An 8th regular season is in the books, and now we can turn our vision towards the playoffs. For a majority of the playoff teams, there wasn't much of a race to get in, and now things will heat up quickly in our single elimination format.
Apologies for the lack of writeups down the stretch. I was caught up with football and depression about my team, and work and you know how that goes. Thanks to Richie for writing that strength of schedule piece and for keeping everyone engaged on the Groupme.
The only real race going on in week 22 was the race between John and Richie for the final playoff spot. Both were buyers at the deadline and went in hard to try and make the dance. But in week 22, John won convincingly 9-1 over 12th place Brad, and left Richie in the dust.
For the non playoff teams, enjoy football season, and for the smart ones who sold, enjoy next year's draft.
Brad will miss the playoffs for a second straight season. In 8 Franchise seasons, he's made the playoffs 4 times.
For Greg, this marks the 6th straight year missing the playoffs, an all time Franchise record. In 8 seasons as manager, he's made the dance just once.
Eric could not build upon the greatest rookie season in the last 7 years, and sophomore slumped his way to 9th place.
For Jeremy (buyer at the deadline, finished 14 games out of the playoffs), Dan (7.5 games out, and Richie (7.5 games out), this will be a tough stretch in their Franchise careers.
It's another season without the playoffs for second year manager Jeremy, who has yet to make his Franchise playoff debut.
For Richie, he missed the playoffs for the second time in his 3 year Franchise career.
Dan fails to make the playoffs for just the first time in the last 3 years, He has made the dance 3 times in his 6 years as manager, with 2 championship appearances, and 1 title.
So let's now take a look at the playoff matchups. Congrats to Andy and Pflanz, who got the coveted bye weeks.
For Andy, it's his second straight year in the playoffs, and the third time he's made it in his 7 years as manager. He really dominated this season wire to wire, and didn't falter much, this is his first time ever having a playoff bye week. His weekly record was 16-4-2, and his 130 matchup wins ranks 7th all time, pretty damn good.
On offense, he was carried by Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Anthony Rizzo, all of whom ranked in the top 6 (all rankings according to Ziguana.com) in our scoring format. He really cleaned up in runs and RBI's, where he had his best offensive win-loss records, and ranked 4th and 1st respectively. There's also good balance here, as Andy was in the top half of the league in every category. But pitching is where Andy would kill you. He won 64% of his pitching matchups this year, behind Cy Young contender Zack Greinke, and super sleeper Fransisco Liriano. Andy led the league in QS, and was top 5 in all 3 ratios categories.
For Pflanz, it's his 5th career Franchise playoffs in 8 seasons, but first in the last 3 years. This is his first time ever getting a bye week as well. He led the league in Runs and homeruns, he was also top 5 in every other category. Cespedes has essentially been a one man team for the last month and Votto is playing like it's 2011. Price, Bumgarner, and Archer is a scary big 3 that might even be able to contend with Andy's pitching. Pflanz put up some truly impressive ratios, leading the league in WHIP and K/9 and placing 3rd in ERA. Pflanz , like Andy, can hurt you on both sides of the ball, especially power at the plate and strikeouts.
The first round 1 matchup is between neighborhood rivals Eddie and John, these two have never met in the playoffs despite both having managed in the league for 8 seasons. For Eddie, this is his 4th career playoff appearance, the first in 4 years. It's the offense you need to worry about with Perk, he ranked top 3 in homers, runs, and RBIs. With Pollock and Seager red hot, and a healthy Miggy back in the lineup, Perk's offense is white hot. The pitching was decent for Perk this year. Recently, Verlander is pitching great and Chapman and Betances have kept his k/9 numbers up all yeas. Eddie had a rough ERA and WHIP during the regular season, but was fantastc with K/9 and NSV. I should note however, Perk lost 3 of the last 4 weeks going into the playoffs, including a 6-4 loss to John in week 21.
The defending champ is making his 6th straight playoff appearance. This is the longest active streak in the Franchise and ties the longest ever (set by Russ in 2013). John has been on a crazy tear since week 11 (when he was sitting in 9th place!). Johnny has done it again, he's put together a great team that is good at the right time. I won't even bother with his season long numbers because he really was bad in the first half and I don't have those splits. I will say that Clayton Kershaw has been the #1 pitcher in baseball for the last month (and probably longer) and John has grouped him up with 4 other starters who have been tearing it up. John has somehow grabbed the next breakout superstar AGAIN with Carlos Correa. Don't look at the names in John's lineup, it will only confuse you as to how and why he's in the playoffs. On top of that, he's already winning 7-2.
And in the other round 1 matchup, it's Mark vs. Russ, both making their 7th playoff appearance in 8 years, meeting in the playoffs for the third time (first non championship) in a historic blah blah blah. I don't care. My belief in this team disappeared a long time ago. From week 14-19 this was the best team in The Franchise, it was completely dominant, and controlled every facet of every category. Now, it's been banged up, shut down, and wrung out. classic case of peaking too early. This team ripped off a 5 week stretch where it won 39 categories, that's just a hair under 8 per week. But in the 3 weeks leading u to the playoffs, it went 8-21. Everyone is slumping, we all know what's going on with Matt Harvey and his fucking innings limit, and no one knows what's going on with Johnny Cueto. The guy literally forgot how to pitch. 28 runs in his last 26 innings...that's not a small sample size, 5 straight starts allowing 4 or more runs. I traded a first round pick for a guy that I am voluntarily going to bench in a playoff week. Is that a fucking joke? Why can this shit never go my way?
Mark was unstoppable in steals and saves this year but average in everything else. But in this game, it only matters how hot your guys are in the playoffs. He comes into the playoffs having won 4 of his last 5 weeks, including a 7-2 win over Russ in week 20, sounds like they're clicking at the right time. in the last 30 days he's got 7 hitters and 4 pitchers in the top 100.
Sometimes it's just not in the cards. But for me, it seems to never be in the cards. Not sure what I did to deserve this, I pour more into this league than anyone, but it sucks to build such a great team and literally be helpless on Wednesday night, staring up a mountain, down 14 RBI's and over .200 OBP points already. This part of the writeup isn't funny, it isn't interesting, it's depressing. Weeks like this make me question why I do this.
But who am I kidding...I looked ahead and Harvey is pitching against A-Rod on Sunday Night Baseball this week! Ok, this might be why I do this, Chip and a chair!
Good luck everyone!
Signed,
your forever hopeful, yet always hapless Commish
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Strength of Schedule
The beauty of a 12 team league is that everyone plays everyone twice. The schedules are balanced and fair, with the understanding that some teams look vastly different post-trade deadline. That being said, some have an easier path to the playoffs than others. The following is the strength of schedule for the remainder of the season:
| Top 6 opponent | *Opponent Proj W% | Opponent Act W% | Opponent Avg W% | |
| Jeremy | 3 | 0.550 | 0.554 | 0.552 |
| Russ | 3 | 0.534 | 0.526 | 0.530 |
| Mark | 3 | 0.521 | 0.529 | 0.525 |
| Andy | 1 | 0.517 | 0.498 | 0.507 |
| Eric | 2 | 0.500 | 0.507 | 0.504 |
| John | 2 | 0.482 | 0.513 | 0.497 |
| Perk | 3 | 0.494 | 0.493 | 0.494 |
| Dan | 2 | 0.499 | 0.481 | 0.490 |
| Greg | 1 | 0.475 | 0.489 | 0.482 |
| Richie | 2 | 0.483 | 0.472 | 0.477 |
| Brad | 2 | 0.478 | 0.466 | 0.472 |
| Pflanz | 1 | 0.468 | 0.472 | 0.470 |
From top to bottom:
Jeremy has the most difficult schedule down the stretch as 3 of his final 4 regular season opponents are currently in the top 6. What's more, he catches Russ (1st) and Andy (2nd) in weeks 20 & 21. All four of his opponents were buyers at the deadline.
