Hey guys, I'm back for a little mid season check-in and trade recap. This deadline was different from usual, we saw only 13 deals (usually we get 20+), but some of them were massive.
I think the market did a lot of self-correcting and that played in to the trades. When the first few trades were made, they favored the sellers (as they typically do), but as the weekend progressed, it shifted to a buyer's market all the way. The prices for players on Sunday night was CHEAP. This is definitely due to the fact that there were only 6 buyers (usually we have at least 7), and some of the buyers were very quiet (Pflanz, Andy).
Those of us who were overeager (Mark and myself), may have overspent early, but were able to course correct and make some favorable deals eventually. Fun deadline.
Quick check-in on my preseason predictions:
12. Greg - Saw this coming
11. Richie - Totally outperforming my prediction, might make playoffs
10. Eric - Saw this coming
9. Brad - Still has a very outside shot, but right where I expected him.
8. Dan - Needed a lot to go right, it didn't
7. Pflanz - Right on track
6. Russ - Doing slightly better than expected
5. Mark - Right on track
4. Andy - Doing even better than my lofty expectations
3. Eddie - WOW! he's in 10th now. How did this happen?? He had so many picks!
2. John - Easy pick, nailed it
1. Scanlon - Easy pick, nailed it
Now for some trade deadline grades...
Team: IV Rings
Buyer/Seller: Buyer
What He Needed: Mark’s offense has not been good so far, in fact, it’s the worst of this year’s crop of buyers, winning just 44% of his offensive category match-ups this season. And the numbers show he actually might have overachieved in the first half. He ranks 11th in runs, 9th in homers, 8th in net steals, and dead last in OBP. Cody Bellinger is the only hitter he has who is ranked in the top 95.
His pitching is the reason he’s still in the playoff picture, winning 58% of those categories. His ratios are excellent, he’s top 3 in each, and he’s second in saves. Mark had 3 solid closers and good starters, even without centerpiece Noah Syndergaard.
He needed R, HR, NSB, OBP
What He Got: Mark broke things open with the first two trades of the deadline, first, he grabbed Aaron Nola, for basically a 3rd and a 7th. His second deal involved shipping away a first rounder for Jimmy Nelson and Felipe Rivero. Mark’s third and final deal was a true blockbuster, and a great deal for him, sending injured franchise keeper Noah Syndergaard and a 5th rounder to Eddie for Jacob DeGrom, Buster Posey, and Michael Brantley just before the trade deadline clock struck midnight.
Deadline Grade: C
He spent a lot of capital to make one of the best pitching staffs even better, but an already below average offense took a back seat. The second deal was a headscratcher. Rivero has been excellent and Nelson had been solid (I guess) for the 3 days that Greg owned him, but overall this price was WAYY too high when we saw the other types of players going for first rounders. Losing a keeper as good as Syndergaard hurts, but DeGrom is a very small step down, and came at a pretty cheap price. Basically he gave up an injured keeper, a 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th for a great new shiny pitching staff that he didn’t totally need, and a couple of underperforming but high potential hitters where he needed more solid contributions.
Team: Cutch Me if Yu Can
Buyer/Seller: Buyer
What He Needed: My team has been overachieving all season, mostly thanks to Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Kluber. I was 10th in homers and OBP, and 8th in RBI. Really bad offensive numbers. Of course, Billy Hamilton has kept me at #1 in steals, and somehow I’m still winning 52% of offensive categories.
On the pitching side, I was also overacheiving, ranking 8th in ERA, 10th in whip, and 10th in QS, saves only by my #1 rank in K/9 (kluber +Chapman) and 5th rank in saves. So needed some better starters to get those QS and hopefully lower those ratios!
He needed HR, RBI, OBP, QS, ERA, WHIP
What He Got: A very active trade deadline for the Commish saw 4 deals made, most of any buyer. I started by getting Yu Darvish and Salvador Perez for a 1st and a 5th rounder. At this point I’m feeling like I may have overpaid a little bit. Full disclosure, I was going really hard after DeGrom at this point, but Eddie was weighing options and I was getting impatient. I was banking on the fact that Yu would be traded to an NL team and get a fresh start, because he has the talent to dominate. Perez was a great throw in considering the lack of catcher talent out there. So I gave up a lot but felt like I was getting QS, ratios, and offense out of it so it fulfilled a need. I still needed offensive upgrades so the next deal was an easy one, the GM rapport between my org and Brad’s really couldn’t be better. Seems like we usually make a deal every season, so when Brad had told me he wasn’t getting any bites on Upton, so I made him a juicy 3rd rounder offer and bolstered my power numbers for the rest of the season. At this point I still wanted one more starting pitcher, and maybe another bat in order to actually contend, but thought the price on Alex Wood was a little bit too high, and I had just been outbid for another solid bat in Rendon, so I went back to Perk and started working on Cutch. In the meantime I was able to flip a mid round pick to Brad for Sonny Gray (another player for whom I was banking on a change of scenery at the deadline being the trick for a return to Cy Young form). Finally, after quite the negotiation from both sides, I was able to flip my 2nd and 6th round pick (with an 8th round pick swap) for Cutch. He hit 3 homers that day. That’s all the validation I needed.
