A Wild Commish Appeared!

I’m not even going to acknowledge the fact that I haven’t done a writeup since week one. I won’t mention that I got a new job where I have to do actual work all day instead of having hours of time to pour over stats while making entry level dough. I also won’t mention this weird shift that has happened in my brain where I can’t get into baseball yet. It’s almost August, I’m ashamed of that.  So yeah, not going to make any excuses like that.

Meanwhile, we’re in late July, typically the time in the season where The Franchise sees its most rampant activity. The trade deadline is a mere week away and this league needs a shot of adrenaline. I can’t recap the whole season in detail, but I can do some things to highlight what’s been going on during the Commish’s hiatus.

Players

First, let’s talk players. I’m so out of it I watched the homerun derby and immediately said, ‘who the hell is Adam Duvall??’. (again, I’m ashamed). But hey, no one loves looking at stats more than I do, so I did some research and now I present the All-Franchise Pre-Trade Deadline First, Second, and Third teams. (according to our specific scoring)

All Franchise First Team (through July 20th)

C - Buster Posey, Richie

1B - Edwin Encarnacion, Eric

2B - Jose Altuve, Eric

3B - Josh Donaldson, Andy

SS - Ian Desmond, Greg

OF - Mike Trout, John

OF - Mark Trumbo, Richie

OF - Mookie Betts, Pflanz

UT - David Ortiz, Russ

SP - Clayton Kershaw, John

SP - Madison Bumgarner, Pflanz

SP - Max Scherzer, Brad

SP - Jose Fernandez, Russ

RP - Kenley Jansen, Perk

RP - Zach Britton, Richie

RP - Alejandro Ramos, Pflanz

P - Stephen Strasburg, Eric

All Franchise Second Team (through July 20th)

C - Jonathan Lucroy, Andy

1B - Anthony Rizzo, Andy

2B - Daniel Murphy, Brad

3B - Kris Bryant, Richie

SS - Xander Bogaerts, Alber

OF - Carlos Gonzalez, Russ

OF - Nelson Cruz, Perk

OF - Bryce Harper, Greg

UT - Paul Goldschmidt, Russ

SP - Noah Syndergaard, Mark

SP - Drew Pomeranz, Alber

SP - Jake Arrieta, Alber

SP - Julio Teheran, Scanlon

RP - Alex Colome, Mark

RP - Andrew Miller, Russ

RP - Fernando Rodney, Greg

P - Jacob DeGrom, Greg

All Franchise Third Team (through July 20th)

C - Brian McCann, Greg

1B - Chris Davis, Alber

2B - Robinson Cano, Mark

3B - Nolan Arenado, Scanlon

SS - Manny Machado, Pflanz

OF - Jackie Bradley Jr, John

OF - Yoenis Cespedes, Andy

OF - Starling Marte, Greg

UT - Matt Carpenter, Pflanz

SP - Johnny Cueto, Eric

SP - Chris Sale, Richie

SP - Rich Hill, Richie

SP - Kyle Hendricks, Pflanz

RP - Jesus Familia, Richie

RP - Roberto Osuna, Andy

RP - Aroldis Chapman, Russ

P - Jon Lester, Pflanz

So let’s digest some of this superstar talent. If we give everyone 3 points for each 1st team member, 2 for every second team member, and 1 for every third, what do the standings look like?

Overall

1. Richie - 14
2. Russ - 14
3. Pflanz - 13
4. Greg - 11
5. Eric - 10
6. Andy - 9
7. John - 7
8. Dan - 7
9. Brad - 5
10. Perk - 5
11. Mark - 5
12. Scanlon - 3

Pretty close to the current numbers, the top 7 stayed the top 7 besides John, who I’ll mention later. Keep in mind these teams may be a bit biased, and they are a far better measure of who has the most superstar talent rather than the best teams (John for example, has a bad team, but also has the best fantasy player on both sides of the ball). But oftentimes in a keeper league with no restrictions, superstars run the show. As proof, here’s the best player on every championship team in franchise history:

2008: Ryan Braun (3rd in NL MVP voting)

2009: Zack Greinke (AL Cy Young)

2010: Roy Oswalt (6th in NL CY Young voting)

2011: Jacoby Ellsbury (2nd in AL MVP voting)

2012: Mike Trout (2nd in AL MVP voting)

2013: Paul Goldschmidt (2nd in NL MVP voting)

2014: Mike Trout (AL MVP)

2015: Nelson Cruz (6th in AL MVP voting)

So yeah, besides a couple of weird years, having a player in the top 3 of MVP or CY Young voting is pretty damn important. Star power is important. Now if we break down offense vs. defense:

Offense

1. Richie - 8
2. Andy - 8
3. Greg - 7
4. Russ - 7
5. Eric - 6
6. Pflanz - 5
7. John - 4
8. Alber - 3
9. Brad - 2
10. Perk - 2
11. Mark - 1
12. Scanlon - 1

Defense

1. Pflanz - 8
2. Richie - 6
3. Russ - 6
4. Greg - 4
5. Mark - 4
6. Alber - 4
7. Eric - 4
8. Brad - 3
9. Perk - 3
10. John - 3
11. Scanlon - 2
12. Andy - 1

And that’s kind of the first step to determining who has been the best this season on both sides of the ball. So that does it for the player analysis. Look over those lists again, those are the impact guys in our league up to now. Especially sellers. These represent the guys that you need to make a decision on (keep for next year? Or get some massive trade value?).