Russ also catches 3 playoff teams including a pivotal season finale against Andy in what could determine the regular season champion. He's in no danger of falling out of the playoff picture but there are others lurking in the bye week waters threatening to make a move.
Mark checks in with the third toughest remaining schedule as he plays Jeremy (9th), Russ (1st), Richie (8th), and Perk (3rd). He has a chance to bury the playoff hopefuls and he might be catching The Commissioner at the right time, but if he falters he could have a nerve-racking week 22 on his hands.
Andy closes with the fourth toughest schedule, though only one of those teams is a current playoff team (Russ, 1st place). Andy sits only 3 games behind Russ for first place and has the easier schedule. As previously mentioned, Andy and Russ look to be on a collision course for a week 22 showdown.
Eric has a slightly difficult schedule down the stretch but he's already waived the white flag on 2015.
John holds a small lead over 7th place and will have to earn his playoff spot in 2015. He finishes with Russ (1st), Richie (8th), Perk (3rd), and Brad (11th). The match up with Brad at the end of the season could be his life-saver.
Perk catches the "weakest" playoff teams but they're right on his tail. With 7 games separating 3rd-6th there will be a lot of jockeying for position. Every win and every loss has essentially twice the impact...Cabrera couldn't have resurfaced at a better time.
Dan sits 3.5 games out and has a favorable schedule down the stretch. If he can put up a respectable number against Andy this week he finishes with Eric (10th), Pflanz (4th), and the golden goose, Greg in the season finale. If Pflanz stumbles in the next two weeks it could set up a loser-go-home playoff match in week 21.
Greg has 4 more opponents.
Richie is staring down the barrel of a win-and-you're-probably-in scenario, as he plays Greg (12th), John (6th), Mark (5th), and Jeremy (9th). Any wins or losses against John and Mark will be amplified in the chase for the final playoff spot. One more loss and it could be curtains for the league's best looking manager.
Brad, like Greg, has 4 more opponents.
Pflanz wins the strength of schedule lottery. After this week (Perk, 3rd) he has no current playoff opponents and two sellers. Pflanz is 8 games out of a bye right now but with the top 3 teams facing difficult opponents down the stretch, it's not unfathomable that Pflanz could challenge for a bye.
*The opponent projected winning percentage was taken from my Luck Calculator. I was only going to include that piece if I could prove it's validity. Take a look:
Greg has 4 more opponents.
Richie is staring down the barrel of a win-and-you're-probably-in scenario, as he plays Greg (12th), John (6th), Mark (5th), and Jeremy (9th). Any wins or losses against John and Mark will be amplified in the chase for the final playoff spot. One more loss and it could be curtains for the league's best looking manager.
Brad, like Greg, has 4 more opponents.
Pflanz wins the strength of schedule lottery. After this week (Perk, 3rd) he has no current playoff opponents and two sellers. Pflanz is 8 games out of a bye right now but with the top 3 teams facing difficult opponents down the stretch, it's not unfathomable that Pflanz could challenge for a bye.
*The opponent projected winning percentage was taken from my Luck Calculator. I was only going to include that piece if I could prove it's validity. Take a look:
| Manager | Wk 12 W% | Variance | He was | Expected W% to | Wk 19 W% | W% is | Result |
| Perka | 0.609 | 0.083 | lucky | Worsen | 0.564 | Worse | Expected |
| Brad | 0.432 | 0.060 | lucky | Worsen | 0.394 | Worse | Expected |
| Russ | 0.545 | 0.052 | lucky | Worsen | 0.603 | Improved | Unexpected |
| Andy | 0.623 | 0.036 | lucky | Worsen | 0.586 | Worse | Expected |
| Mark | 0.532 | 0.007 | Neutral | Neutral | 0.533 | Neutral | Expected |
| Greg | 0.450 | -0.007 | Neutral | Neutral | 0.372 | Worse | Unexpected |
| John | 0.468 | -0.010 | unlucky | Improve | 0.525 | Improved | Expected |
| Pflanz | 0.500 | -0.012 | unlucky | Improve | 0.542 | Improved | Expected |
| Dan | 0.514 | -0.028 | unlucky | Improve | 0.506 | Worse | Unexpected |
| Richie | 0.450 | -0.051 | unlucky | Improve | 0.492 | Improved | Expected |
| Jeremy | 0.405 | -0.078 | unlucky | Improve | 0.458 | Improved | Expected |
| Eric | 0.473 | -0.078 | unlucky | Improve | 0.425 | Worse | Unexpected |
8 of the 12 teams regressed to the mean. Of the 4 results that went against the predictions I think we can justify 3 of them:
- Russ had CarGo and was a buyer so he got better
- Greg didn't start a UTIL for over a month (and sold) so he got worse
- Eric sold at the end of July and has gotten rocked the last few weeks because of it
And Dan just seems to be an unlucky SOB.
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Week 18 Preview & Predictions
Just 5 weeks to go!
Russ vs. Greg Russ is using this as a 'healing' week to pray to the God of fantasy that Fernandez, freeman, Holliday, Smyly, and Kipnis heal quicker. Still, less than 7 wins here would be a massive disappointment. Russ 8-1
Richie vs. Pflanz Despite the loss, Pflanz still has one of the best teams right now. Richie is will be lucky to get 4 wins here. Pflanz 7-3
Perk vs. Eric Just what the doctor ordered for Eddie, a nice easy week to grab a win and countdown the days until Cabrera's return. Perk 7-3
Dan vs. Brad One of many chances Dan will have to beat up on a seller, and fight his way into the playoffs. Dan 8-2
John vs. Jeremy Jeremy gets a chance to prove he belongs, John gets a chance to show him the door. John 6-3
Andy vs. Mark Two teams in need of a spark, Andy is at risk of losing the #1 seed, Mark is at risk of losing his spot in the playoffs. Tie 5-5
Russ vs. Greg Russ is using this as a 'healing' week to pray to the God of fantasy that Fernandez, freeman, Holliday, Smyly, and Kipnis heal quicker. Still, less than 7 wins here would be a massive disappointment. Russ 8-1
Richie vs. Pflanz Despite the loss, Pflanz still has one of the best teams right now. Richie is will be lucky to get 4 wins here. Pflanz 7-3
Perk vs. Eric Just what the doctor ordered for Eddie, a nice easy week to grab a win and countdown the days until Cabrera's return. Perk 7-3
Dan vs. Brad One of many chances Dan will have to beat up on a seller, and fight his way into the playoffs. Dan 8-2
John vs. Jeremy Jeremy gets a chance to prove he belongs, John gets a chance to show him the door. John 6-3
Andy vs. Mark Two teams in need of a spark, Andy is at risk of losing the #1 seed, Mark is at risk of losing his spot in the playoffs. Tie 5-5
Week 17 Recap
Ok, that last one was confusing, now we're back in real time. Here's what went down last week:
Richie 7 - Eric 3
Buyer vs. Seller, and we got the expected results. I'm sure Richie was hoping for something better, but he'll take 7-3 after a tough loss last week. On the batting end, he won 4 of 5 categories and saw good weeks from Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez. On the mound, he somehow collected 8 quality starts with an ERA of 5.43, thanks I guess to Lackey and the rest of the guys who helped out. Sale got knocked around for the second week in a row, but Strasburg held his own and Lester threw another good outing. Also it was hilarious to see Lance McCullers 162.00 ERA after lasting a third of an inning in Texas. Probably not going to waste a lot of time on the seller lineups unless there's a particularly impressive individual week, not the case this week for Eric. This win is meaningful for Richie, but it's still not enough to get him into the playoff picture. He's still 3.5 back of 6th place Mark.