Deadline Grade: A-
I really think I covered my needs. Got more power and OBP with Cutch, Upton, and Perez. I secured 5 outfielders so Billy Hamilton doesn’t NEED to be an everyday starter (he kills my OBP). I locked down 2 big arms with high potential, and I grabbed the Tigers new closer off FA, who’s already banked 3 saves in 3 days. I love my team going into the playoffs.
Team: The SevenYear Yelich
Buyer/Seller: Seller
What He Needed: Draft Picks
What He Got: Brad made 4 deals, more than any seller, and came away with a pretty good haul. A third rounder for Upton, a 3rd and an 8th for Jake Lamb, a 9th for Sonny Gray, and a 3rd and a 10th for Marwin Gonzalez. Brad will have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds of next year’s draft to go along with Scherzer, Murphy, Yelich and….hmmm maybe he should have held onto one of those guys….
Deadline Grade: B-
It’s tough to be a seller and not get any additional picks in the first 2 rounds, but he’s got 4 picks in the third, so didn’t come away with nothing. I’m curious to like they would have been pretty perfect...
Team: BeefWellington
Buyer/Seller: Seller
What He Needed: Draft Picks
What He Got: A first rounder for Darvish and Perez, AND a first rounder for a closer he picked up in May and a starter he picked up 3 days before the deadline. THAT is how you sell.
Deadline Grade: A
I loved Greg’s deadline. He made just 2 trades, both for 1st rounders, and still has Harper, Strasburg, and a few others in keeper consideration. I think he got the better of both deals with Mark and Russ. I would say that he left too much talent on his team, and should have tried to unload more for picks, but by the end of the deadline it really seemed like a buyer’s market and the supply was beating the demand, so I can’t knock him at all.
Team: Lindor Extra Dark
Buyer/Seller: Buyer
What He Needed: The best team in the league by a good margin, Jeremy could have stayed put and still been in great shape to win the title (a la Perk in 2015). Winning 63% of offensive categories and 63% of pitching categories, he had no glaring needs.Jeremy’s offense has been excellent, top 5 in everything. His pitching has been excellent, top 5 in everything.
No specific needs, just pile-on.
What He Got: I never actually expected him to stand pat and not make deals, that’s just not in his nature. Scanlon ended up securing 3 big pieces for his championship run. First he plucked Osuna from Perk for a 2nd rounder, to keep his stranglehold on the saves category. Then he flipped a first rounder for Alex Wood, another great arm to add to his rotation. Finally, he sent his 3rd and 8th rounder for a bat, Brad’s Jake Lamb.
Deadline Grade: B-
He didn’t need to have a good deadline to win a title, but he still did. The league usually becomes a massive arms race, and if you’re not sporting all-stars at every position you might fall behind. His biggest threat to the title (John) made his team better, and Jeremy responded well. He probably overpaid for all 3 guys, but he could afford to, he didn’t have to sacrifice much because his team was already good enough.
Team: The Young Guns?
Buyer/Seller: Buyer
What He Needed: John is currently in second place. He ranks in the top 3 of EVERY offensive category, and has won 60% of offensive matchups. Same situation as Jeremy, there’s no glaring needs here.
His pitching is not quite as strong, but he is still winning 52% of categories. He’s top 3 in ERA, QS, and saves, but 7th in whip, and 8th in k/9.
He needed WHIP, K/9
What He Got: First he made a blockbuster first round deal for Anthony Rendon. Then he made a super mega crazy blockbuster the likes of which this league has never seen. What a fucking trade. 13 players, no draft picks, 2 of the top names in baseball. John sent away the injured Carlos Correa and injured Clayton Kershaw (the player he worked so damn hard to get once upon a time) to Richie (who has been working hard to get him for almost as long) in exchange for reigning MVP Kris Bryant. HUGE deal. Rich Hill, Trevor Story, Greg Holland, and Marcell Ozuna also come back John’s way, which should help pretty much everywhere.
