more out of his top line players to live up to the playoff hopes. 

Post-Draft Power Rankings 2016

Welcome to the post-draft power rankings for the Franchise IX. The rankings are purely numbers driven with no bias. I take multiple projection systems (none of which are ESPN) that combine all projected stats to get a score for each player. Because math!

Player Score Examples

Rank	Score	Player
1	18.90	Clayton Kershaw
2	18.25	Mike Trout
13	14.12	Josh Donaldson
45	11.83	King Felix
100	9.67	Francisco Lindor
150	8.36	Russell Martin
200	7.73	Julio Teheran
300	6.35	Lonnie Chisenhall

The score difference between each player is less significant as the draft gets deeper (i.e. over 4 points between Trout and Donaldson, while Lindor to Chisenhall is 3 points of a difference).

The rankings are in the following format:

             a) Score
             b) Best draft pick
             c) Worst draft pick
             d) MC analysis