Russ 7 - Pflanz 3
In a battle between the league's two hottest teams, Russ came out on top and edged closetr to the #1 bye week. Commish came into this one after three consecutive weeks of winning 8-2, a 24-6 record over the last 3 weeks. Pflanz was 26-10 over his last 4, and was coming off an 8-0 shutout. Russ' offense was overpowering while Pflanz's was underwhelming, and that's what really made the difference in this one. Longoria, Crawford, CarGo and Granderson all had multi homer efforts, and Pflanz got very little out of his studs. The real battle was on the mound in this one, as every ratio was ridiculously close. Russ' ERA of 2.25 ranked first in the league, Pflanz's 2.28 ranked second, Russ' whip of 0.88 ranked first in the league, Pflanz's 0.95 ranked second, and both K/9 were in the top 5, with Pflanz narrowly edging Russ out. Price, DeGrom, and Bumgarner led Pflanz on the mound, while Russ was carried by Harvey and his closers (Holland, Uehara, and new closer Ken Giles had a combined 8 NSV). Those crazy numbers give Russ his second straight 'Pitching of the Week' award. A lot has been discussed about the crazy amount of injuries to Russ' team, but in true next man up fashion, Giles is thriving in his new closer role just as Uehara gets shut down. This battle was one of the best of the year, and could definitely be a playoff preview.
Dan 7 - Perka 2
A lost phone on trade deadline day could be directly responsible for the decline of Perka's team. He's 13-25 in the last four weeks, with his only win coming last week against 11th place Brad. After spending essentially the entire season in a bye week spot, this team is falling FAST. Another powerful week from Nelson Cruz (7-4-4-.552-1) was wasted as Dan stole 4 offensive categories thanks to Chris Davis and rookie Kyle Schwarber. As for Pitching, Perk got decent stuff from Verlander, and great stuff from Carrasco and Chapman, but the sample was small, and the rest of his below average pitching washed it away. Dan had help all over from a plethora of randoms on the pitching staff, but this team belongs to one man: Jake Arrieta. With a 14.2-0.00-0.75-6.75-2-0 line, he locked up this win for Dan, and it now puts him 4 games back of 6th place. For Perka, he's still in third, but clearly trending the wrong way.
Andy 7 - Brad 3
Another Buyer vs. Seller matchup, another expected result. Andy really needed this matchup to get back on track and retain the #1 seed. As the only the buyer to not make a move at the deadline, there's added pressure on this team. This win was actually a pretty ugly one for Andy, especially on the pitching side. Greinke and Liriano ran into serious problems this week, but Andy still took 4 of 5 offensive categories just because Brad's ratios were so bad. Andy's pitching line was 5.32-1.36-10.64-1-2. That line went 4-1 in pitching, and he was 2 more QS away from sweeping. Jose Baustista (7--3-7-.323-1 played excellent and Josh Donaldson (9-5-8-.484-1) was the player of the week, and helped Andy to some strong offensive numbers. The win kept Andy in first, but the ,margin of victory and quality of opponent definitely raises some eyebrows, in a bad way.
Jeremy 7 - Greg 3
Scanlon takes this one and gets back on track. A very average offensive week was enough to take 3 of 5 categories, although he had no shot of catching Greg's 10 NSB, and Jeremy was able to sweep the pitching categories thanks to weird 1 game rental David Price. Even with the win, Jeremy is a long shot for the playoffs and running out of time.
John 6 - Mark 3
Special announcement: John has not lost in 7 weeks. The offense that exploded for him last week went quiet again this week, with only Carpenter staying hot at the plate, but pitching won him this matchup. Wacha pitched excellent, and although Kershaw and Kulber weren't lights out, they did enough for him to win all but NSV. For Mark, The offense was decent, with Abreu staying hot and new addition David Ortiz carrying his weight (lol), but as has been customary this season, his starters could not stay consistent, and he taked this tough loss. For John, the win helps him leapfrog Mark in the standings, and puts Mark on the cusp of elimination.
Power Rankings
1. Russ (1) - He's 31-9 in the last 4 weeks, but injuries have put a damper on the winning streak
2. Andy (2) - Beats a lesser opponent here, but 4 of his final 5 opponents are contenders
3. John (5) - The champ is back to defend his title, no losses in last 7 weeks
4. Pflanz (3) - Tough loss to #1 on this list, but has a nice looking schedule to finish the season
5. Dan (7) - great win and plays all 3 sellers in the final 5 weeks
6. Perk (4) - Still fading fast, but will play Greg and Eric in 2 of the next 3 weeks
7. Richie (8) - 25-12 in the last 4 weeks, definitely in the hunt
8. Mark (6) - Only wins in the last 7 weeks are against the 3 last place teams
9. Scanlon (9) - Can't really expect a jump when you beat 12th place, very tough schedule to end the year includes Andy, John, Russ, and no pushovers
10. Eric (10) - Time to play spoiler
11. Brad (11) - Time to play spoiler
12. Greg (12) - Time to play spoiler
Richie 7 - Eric 3
Buyer vs. Seller, and we got the expected results. I'm sure Richie was hoping for something better, but he'll take 7-3 after a tough loss last week. On the batting end, he won 4 of 5 categories and saw good weeks from Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez. On the mound, he somehow collected 8 quality starts with an ERA of 5.43, thanks I guess to Lackey and the rest of the guys who helped out. Sale got knocked around for the second week in a row, but Strasburg held his own and Lester threw another good outing. Also it was hilarious to see Lance McCullers 162.00 ERA after lasting a third of an inning in Texas. Probably not going to waste a lot of time on the seller lineups unless there's a particularly impressive individual week, not the case this week for Eric. This win is meaningful for Richie, but it's still not enough to get him into the playoff picture. He's still 3.5 back of 6th place Mark.
Russ 7 - Pflanz 3
In a battle between the league's two hottest teams, Russ came out on top and edged closetr to the #1 bye week. Commish came into this one after three consecutive weeks of winning 8-2, a 24-6 record over the last 3 weeks. Pflanz was 26-10 over his last 4, and was coming off an 8-0 shutout. Russ' offense was overpowering while Pflanz's was underwhelming, and that's what really made the difference in this one. Longoria, Crawford, CarGo and Granderson all had multi homer efforts, and Pflanz got very little out of his studs. The real battle was on the mound in this one, as every ratio was ridiculously close. Russ' ERA of 2.25 ranked first in the league, Pflanz's 2.28 ranked second, Russ' whip of 0.88 ranked first in the league, Pflanz's 0.95 ranked second, and both K/9 were in the top 5, with Pflanz narrowly edging Russ out. Price, DeGrom, and Bumgarner led Pflanz on the mound, while Russ was carried by Harvey and his closers (Holland, Uehara, and new closer Ken Giles had a combined 8 NSV). Those crazy numbers give Russ his second straight 'Pitching of the Week' award. A lot has been discussed about the crazy amount of injuries to Russ' team, but in true next man up fashion, Giles is thriving in his new closer role just as Uehara gets shut down. This battle was one of the best of the year, and could definitely be a playoff preview.