Deadline Grade: A
Really ballsy deadline from Johnny, cutting ties with two of the better keepers in the league to increase his short term chances. I think it’s a move he should have made, but I never thought he would actually do it. The offensive has been upgraded, and Hill and Holland will help those ratios too. The Rendon deal is gravy, and John keeps his 2nd, 3rd, 4th 5th pick in the draft...etc.
Team: Super Seager Bros.
Buyer/Seller: Seller
What He Needed: Draft Picks
What He Got: Nothin’
Deadline Grade: F
Tough break for Eric, he just didn’t have the assets. His biggest chips were Domingo Santana and Brad Hand, who was in heavy trade rumors and expected to be a setup man somewhere. Santana has been solid, and Eric would have taken pennies on the dollar (as he should have in the current market), but still no buyers appeared.
Team: Kids Back
Buyer/Seller: Buyer
What He Needed: 4th in runs, 1st in homers, 3rd in rbi, 5th in obp, last in steals. 59%, 67% without steals. 7th in ERA, 4th in whip, 11th in k/9, 6th in QS, 4th in sv. 51% pitching
What He Got: Nothin’
Deadline Grade: D
I was expecting some sort of last minute deal as is customary with Andy at the deadline, but crickets from the Musto camp. He certainly could have used help with steals and pitching. His offense is still dominant, but the other buyers are showing off much more complete teams.
Team: All Betts are off
Buyer/Seller: Buyer
What He Needed: The defending champ;s offense has been pretty good this year numbers wise, but it’s only winning him 49% of offensive categories.
His pitching rations have been good, top 5 in each, but he’s dead last in QS and 7th in saves. He’s tied for the last playoff spot but there were really only 6 buyers, so his path could be clear if he made a few big deals.
He needed OBP, NSV, QS
What He Got: It was a very quiet deadline for typically one of the most active trade deadline movers. He made just one deal, late on a sunday, shipping a 3rd rounder for Marwin Gonzalez.
Deadline Grade: C
Gonzalez is a great all around player and that position eligibility is tantalizing (Pflanz was getting prime Zobrist flashbacks without a doubt), but he needed more than this to contend for a repeat. This smelled of concession.
Team: Ozuna Matata
Buyer/Seller: Seller?
What He Needed: winning 40% of offensive categories, his offense has been bad all year, the pitching has been better, but none of it is title caliber. Kudos to Richie for making it this far with a team I predicted to finish in 11th.
He needed to decide what the heck he was doing.
What He Got: Typically an all-in or all-out guy, I was shocked to hear he wasn’t going in either direction. He wanted to stand pat unless a keeper deal came along. And one did. As outlined above, it was the biggest deal in Franchise history, involving 13 players, and sending 2 keepers back Richie’s way.
Deadline Grade: B+
Sale, Correa, Kershaw, and all of his draft picks make him an immediate 2018 title threat. He built for the future without exchanging a single draft pick. And I like the deal from his perspective. On top of that, he still has a shot at the playoffs this year, and who knows what will happen once you’re invited to the dance.
Team: Gettin’ Miggy With It
Buyer/Seller: Seller
What He Needed: Draft Picks
What He Got: He flipped McCutchen into a 2nd and a 6th, he traded Osuna to Jeremy for a 2nd, and secured a 5th rounder and future keeper Noah Syndergaard for DeGrom, Brantley, and Posey.
Deadline Grade: D
Perk was supposed to be a contender this year. He sold big last season and came into the season as one of my final 4 picks, but somehow he turned all those juicy picks into a crappy team, currently sitting in 10th. In his words, he got too many high draft picks last year, and not enough mid round picks. I’m not sure I follow the logic completely, but whatever works for ya.
This year, he kinda shipped everyone off. Like, I don’t know who he is expecting to keep besides Thor. Bold strategy Cotton.
Team: Xander the Great
Buyer/Seller: Seller
What He Needed: Draft Picks
What He Got: Sent Rendon away for a 1st and a 3rd, set Wood away for a 1st and a 7th, sent Nola for a 3rd and an 8th
Deadline Grade: A-
Dan played things very well at the deadline, and of all the sellers, he probably got the best haul (picks-wise). Not sure who he’s planning to keep after shipping off some talented young players, but 8 picks in the first 3 rounds should make up for that. As with Greg, my only negative was how much mid-tier talent is still left on the roster, but it wasn’t like he wasn’t trying to sell, the market just wasn’t there. Great job getting all those picks in a buyers market.
