Welcome to the Games that Really Count

Well, for half of us at least...

Congratulations to Russ, Pflanz, Mark, Eric, Richie and myself for making sure John didn't make the playoffs this year. Aside from Mark seemingly doing whatever he could to let him sneak in, we came together at the end and really pulled off a beautiful team effort. Suck it, John.

Actual congratulations for us all receiving a $50 playoff berth bonus (that's a thing, right?). Unfortunately, I don't have as much time as I would want to put together a playoff preview, but it would be irresponsible of me to not do something. So here it is - my way too quick playoff preview / predictions.

Week 1 Matchups

Russ vs. Mark:
Upon a brief look, this pitching matchup aggressively favors Mark. He gets two starts out of deGrom, and even though it's D-Backs and Dodgers, it's Jacob deGrom. Hamels get's Petco Park. Lynn and Lester have decent match-ups as well. On the other side we have Russ, who's injury riddled season is not going to have a "Kluber comes back in the nick of time" storyline to it. Furthermore, the Dodgers have decided to skip Ryu and Buehler's starts in the rotation (Eric you lucky bastard), so that's, well, devastating. And the ones that actually are playing are up against the likes of Brewers, Cardinals, Yankees. Rangers and Marlins are decent match-ups but, overall that's tough.
As much as I hate to say it, I think Mark's bats do enough to split the offensive categories, and with the pitching draw being what it is, it seems Mark is in a good position to get most of the pitching. I think Mark wins 6-3-1 as Russ still continues to struggle with the curse.

Pflanz vs. Richie:
Similarly to the first matchup, I think the hitting is going to be pretty competitive. These are two loaded lineups who are going to have to rely on some good pitching to go forward. Pflanz draws a two start weeks from his two best pitchers as well, as Bieber gets the Angels and the Twins and Berrios takes on the Nationals before going head to head with Bieber to close out the week. Richie is definitely going to find a way to watch the Mets - Dodgers game on Friday, as Syndergaard and Kershaw face off in what Richie hopes to God is a masterful pitching duel. Tonight and tomorrow are big for Pflanz - if Bieber and Berrios give him strong starts early and he's flexible at the end of the week to be in a position to not need starts, he'll have a serious advantage. Richie wins the bullpan matchup and it's not even close.
Prediction: I think Richie pulls off the second upset of the playoff 5-4-1 when the Kershaw - Syndergaard matchup is indeed a pitchers duel and the Bieber - Berrios matchup turns poorly for Pflanz to end the week.

Eric and I will take a week to catch our breathe, get some guys rested and healthy (Cruz, Moustakas, Kimbrel, Muncy) and ready for the following week. We have a potential passing of the torch matchup in round two between Russ and I, as well as four of the six teams bidding for their first title (I think that's right - correct me if I'm wrong).

Two teams who sold off the most last year and entered the draft with the most picks wound up on top of the league - best of luck to you next year Perkins. Congratulations to Eric for being crowned the regular season champion. We'll end this the way we started it - Welcome to the the Games that Really Count.

Trade Deadline Recap

I thought a lot about how to format this post - by team, by biggest to smallest trade, by picks received, by an artistic rendition of the trade deadline through the internal turmoil of John DeMovellan.... I've decided to simply go trade by trade, as they came in, with grades to follow, while lightly sprinkling in John DeMovellan turmoil throughout.

Trading kicked off July 21st, with John pulling the trigger on the first acquisition before slipping into a deep, dark coma. He sent Pflanz a first round pick for Kirby Yates - a talent that could only be rivaled by the likes of Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonso. Jokes aside - aggressive move but Yates has certainly been worthy of that price tag, and John knew the competition for closers was only going to increase as we got closer to deadline. Stay tuned for how that turned out for everyone. 

Trade number two was Greg sending Brad Pirates closer Felipe Vasquez. A player ranked just behind Kirby Yates, so Greg had to appreciate the price tag that top closers were getting right off the bat! If he didn't want to ask for a first, he most assuredly could have gotten a second. But Brad only had to surrender a ninth round pick... That negotiation must have been brutal!

Dan was the first person to announce himself as a seller, and trade number three was his first move. Russ bolstered his then first place team by sending a 1st and 6th rounder for Anthony Rendon and Kenta Maeda. I'm assuming Maeda was either a throw in or a flyer incase Russ needed innings. Either way, his 7.32 ERA over the last 30 days is readily available on the waiver wire for anybody who is interested. Anthony Rendon I believe is starting to be the most common name in trade deadline recaps. Greg acquired him late in the deadline along with Strasburg (another deadline constant) for a 3rd and a 7th last year, and John got him for a first and a fourth in 2017. Seems like nobody believes his production is going to keep up year to year, but nonetheless, he is a very solid and needed addition to Russ' championship hopes after the loss of Gallo and Moncada...