Dan 7 - Perka 2
A lost phone on trade deadline day could be directly responsible for the decline of Perka's team. He's 13-25 in the last four weeks, with his only win coming last week against 11th place Brad. After spending essentially the entire season in a bye week spot, this team is falling FAST. Another powerful week from Nelson Cruz (7-4-4-.552-1) was wasted as Dan stole 4 offensive categories thanks to Chris Davis and rookie Kyle Schwarber. As for Pitching, Perk got decent stuff from Verlander, and great stuff from Carrasco and Chapman, but the sample was small, and the rest of his below average pitching washed it away. Dan had help all over from a plethora of randoms on the pitching staff, but this team belongs to one man: Jake Arrieta. With a 14.2-0.00-0.75-6.75-2-0 line, he locked up this win for Dan, and it now puts him 4 games back of 6th place. For Perka, he's still in third, but clearly trending the wrong way.
Andy 7 - Brad 3
Another Buyer vs. Seller matchup, another expected result. Andy really needed this matchup to get back on track and retain the #1 seed. As the only the buyer to not make a move at the deadline, there's added pressure on this team. This win was actually a pretty ugly one for Andy, especially on the pitching side. Greinke and Liriano ran into serious problems this week, but Andy still took 4 of 5 offensive categories just because Brad's ratios were so bad. Andy's pitching line was 5.32-1.36-10.64-1-2. That line went 4-1 in pitching, and he was 2 more QS away from sweeping. Jose Baustista (7--3-7-.323-1 played excellent and Josh Donaldson (9-5-8-.484-1) was the player of the week, and helped Andy to some strong offensive numbers. The win kept Andy in first, but the ,margin of victory and quality of opponent definitely raises some eyebrows, in a bad way.
Jeremy 7 - Greg 3
Scanlon takes this one and gets back on track. A very average offensive week was enough to take 3 of 5 categories, although he had no shot of catching Greg's 10 NSB, and Jeremy was able to sweep the pitching categories thanks to weird 1 game rental David Price. Even with the win, Jeremy is a long shot for the playoffs and running out of time.
John 6 - Mark 3
Special announcement: John has not lost in 7 weeks. The offense that exploded for him last week went quiet again this week, with only Carpenter staying hot at the plate, but pitching won him this matchup. Wacha pitched excellent, and although Kershaw and Kulber weren't lights out, they did enough for him to win all but NSV. For Mark, The offense was decent, with Abreu staying hot and new addition David Ortiz carrying his weight (lol), but as has been customary this season, his starters could not stay consistent, and he taked this tough loss. For John, the win helps him leapfrog Mark in the standings, and puts Mark on the cusp of elimination.
Power Rankings
1. Russ (1) - He's 31-9 in the last 4 weeks, but injuries have put a damper on the winning streak
2. Andy (2) - Beats a lesser opponent here, but 4 of his final 5 opponents are contenders
3. John (5) - The champ is back to defend his title, no losses in last 7 weeks
4. Pflanz (3) - Tough loss to #1 on this list, but has a nice looking schedule to finish the season
5. Dan (7) - great win and plays all 3 sellers in the final 5 weeks
6. Perk (4) - Still fading fast, but will play Greg and Eric in 2 of the next 3 weeks
7. Richie (8) - 25-12 in the last 4 weeks, definitely in the hunt
8. Mark (6) - Only wins in the last 7 weeks are against the 3 last place teams
9. Scanlon (9) - Can't really expect a jump when you beat 12th place, very tough schedule to end the year includes Andy, John, Russ, and no pushovers
10. Eric (10) - Time to play spoiler
11. Brad (11) - Time to play spoiler
12. Greg (12) - Time to play spoiler
Week 16 Recap (Late)
Apologies for no week 16 recap, was traveling all week with limited access to wifi and unlimited access to beer and food. I’ll run down a brief week 16 recap first, then we’ll look at week 17. And yes, there’s still a trade deadline recap in the works, hopefully later this week.
Week 16 mini-Recap
Dan 5 - Richie 4
Strong offense helped Dan to win this matchup by a small margin. Chris Davis (5-4-12-.393-(-1)) was the offensive player of the week, and made a huge difference here. Richie got great pitching from trade deadline prize John Lester, but Chris Sale had his worst week of the year, and only won 3 of the pitching categories. Big matchup between two teams fighting for a playoff spot, but neither got to do much moving in the standings.
Russ 8 - Eric 2
This matchup looked dicey early in the week but the buyer ended up trouncing the seller in the week after the deadline, which was to be expected. Russ’ pitching staff looked* dominant, with a team line of 1.81-1.09-9.06-5-5, good enough for the ‘Pitching of the Week’ award. Fernandez (sniff), Harvey, and Salazar were all brilliant, and Cueto was able to pitch well against his former manager. The offense was there too, as Russ was top 5 in the league in every category except NSB, thanks again to another spectacular week from CarGo (6-3-6-.483-0). Eric was busy filling his roster with spare parts off the waiver wire, as the climax of his season is over at this point.
Perka 7 - Brad 2
Big win for Perka, . But looking closer, it really wasn’t an impressive victory. He won three offensive categories with mediocre numbers (at best), and took 4 pitching categories, including winning with a 4.74 ERA and just 2 NSV. Nelson Cruz had a nice week posting 4-4-5-.406-0, but the rest of the offense was cold. It was his first win in 3 weeks but quality of opponent has to be acknowledged.
Pflanz 8 - Jeremy 0
We finally got our first shutout of 2015. In this league, shutouts are basically equivalent to no-hitters, with the 10-0 shutout serving as the ‘perfect game. This 8-0 shutout came much later than usual in the season, although we do usually see more of them in the months of August and september (with buyers and sellers having been established). It’s Pflanz’s 2nd career shutout, and first since 201. He was able to take 4 offensive categories thanks to strong performances from Machado (7-2-4-.313-1) and Cespedes (6-3-6-.400-0), and despite an average looking pitching line, he won 4 categories on that side as well, thanks to good stuff from Archer and bumgarner. Pflanz continues on his Scanlon continues to confuse the league as to why he decided to buy.
Mark 8 - Greg 2
No big surprises here. Mark continues to do well against lesser opponents, and definitely needed this big victory. It was an average offensive week for Mark, with the exception of his 6 NSB, which has become the norm for this team (Billy Hamilton contributed 5 of those 6). But even an average performance was enough to sweep, Mark’s Jose Abreu had one of the best performances of the week posting a 7-3-10-.500-0 line. Greg Sported team pitching ratios of 6.70-1.55-6.52, not tough to beat. Mark, despite a pretty ugly week on the mound, grabbed three of the 5 categories, and got a much needed win over the basement team.
John 8 - Andy 2
Huge statement win for Johnny, who is trying to establish himself as a contender. Tough loss for our oddly complacent leader in winning %. No moves were made bny Andy at the deadline.John was able to win with some overpowering offense, an ‘Offense of the Week’ award winning line of 29-17-37-.351-0 and a dirty pitching line of 1.61-0.91-8.40-5-2. Mark Teixeira(7-5-9-.500-0), Ben Zobrist (4-3-6-.375-(-1)), Matt Carpenter (5-3-5-.433-0), and Carlos Correa (4-4-5-.423-0) led this record-setting homerun barrage while Kershaw, Kluber, and Wacha continued to be one of the scariest 3 headed monsters in The Franchise. Andy didn’t put up bad numbers, Rizzo hit for 6-4-10--.393-0, but it wasn’t enough.Big win for John, big loss for Andy.