Stats

Let’s move onto the numbers themselves, and look at how the stats have shaken out so far this season. Let’s look at the roto standings:

And comparing that to the current standings, things don’t look too far off. The top 6 are still the top 6, though Richie’s and Eric’s record suggests a bit of unluckiness, while Alber and Russ’ matchups may have worked out more favorably. What’s interesting here is that although Andy, Brad, and even Mark are close in the roto standings, but there’s a pretty big gap in the actual standings. We can probably attribute this to some of those ratio categories, that stay far more consistent in a roto setting than on a week to week basis.

Trade Deadline Primer

Since we’re so close, I thought I would end with a little trade deadline preview. The first and most important decision you have to make is whether you’re a buyer or a seller. If you’ve read this far, you know that a lot of the numbers suggest that the top 6 teams are actually deserving of the 6 playoff spots up to this point. There hasn’t been any crazy flukiness keeping one team in the hunt or knocking another team out of it. Last year, we had a tight playoff race, which led to having essentially 9 buyers and just 3 sellers. It was a sellers market and thus a great time to be on the bottom. We saw a record number of high round draft picks flying around as all of the buyers tried to outmuscle each other heading into the playoff stretch. Did it work? For the buyers, it didn’t, as Eddie won the ship making zero impactful trade deadline moves. As for the sellers, the three sellers last year were Eric, Greg, and Brad, so for at least two of the three, it seems to have worked out very well.

This year already appears to be more of a buyers market. The top 6 have an 8 game lead over the bottom 6, which is pretty significant separation. However, there’s still 8 weeks to play, so plenty can happen before the season ends.  Here’s a breakdown of where I think people will fall as we drift closer to July 31.

Buyers

1. Greg - Trying to break a streak of 6 straight years without making the playoffs, this is the best team Greg has had since 2009. He doesn’t have any glaring needs, but shoring up his bullpen and bringing down his ratios would go a long way.
2. Pflanz - One of the perennial buyers, this is another great Pflanz team that could give him a second straight bye week season. He hasn’t lost in 6 straight weeks. Besides some additional speed on offense there are no glaring needs here. An upgrade in the outfield or an extra arm in the rotation never hurts though.
3. Eric - Last year’s big trade deadline winner has not been as dominant as he thought he would be. There’s some room for upgrade in the outfield and behind the plate. He could also use a starter, and might have to make a tough decision on a couple of his struggling ‘aces’.
4. Dan - Just 2-3-2 since week 8, I’m not sold on this team as a title contender. Besides catcher, none of the offense needs to improve, but there’s room for it. Pitching is where his focus will likely be, he could use some help in the rotation and in the pen.
5. Russ - Back in the mix despite an annoying amount of apathy, I’m still here and I’m looking to make a deal. Harvey went down, so looking for another starter or two, could also use some help in the bullpen, at 3B, and in the OF.
6. Richie - Losing 3 out of the last 4 weeks (and currently losing to Scanlon), this is the fastest falling team among the top 6. A speedy second baseman would surely help his cause, and another great bat would make this an elite offense. I don’t think the pitching needs too much of a shakeup.

???

1. Andy - This team is certainly good enough to stay in it as a buyer, but like I said, kind of a big gap. He could use some help patching the holes left by some injuries, and his pitching staff is a real mess, so lots of work to be done there. If he goes the other way and sells, Lucroy, Cespedes, Ellsbury, Fowler, Osuna, and Davis, all become interesting targets.
2. Brad - Trying to make the playoffs for the first time in 4 years, I think Brad will be buying. Unfortunately he has a lot of needs. He’s got no superstars on offense, and needs some help in the rotation and bullpen as well.
3. Scanlon - He never fully swings to one side of the fence or the other. This is his 3rd season, and he has yet to make the playoffs. If he wants in, he could use a bullpen overhaul as well as some positional upgrades. If he sells, Pujols, Lindor, and Springer will all be hot commodities.
4. John - John has never sold. Ever. He’s made the playoffs for 6th straight years but the streak is in jeopardy. He’s very stubborn and I think he will go all out buying. If I’m right, he will be trying to supe up his pitching staff and make his offense stronger, literally, as in, more power. If I’m wrong, there are too many tantalizing players to list that he could send off for very good draft picks.
5. Eddie - The title defense has been pretty rough since losing Pollock in week 1 (although I can think of another manager who made the finals last year and lost his first pick of this year in week 1 and is currently in 5th but whatever). Villar, VMart, Jansen, and even Verlander could get him some good value if he decides to sell.

Sellers

1. Mark - Seems like he will be selling this year. Heyward, Rondon, Darvish, and King Felix should fetch a pretty good price.

I’m starting to get excited, it’s the best trade deadline in all of sports. I’m sure I’m not the only one who feels like Ari Gold during the days leading up to the deadline. Phone constantly in hand, fist pumping or swearing uncontrollably with each phone call or text message. Make your intentions known on the groupme! I have just turned up the heat on The Franchise hot stove. The deadline is coming! Are you a buyer or a seller?