What happens next? Musto declares himself a seller. The sixth seed  - as of this writing - reads the terrain and, with only one other announced seller, and one other assumed seller, enters the market at the right time. Mark, along with myself, jump in right away and Musto adds two firsts, a third, and two fifth rounders in just a matter of hours. Mark gets a big bat and a closer of questionable character in Donaldson and Osuna - is anybody else reading this extremely unaware that Donaldson was still good at baseball? Anyways. As for myself, I had to compensate for the loss of Blake Snell and the realization that Severino wasn't going to be useful this year. I snagged up Stephen Strasburg, Trevor Bauer, and Justin Turner. 

Greg gets a sixth round pick from Pflanz for Taylor Rodgers. You've heard of him - nice guy, lives in Minnesota, saves some games, way better than Felipe Vasquez....

Enter Mr. Eddie Perkins. In his yearly letter to his fans (😐), he also announces himself a seller, and gets going on his trade spreadsheets. In trades 8 - 10, Perk dumps a BUNCH of talent. He turns Trevor Story, Max Muncy, Luis Castillo, Noah Syndergaard and Shane Greene into two first rounders, two second rounders, a fourth and a fifth, as well as two potential keepers in Blake Snell and Ozzie Albies. Richie brings in Noah Syndergaard and Shane Greene to what is already an electric pitching staff - gotta be honest, I didn't know this trade happened until I started writing this post. So, that was a little upsetting for me. Eric bolsters his equally impressive pitching staff with Luis Castillo, and the commish brings in a couple high powered bats to help his dormant offense. 

Perhaps Eric's biggest splash in this trade deadline was shocking John out of his coma by egregiously demoralizing his team spirit to the tune of a 9-0 shlacking. I think the last time I was this shocked by a knee jerk reaction was when I was a kid at the doctors office and I was put through my first, well, knee jerk reaction. As a kid, super cool. As someone who has to compete with Pflanz, super not cool. John sends Pete Alonso and Jose Ramirez to Pflanz for two first rounders, one of which was originally his. Listen, clearly this didn't go the way John was hoping. Every buyer had dumped their first rounders by now, since he was so late to the game, so, you know, fair enough. Sort of. It wasn't top five closer for a ninth round pick bad but like, it was close.

The rest were small transactions for last minute helpful pieces - gonna list them out so they're all here and then dive into deadline grades.

Pflanz gets Emilio Pagan from Dan for a fifth rounder.

Russ gets Alex Colome from Dan for a ninth rounder. Just kidding, it was a fifth. A ninth rounder would be crazy.

I make another deal with Perk for Tommy Pham in exchange for a sixth.

Russ gets Mitch Garver and Kirby Yates for a second and a twelfth.

Mark gets Cole Hamels from John for a seventh. 

16 trades is up from 13 last year and 14 the year before. I think the last couple years have started a trend of bigger blockbuster deals between fewer people as opposed to more smaller deals spread around to everyone - this year saw a good number of both, with a lot of keeper talent getting juggled around which is always fun to see. 

Let's kick things off with the sellers: Dan, Greg, John, Perk, and Musto.

Musto - B+

I like what Musto did a lot. As I mentioned in my last write-up, I think Andy was right on the line of being a dangerous buyer or seller, just had to decide which way to go. Other than listing five untouchables in a four player keeper league, I think he did a lot of things right. I think Darvish and Santana are players he could've tried to sell a little harder, and he probably could've shopped the talent he did trade a little bit more. But he took in a great haul of picks and goes into the draft with Springer, Rizzo, Greinke and Severino as a solid place to start.

John - D+

Ugh. My communication with John over the last week or so has been, interesting. And entertaining. He did manage to acquire some picks before Sunday struck midnight, so I can't fail him. But, his yearly determination to not sell left him with a lot of picks left on the table. Luis Castillo got a first and a fifth in return - I think it's crazy to think that Jose Ramirez AND Pete Alonso wouldn't have drawn at least that price tag if they were on the market for more than 6 minutes. He walks away from the deadline with a first, a second, a seventh and a twelfth, and still a super kick-ass team that's going to compete!! 💩

Greg - F

Obviously a tough year with not a lot to sell, but there are pieces on this team that certainly could've been sold - Eugenio Suarez is having an insane year, and Eddie Rosario is a productive bat on what, shockingly enough, is a great Minnesota Twins team. Greg acquired a 9th and 6th round pick for two closers. My opinion on that I believe has been made clear.

Dan - A-

Not a huge splash made, but I have a hard time making the argument that Dan could've done or gotten more. The deadline talent he had at his disposable wasn't overwhelming, and, rightfully so, he wasn't interested in moving any of his studs. He got really unlucky with injuries - Mondesi and Stanton would've taken in a nice haul. I'm a little surprised he couldn't get someone to take a stab at Mondesi as a flyer for a playoff one category contributor. But, like I said, hard to fault him for that. If Stanton returns healthy next year he gets another stab at entering the draft with one of the best collection of keepers in the league.