Week 16 power rankings (put yourself in last Monday's mindset)
1. Russ - Did't beat any great competition, but he moved up while those around him moved down
2. Andy - Big loss to the champ closed the gap between 1st and second
3. Pflanz - Continues to stay dominant, adding a shutout to the recent hot streak
4. Eddie - Finally got the win he needed
5. John - HUGE win over the first place team
6. Mark - A win is a win, even over a last place opponent
7. Dan - He's not out of this race yet
8. Richie - A tough loss leaves him behind the recent movers and shakers
9. Jeremy - Almost ranked below a seller
10. Eric - Football season's pretty much here!
11. Brad - see above!
12. Greg - Finally woke up and made some deals at the deadline, good to see
Monday, July 27, 2015
Week 15 Recap
Well, the all-star break is behind us, and so is our extra
long week 14. Keep in mind, these matchups had 3 extra days of stats, so when
you double take reading some of these statlines, I’ll know you didn’t read this
intro part.
Buyers and Sellers
The hot stove is heating up! We’ve already seen some
blockbuster deals and I have a feeling we’ll see a few more before this week is
done. Here’s what we know about who’s buying and who’s selling so far.
Buyers:
Andy – His groupme is muted, but he usually surfaces just before
the deadline to make a few deals.
Russ – Picked up Holland and Crawford a month ago, now adds
Cueto, he might be done at this point.
Eddie – No moves yet but this was his ‘all-in’ year after
tanking last season, expect some wheeling and dealing soon.
Pflanz – Has been in trade talks, he will make a splash soon
too, I think.
Mark – Just picked up King Felix and Ortiz, although had to
give up a good amount to get them, and got a higher draft pick out of it. Slightly
more of a ‘buyer’ move than a lateral move though.
John – Already added Kershaw, Always buying.
Richie – Very confident, very aggressive, grabbed Adrian
Gonzalez from Brad.
???
Dan – Only recently pushed himself towards the buyers group
after giving up picks for Posey and Upton, but left himself enough room to flip
sides if he has to.
Scanlon – Never sure what he’s doing. I guess it seems like
he’s buying? He just likes trades.
Sellers:
Brad – Shipped off Kershaw, Holland, and Adrian Gonzalez,
would probably deal more but this carcass has pretty much been picked clean.
Eric – Has already collected 2 first rounders, to go along
with his own, and still has assets to shop.
Greg – Has put up the white flag, listening to offers on all
but Harper.
The bottom line is, it’s a good year to be a seller, and I
don’t know why more teams didn’t embrace it. Brad made his decision early, and
probably traded a lot of his players too early when he could have waited to get
a bidding war. Greg’s decision has been made for him, as he’s pretty far out of
it. And Eric, in my opinion, made a really smart play by throwing in the towel
this year and collecting draft picks for next year. He’s zigging while everyone
else is zagging. Last year, Pflanz, Perk, Russ and Greg were big sellers, and
the market was pretty clogged, leading to a lot of last minute deals. This
year, a lot of the biggest available trade chips have already been moved, and
we’re still 6 days from the actual deadline. I’m still waiting for a lot of
buyers to make moves, should be a great 6 days.
Week 14 Recap:
Russ 8 – Dan 2
Russ was able to hang on, despite a great Sunday night start
from Eduardo Rodriguez, to beat Dan by a large margin. With solid offensive
numbers, including a .380 OBP (second in the league for the week) and 6 net
steals (tied for first), Russ took 4 of 5 offensive categories to go along with
4 of 5 pitching categories. The Commish brilliantly motivated team captain
Carlos Gonzalez by dangling him on the trade market. CarGo responded with a "Franchise Player of the Week" 9-5-12-.452-0 line. For the record, he ain't going anywhere. Pedestrian
numbers were enough to help Russ win 4 of 5 pitching categories, though I will
point out Craig Kimbrel had a 0.00-0.17-10.50-0-6 line in 6 innings. It’s the second straight 8-2 victory for Russ,
as he has moved into second place in the standings. News came out this morning
that Russ is dealing away a first round pick for certified ace Johnny Cueto.
The only weak pitching category he had was quality starts, and adding a 5th
starter to the mix should help. Will he make more moves? Stay tuned.
This loss knocks Dan back to 8th place, but still
just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. Dan is just 4-15 over his last 2
matchups, but made some moves on Sunday to show the league he’s probably a
buyer. Chris Davis was his most effective offensive piece in this matchup,
hitting 3 homers and collecting 8 RBI’s (which proved big as Dan won RBI’s by
3). Unfortunately Cole Hamels’ no-hitter didn’t translate into many category
wins for him, although his team did lead the league with 9 QS this week. All 6
of Dan’s starters were solid, but he still barely missed out on all 3 ratios
categories. Dan recently closed on a deal that would send Ellsbury, McCann, a
first round, and a sixth round draft pick to Eric for Buster Posey and Justin
Upton (the #2 and #3 picks of the draft this year), so it’s clear he’s focusing
on improving his lineup. It’s a message to the league that despite two tough
losses, it’s an odd year and he’s going to try to make the playoffs, so watch
out.
Richie 7 – Brad 2
Midway through this one, Brad’s best offensive player moved
from his dugout to the opposition’s. Adrian Gonzalez put up better numbers for
Brad than for Richie in this matchup, with a 5-3-5-.516-0 line, but it wasn’t
enough as Richie took over the offensive categories by a 4-0-1 score. Both
offenses looked rough in this one, though. Richie’s 42 runs ranked 4th
in the league, but homers, RBI, and OBP all ranked in the bottom third of the
league…yet he still went 3-0 in those categories…now if only someone could put
together some charts and numbers that show when people get away with lucky wins…
Richie also enjoyed a breakout week for Ian Desmond, a player associated with
being one of the worst trade prizes this season. Desmond tossed up an
8-4-7-.405-0 line to lead Richie on offense.
On the pitching side, Richie was able to take three of the
five categories and came close to winning the other two. Richie’s Gerrit Cole
was the most effective pitcher on either side, posting a 1.80-.80-8.40-2-0 line
over 15 innings. But overall, the pitching, like the offense in this matchup,
was underwhelming. Richie won WHIP with the 7th best mark in the
league, and did the same with QS. He did have 9 saves, tops in the league…but
he could have won the category with 0 (Brad posted a -1). So as Brad continues
to track towards the basement, Richie gets a big win, his second straight 7-2
victory, and it moves him into 7th place. He’s now just 2.5 games
out of a playoff spot, he’s certainly not done making deals, and he’s got some
talent coming off the DL soon. I don’t know if I’m ready to call him a
contender, but he’s making a pretty good case.
Andy 6 – Eddie 2
This was one of the rare times in season we got the #1 and
#2 teams matched up against each other. On the offensive side, Perk had a
bounce back week, ranking 2nd in Runs, 3rd in homers, and
3rd in steals. The loss of Miggy is still hurting him, but offense
is why he’s been so great this year, so it was good to see some of the
production come back, this time in the form of Todd Frazier (7-2-10-.279-2) and
Kyle Seager (11-3-4-.375). Unfortunately, that’s where the good news stops for
Perk. He only won 2 out of 5 offensive categories, and he got swept in
pitching. Perk’s starting pitching has seen better days, and the Carrasco, Jimemez,
Verlander attack might not get it
done down the stretch.
Andy’s pitching wasn’t the spectacular machine we have gotten
used to, but still, it was enough to sweep against the #2 team. Liriano (1.50-1.00-16.50-1-0
in 6 innings) and Greinke (1.20-0.73-8.40-2-0 in 15 innings), quite possibly
the league’s best 1-2 punch, was electric once again, but the
back of the rotation faltered, and pushed Andy’s ratios up. He still finished
in the top 6 in ERA, K/9, NSV, and tied for second in the league with 9 QS, so
yeah….that’s somehow a bad week for Andy.
Offensively, Musto continued to churn out
homeruns, belting 13 on the week and getting great lines out of Bautista
(6-4-6-.275-0), Jay Bruce (5-3-11-.341-(-1)), and Josh Donaldson
(5-3-8-.350-0).
So in 2 matchups without Cabrera, Perk is 4-13. But the real
problem seems to be on the other side of the ball; he’s 3-10 in pitching categories
in the last 3 matchups. This team does not look as rock solid as it did a month
ago, he’s dropped to third place and Pflanz is just 4.5 behind him in 4th,
look for Perk to make some moves soon.
Andy on the other hand is in first and his lead is growing.
He has 8 games over second place Russ and his lineup is firing on all cylinders
offensively and defensively. He’s 45-20 since his last loss in week 8. If he wakes
up and jumps on the horn to make some trades, he could really turn this team
into a juggernaut.
Jeremy 8 – Eric 2
This was the straw that broke the camel’s back. After a
great rookie playoff run in his first Franchise season, Eric is now cleaning
house and re-positioning for the 2016 campaign.
I can’t say I blame him, he’s 1-7-1 in the last 9 weeks with the 1 win coming
against Greg. This team has (or, had) a lot of talent, but just couldn’t get it
done. Having said that, Eric’s offense was actually pretty good this week; 3rd
in RBI, 1st in OBP (.396 wow!), and top 6 in the other 4 categories.
Good enough to win a couple of offensive categories. The pitching however,
lacked any sort of punch besides Shelby Miller (1.35-.90-8.10-2-0) and Cueto
(1.50-1.25-5.25-1-0). The loss moves Eric back to ninth, and I expect things to
plummet from there.
Scanlon, still behind Eric in the standings even AFTER
beating him 8-2, still has his foot on the gas, cruising toward the playoffs
despite the more than likely odds that he won’t be able to find a parking spot.
He put up some nice offensive numbers this week, ranking in the top 3 in
homers, runs and RBI’s thanks to Pujols (7-3-6-.317-1), Hunter Pence
(5-2-8-.425-0) and especially from the now departed David Ortiz (6-4-11.378),
who’s Sunday night numbers pushed homers and RBI’s in favor of Scanlon. A
bigger story was on the pitching end, where Scanlon swept all 5 categories from
the struggling Eric. Jeremy’s team pitching line (2.40-109-8.20-7-9) was one of
the best in the whole league this week. A holy trinity of fabulous statlines
from Colin McHugh (2.08-1.46-5.54-2-0), Andrew Miller (1.80-.40-12.60-0-5) and
the now departed Felix Hernandez (1.38-1.15-8.31-2-0), led the way in the
sweep. I should mention that Jeremy has since traded two of the
biggest impact players in the win, plus a higher draft pick, for a different
number 2 (Price), and another closer (Jansen).
Peculiar. But still, 10th place and CLIMBING! Scanlon is
15-4 in the last 2 matchups and had a very good week. He will also make more
trades, this is a fact.
Pflanz 7 – Mark 2
For the second week in a row, Pflanz is the victor in a
heavyweight offensive battle. Last week he combined with John for 25 homers and
70 RBI’s, this week (in extended time of course), he and Mark combined for 30
homers and 93 RBI’s! After taking home the “Offense of the Week Award” last
week, I think I’ve got to give it to Pflanz again. He finished with a team
statline of 54-15-43-.374-4, or, by ranking: 1st-1st-3rd-4th-5th.
Pretty damn good for the second week in a row. Joey Votto was his most valuable player,
with a 11-3-6-.638-0 line (.638 in an extended week WTF?!?!), but Dozier
(5-2-5-.371-0), Machado (4-2-3-.410-0), and Cain (5-3-4-.318-1) were all great complements.
Coincidentally, Mark also had a stellar offensive week, and played Pflanz to a
2-2-1 tie in the offensive categories. (This was the only reason I didn’t want
him to get the offense of the week. But no one else can beat his numbers so…congrats
Pflanz). Mark had Robinson Cano finally wake up to post a 10-4-11-.409-0, and
A-Rod kept on carrying with 7-5-7-.303-0, Melky Cabrera also deserves mention
for his 7-2-10-.390. This was a great offensive stalemate from two teams in
similar positions.
So Mark had a great offensive week and matched Pflanz’s
award-worthy offensive week. But even one of Mark’s best pitching performances
of the season wasn’t enough to grab a win from Pflanz on the pitching side. Pitching
is where Pflanz grabbed the hammer and drove Mark into the ground. In the third
pitching sweep of the week, Pflanz had the most impressive line of
anyone in the league. Leading me to bestow upon him, the coveted, “Pitching of
the Week Award”. Yes that’s right, Pflanz is getting both awards. He had a hell
of a week. His pitching line (1.93-1.04-10.33-6-3) featured the league’s best
ERA, WHIP, and k/9, while still ranking 5th in QS and 7th
in NSV. Chris Archer (2.08-1.00-10.38-2), Jacob deGrom (1.32-0.51-10.54-2-0),
Madison Bumgarner (1.50-1.00-7.50-1-0), and James Shields (0.90-1.70-11.70-0-0)
made up a elite rotation. Besides A.J. Ramos, who threw all of 2.0 innings,
every pitcher had an ERA under 2.70.
As I said, Mark’s week was excellent as well, he ranked in
the top 3 of every ratio category after a great last week from long time player
Davis Price (1.80-0.87-11.40-2-0). But Jeurys Familia’s +5 NSV last week caught
up to him in the form of a -2 this week, and Jordan Zimmerman had another tough
week. For Mark, the loss knocks him back to 5th, as he continues to
struggle with anything but bad teams.
For Pflanz, the second great week in a row moves him up to
4th place, just 4.5 games behind a sliding Perka. I expect Pflanz to
make a few moves to solidify what is already a surging lineup and pitching
staff. This is the hottest team in the league.
John 5 – Greg 5
Well this will kill the champ’s momentum. A 5-5 tie to a
team that STILL hasn’t plugged in a utility player. What the fuck Greg!!! Greg
had just 3 homers this week (John thankfully beat him there), and was also
able to put together a very good OBP of .375. Bryce Harper (5-1-3-.429-0) continues
to have a great season and Greg has rightfully expressed that he’s the only
untouchable on the team. John had a nice week from Teixeira (6-2-3-.486-1) and another
‘Holy Shit!’ week from Mike Trout (7-5-9-.410-1), but he still only took 3/5
offensive categories.
Greg, despite not winning a week since week 6, managed to
steal 3 of the pitching categories to force a draw in this one against the
defending champ.. Good weeks from Lester (1.26-0.70-8.16-2-0), Cashner
(1.29-0.86-6.43-1-0), and Volquez (1.96-1.07-7.07-2-0) should serve as good
showcase lines for the right buyer at the upcoming trade deadline (HELLO EDDIE,
ARE YOU OUT THERE?).
John had his first ‘I’m so happy I got Kershaw!’ week (0.00-0.35-13.24-2-0)
and 2/3rds of his closer trio was pretty solid, but his other starters pretty
much blew up, and this will be a tough outcome to swallow as we approach playoff
crunch time.
This is the first non-loss for Greg since back to back draws
in weeks 8 and 9. He remains in last, and I suspect we will see players start
flying off his roster very soon. John will stay in 6th although he
missed out on a great chance to move up to 5th place. He’s just 1.5
games behind Mark, but now Richie is a little closer on his tail. John will
probably look to make more moves before the deadline is over.
Commish’s Power
Rankings
1. Andy (last week: 1) – He had a "King of
the Hill" match and defended the belt, he deserves to be 1.
2. Russ (3) – Just as in the real
standings, Russ moves up to #2. The addition of Cueto is icing on the cake.
3. Pflanz (6) – Has put up better numbers
than his record shows in the last couple of weeks, hottest team in The
Franchise.
4. Eddie (2) – A beatdown at the hands of
Andy, who hasn’t been there this year? This team did show some improvement
5. Richie (7) – Another week, another 7-2
victory, and I have confidence that his trade karma will come around
6. Mark (6) – Had a good week despite the
loss, still struggling with good teams, but Felix and Ortiz should help with
that.
7. John (4) – You tied Greg? Come on man.
He doesn’t even have a utility player!
8. Jeremy (10) – Call it crazy all you
want, he wants the playoffs. He’s only lost 1 of the last 6 weeks.
9. Dan (8) – Another week, another blowout
loss, how much longer will he hang on?
10. Eric (9) – Already has 3 first round
picks in the 2016 draft, that’s how you sell.
11. Brad (11) – Football is right around
the corner
12. Greg (12) - Make some deadline deals to show us you’re
still alive?
Week 16 Matchup
mini-preview
Eric vs. Russ Russ
will look to continue his quest for a bye week against a team that conveniently
just traded all it’s best players.
Richie vs. Dan
Richie will try to make Dan’s buyer/seller decision for him
Perk vs. Brad Nothing
gets you back on the winning track like a week against 11th place.
Only 3 more weeks til Miggy’s back.
Pflanz vs. Scanlon
Two teams on a tear, if Scanlon wins this, he belongs in the discussion.
Greg vs. Mark
Mark needs a win to get back on track, can Greg play spoiler again?
John vs. Andy
Andy could knock the champ out of the playoff picture, while John could use a
statement bounceback.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Luckdate
(Luck + update...get it?)
During my fantasy baseball withdrawals over the all star break I went the extra mile and extrapolated my luck idea across all categories. It's not a perfect system and I'm still finding some flaws in it but I'm still digging it. Here are the results:
First, team luck:
During my fantasy baseball withdrawals over the all star break I went the extra mile and extrapolated my luck idea across all categories. It's not a perfect system and I'm still finding some flaws in it but I'm still digging it. Here are the results:
First, team luck:
| Sorted by projected w% based on team stats | Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest | ||||||||||
| Pos | Manager | Proj W% | Act W% | Variance | Pos | Manager | Proj W% | Act W% | Variance | ||
| 1 | Andy | 0.591 | 0.618 | 0.027 | 2 | Eddie | 0.496 | 0.575 | 0.079 | ||
| 4 | Mark | 0.570 | 0.536 | -0.034 | 3 | Russ | 0.496 | 0.554 | 0.058 | ||
| 8 | Eric | 0.549 | 0.482 | -0.067 | 11 | Brad | 0.394 | 0.425 | 0.031 | ||
| T | 5 | Pflanz | 0.533 | 0.511 | -0.022 | T | 6 | John | 0.480 | 0.507 | 0.027 |
| E | 9 | Richie | 0.525 | 0.471 | -0.054 | E | 1 | Andy | 0.591 | 0.618 | 0.027 |
| A | 2 | Eddie | 0.496 | 0.575 | 0.079 | A | 7 | Dan | 0.494 | 0.496 | 0.002 |
| M | 3 | Russ | 0.496 | 0.554 | 0.058 | M | 12 | Greg | 0.403 | 0.393 | -0.010 |
| 7 | Dan | 0.494 | 0.496 | 0.002 | 5 | Pflanz | 0.533 | 0.511 | -0.022 | ||
| 6 | John | 0.480 | 0.507 | 0.027 | 4 | Mark | 0.570 | 0.536 | -0.034 | ||
| 10 | Jeremy | 0.470 | 0.432 | -0.038 | 10 | Jeremy | 0.470 | 0.432 | -0.038 | ||
| 12 | Greg | 0.403 | 0.393 | -0.010 | 9 | Richie | 0.525 | 0.471 | -0.054 | ||
| 11 | Brad | 0.394 | 0.425 | 0.031 | 8 | Eric | 0.549 | 0.482 | -0.067 | ||
Followed by offensive luck:
| Sorted by projected w% based on team stats | Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest | ||||||||||
| Pos | Manager | Proj W% | Act W% | Variance | Pos | Manager | Proj W% | Act W% | Variance | ||
| 8 | Eric | 0.625 | 0.457 | -0.168 | 1 | Andy | 0.480 | 0.607 | 0.127 | ||
| O | 5 | Pflanz | 0.600 | 0.543 | -0.057 | O | 11 | Brad | 0.414 | 0.522 | 0.107 |
| F | 4 | Mark | 0.575 | 0.557 | -0.018 | F | 2 | Eddie | 0.489 | 0.550 | 0.061 |
| F | 3 | Russ | 0.565 | 0.565 | -0.001 | F | 7 | Dan | 0.440 | 0.486 | 0.046 |
| E | 9 | Richie | 0.503 | 0.443 | -0.060 | E | 6 | John | 0.475 | 0.514 | 0.039 |
| N | 2 | Eddie | 0.489 | 0.550 | 0.061 | N | 10 | Jeremy | 0.372 | 0.379 | 0.007 |
| S | 1 | Andy | 0.480 | 0.607 | 0.127 | S | 3 | Russ | 0.565 | 0.565 | -0.001 |
| E | 6 | John | 0.475 | 0.514 | 0.039 | E | 4 | Mark | 0.575 | 0.557 | -0.018 |
| 12 | Greg | 0.462 | 0.378 | -0.083 | 5 | Pflanz | 0.600 | 0.543 | -0.057 | ||
| 7 | Dan | 0.440 | 0.486 | 0.046 | 9 | Richie | 0.503 | 0.443 | -0.060 | ||
| 11 | Brad | 0.414 | 0.522 | 0.107 | 12 | Greg | 0.462 | 0.378 | -0.083 | ||
| 10 | Jeremy | 0.372 | 0.379 | 0.007 | 8 | Eric | 0.625 | 0.457 | -0.168 | ||
Followed by defensive luck:
| Sorted by projected w% based on team stats | Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest | ||||||||||
| Pos | Manager | Proj W% | Act W% | Variance | Pos | Manager | Proj W% | Act W% | Variance | ||
| 1 | Andy | 0.702 | 0.629 | -0.073 | 3 | Russ | 0.426 | 0.543 | 0.117 | ||
| D | 10 | Jeremy | 0.568 | 0.486 | -0.082 | D | 2 | Eddie | 0.503 | 0.600 | 0.097 |
| E | 4 | Mark | 0.566 | 0.514 | -0.052 | E | 12 | Greg | 0.345 | 0.407 | 0.062 |
| F | 9 | Richie | 0.548 | 0.500 | -0.048 | F | 8 | Eric | 0.472 | 0.507 | 0.035 |
| E | 7 | Dan | 0.548 | 0.507 | -0.040 | E | 6 | John | 0.484 | 0.500 | 0.016 |
| N | 2 | Eddie | 0.503 | 0.600 | 0.097 | N | 5 | Pflanz | 0.465 | 0.479 | 0.013 |
| S | 6 | John | 0.484 | 0.500 | 0.016 | S | 7 | Dan | 0.548 | 0.507 | -0.040 |
| E | 8 | Eric | 0.472 | 0.507 | 0.035 | E | 11 | Brad | 0.373 | 0.329 | -0.044 |
| 5 | Pflanz | 0.465 | 0.479 | 0.013 | 9 | Richie | 0.548 | 0.500 | -0.048 | ||
| 3 | Russ | 0.426 | 0.543 | 0.117 | 4 | Mark | 0.566 | 0.514 | -0.052 | ||
| 11 | Brad | 0.373 | 0.329 | -0.044 | 1 | Andy | 0.702 | 0.629 | -0.073 | ||
| 12 | Greg | 0.345 | 0.407 | 0.062 | 10 | Jeremy | 0.568 | 0.486 | -0.082 | ||
And the mother load, the categorical breakdowns:
| EXPECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY | ||||||||||
| Team | R | HR | RBI | OBP | NSB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | QS | NSV |
| John | 0.585 | 0.689 | 0.543 | 0.505 | 0.055 | 0.504 | 0.501 | 0.514 | 0.491 | 0.409 |
| Greg | 0.397 | 0.392 | 0.386 | 0.523 | 0.611 | 0.307 | 0.442 | 0.380 | 0.454 | 0.143 |
| Mark | 0.498 | 0.372 | 0.420 | 0.478 | 1.104 | 0.561 | 0.501 | 0.418 | 0.362 | 0.986 |
| Jeremy | 0.483 | 0.669 | 0.428 | 0.439 | -0.161 | 0.525 | 0.510 | 0.441 | 0.601 | 0.764 |
| Andy | 0.506 | 0.501 | 0.576 | 0.517 | 0.302 | 0.692 | 0.569 | 0.487 | 0.839 | 0.920 |
| Pflanz | 0.571 | 0.620 | 0.541 | 0.502 | 0.765 | 0.495 | 0.535 | 0.589 | 0.564 | 0.143 |
| Eric | 0.465 | 0.372 | 0.554 | 0.508 | 1.228 | 0.597 | 0.552 | 0.433 | 0.436 | 0.343 |
| Richie | 0.506 | 0.481 | 0.506 | 0.502 | 0.518 | 0.495 | 0.501 | 0.540 | 0.528 | 0.676 |
| Eddie | 0.519 | 0.620 | 0.618 | 0.508 | 0.179 | 0.489 | 0.400 | 0.603 | 0.326 | 0.698 |
| Brad | 0.472 | 0.372 | 0.412 | 0.451 | 0.364 | 0.427 | 0.535 | 0.494 | 0.509 | -0.101 |
| Dan | 0.444 | 0.491 | 0.498 | 0.496 | 0.271 | 0.385 | 0.451 | 0.527 | 0.656 | 0.720 |
| Russ | 0.553 | 0.422 | 0.517 | 0.571 | 0.765 | 0.522 | 0.501 | 0.574 | 0.234 | 0.299 |
| ACTUAL WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY | ||||||||||
| Team | R | HR | RBI | OBP | NSB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | QS | NSV |
| John | 0.571 | 0.571 | 0.536 | 0.429 | 0.464 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.357 | 0.571 | 0.571 |
| Greg | 0.286 | 0.357 | 0.214 | 0.571 | 0.464 | 0.357 | 0.500 | 0.357 | 0.393 | 0.429 |
| Mark | 0.571 | 0.464 | 0.429 | 0.500 | 0.821 | 0.643 | 0.571 | 0.286 | 0.357 | 0.714 |
| Jeremy | 0.357 | 0.536 | 0.393 | 0.357 | 0.250 | 0.571 | 0.429 | 0.357 | 0.429 | 0.643 |
| Andy | 0.786 | 0.500 | 0.786 | 0.571 | 0.393 | 0.643 | 0.643 | 0.500 | 0.679 | 0.679 |
| Pflanz | 0.464 | 0.393 | 0.607 | 0.571 | 0.679 | 0.429 | 0.500 | 0.643 | 0.607 | 0.214 |
| Eric | 0.357 | 0.286 | 0.536 | 0.429 | 0.679 | 0.714 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.464 | 0.357 |
| Richie | 0.393 | 0.500 | 0.357 | 0.500 | 0.464 | 0.429 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.571 | 0.500 |
| Eddie | 0.536 | 0.750 | 0.643 | 0.500 | 0.321 | 0.571 | 0.429 | 0.857 | 0.429 | 0.714 |
| Brad | 0.714 | 0.536 | 0.536 | 0.429 | 0.393 | 0.214 | 0.357 | 0.357 | 0.536 | 0.179 |
| Dan | 0.429 | 0.679 | 0.536 | 0.357 | 0.429 | 0.357 | 0.429 | 0.571 | 0.643 | 0.536 |
| Russ | 0.536 | 0.429 | 0.429 | 0.786 | 0.643 | 0.571 | 0.643 | 0.714 | 0.321 | 0.464 |
| WINNING PERCENTAGE VARIANCE | ||||||||||
| Team | R | HR | RBI | OBP | NSB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | QS | NSV |
| John | -0.014 | -0.118 | -0.007 | -0.076 | 0.409 | -0.004 | -0.001 | -0.157 | 0.080 | 0.162 |
| Greg | -0.111 | -0.035 | -0.172 | 0.048 | -0.147 | 0.050 | 0.058 | -0.023 | -0.061 | 0.286 |
| Mark | 0.073 | 0.092 | 0.009 | 0.022 | -0.283 | 0.082 | 0.070 | -0.132 | -0.005 | -0.272 |
| Jeremy | -0.126 | -0.133 | -0.035 | -0.082 | 0.411 | 0.046 | -0.081 | -0.084 | -0.172 | -0.121 |
| Andy | 0.280 | -0.001 | 0.210 | 0.054 | 0.091 | -0.049 | 0.074 | 0.013 | -0.160 | -0.241 |
| Pflanz | -0.107 | -0.227 | 0.066 | 0.069 | -0.086 | -0.066 | -0.035 | 0.054 | 0.043 | 0.071 |
| Eric | -0.108 | -0.086 | -0.018 | -0.079 | -0.549 | 0.117 | -0.052 | 0.067 | 0.028 | 0.014 |
| Richie | -0.113 | 0.019 | -0.149 | -0.002 | -0.054 | -0.066 | -0.001 | -0.040 | 0.043 | -0.176 |
| Eddie | 0.017 | 0.130 | 0.025 | -0.008 | 0.142 | 0.082 | 0.029 | 0.254 | 0.103 | 0.016 |
| Brad | 0.242 | 0.164 | 0.124 | -0.022 | 0.029 | -0.213 | -0.178 | -0.137 | 0.027 | 0.280 |
| Dan | -0.015 | 0.188 | 0.038 | -0.139 | 0.158 | -0.028 | -0.022 | 0.044 | -0.013 | -0.184 |
| Russ | -0.017 | 0.007 | -0.088 | 0.215 | -0.122 | 0.049 | 0.142 | 0.140 | 0.087 | 0.165 |
So like I said, some of this is kind of messed up. How does Jeremy have a negative expected winning percentage in Net Stolen Bases? How does Mark have a NSB W% over 100%? The answer is, I told you it's not perfect at the beginning of this post so get off my back.
In the last grid, I highlighted the luck that fell far outside the norm. For instance, Brad is 10-4 in the runs category but he's actually scored less runs than the league average. On the flip side, Pflanz has a 5-8-1 record in the HR category even though his team has 13 more home runs than league average, nearly a HR/week.
I almost mustered enough energy to write a blurb on each team regarding their luck (or lack thereof). Almost.
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