Perk - A

I gotta tell ya, the level of negotiation as well as dedication to selling his players does a great deal for my letter grade evaluation. As much as we give him a hard time, the Perkins flare for the dramatic is certainly an asset to the league. He is also going to enter the draft with Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, Rhys Hoskins and Ozzie Albies as his keepers, along with an additional two first rounders, two second rounders, fourth and fifth. Jorge Soler was the only player I'm surprised didn't find a new home - I would've taken him myself but Pham was a better fit for the categories I was prioritizing. Perk, please remember these compliments when we're all annoyed with you early in the draft.

So that leaves us the seven teams with less picks than when they started: Jeremy, Russ, Richie, Pflanz, Brad, Eric and Mark.

Grading myself feels weird, so I'll just say, I'm overall pretty happy with how this went for me. But, I gave up a lot, so if it doesn't turn into a championship, I'm gonna have a tough year next year. Also, ending last weeks match-up with a pitching line of 7.00-1.69-9.00-2-5 was pretty alarming, especially since Bauer and Strasburg contributed heavily to the inflammation of those numbers. Unsettling for sure, but I'm still confident in my pitching for the home stretch. On a brighter note, in the last three and a half days, my offensive numbers are 34-13-31-2-.438, with Story and Muncy playing a part and seemingly electrifying the dugout. I've seen what my team can do, both at their best and at their worst. I'm confident that I've acquired a curse that will keep them at their worst when it truly matters.

Mark - B-

I think it's obvious Mark wasn't pushing all of his chips into the middle this year. Only thing I'm a little surprised by is that Mark didn't jump at the keeper level talent that was available. I love me some Benny too (I inquired about him actually, and was completely ignored...), but I think there were some better options out there for the taking and he could've bolstered his already very powerful keeper core of Bellinger, Torres and deGrom. But, if he's a believer, then all is well in Mark land, and he adds a couple useful pieces to be a dark horse. He draws John, Perk and Greg in three of his last four weeks, so the odds seem to be in his favor.

Pflanz - B+

Speaking of the better keeper options out there for the taking.... I only know this because he told me, but, Pflanz' strategy was to keep his steady pitching pretty much the same and try to go over the top on offense to try and outduel those of us with crazy pitching. Dumping Yates was certainly interesting, but I guess when it's all said and done he flipped it for Alonso/Ramirez so, good job I guess? Pitching is young and bullpen is weak (in comparison to his competition), but offense is a little horrifying, especially if Khris Davis remembers how to hit home runs. Or just baseballs in general...

Eric - A-

Eric just, didn't need much... The first couple weeks of his season were strangely not commensurate to his roster. I mean, he was in last for two weeks I think, which is crazy. He's healthy now (well almost - Edwin is a major bummer for him) and adding an extra arm just solidifies his rotation as one of the best in the league. Bullpen, like Pflanz, also feels lacking when put up against some of the other contenders. Could he have made a move for another bat? Sure. Do I blame him for not? Sure don't. He's set up for title run and didn't have to sacrifice his draft to do so. 

Richie - C+

You never know which deadline Richie you're going to get. When you don't get super exciting trigger happy Richie, it's always just, disappointing. But only a sentence in to this, admittedly I already think that grade is harsh. But I'm going to keep it there. Hopefully it bugs him. I think if Richie wasn't satisfied with his keepers for the next half decade, he would've left his mark all over this deadline. Richie is going to need a lot of things to go his way to compete - get some guys back healthy, guys that are hot staying hot, and his stud pitching actually pitching like studs.... But like Mark, he did what he needed to do to stay in the game without throwing away his draft, and gets three sellers in the last four weeks of the season.

Brad - F

Feels like Brad should've kept shopping at the Gregory Tree Shop to see if he could get any more bargains. He adds Felipe Vasquez, who as discussed, is a stud. And then that's it. Not to harp on it, but the keeper caliber names out there could have really helped Brad's roster, short and long term, and aside from having arguably the best hitter and best pitcher in fantasy baseball, he now sits in the 8th seed, and with multiple bolstered rosters to compete with, he may find it difficult to get back into contention.

Russ - C

There was a lot given, that's all. In his first non-commish deadline, I imagine there was a lot of frustration in Russ' front office. He gave up his first, second, fifth and sixth pick for Rendon, Yates, Colome and Garver. The frustration comes on the injury list, where Russ has gotten killed. The IL has affected everyone this year, but couldn't be worse timing as we get ready for the home stretch. Russ is already equipped with a roster ready to compete for the title, especially if some people get healthier faster than they're expected to. But for what was out there and for what Russ gave up, I think he could've gotten more. 

To be clear, for Russ and everyone, these are deadline grades, not roster grades. I think Russ, Eric, Pflanz and myself are best positioned for a run to the ship, but I'm sure Mark, Richie and Brad are going to have plenty to say about that over the next couple of weeks. The final five weeks should be as exciting as the first 17 - everything is up for the taking! Best of luck to everyone. Except John. 

Let the Games Begin

Well, this is fun. Not like, spring break with your feet up fun. More like, first row of a roller coaster hanging off the edge fun. Currently, at this moment, I am the lesser half of a 1-2 match-up right now that is very likely going to end in a 5-5 tie. The 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th seed are all winning their match-ups by 2 or more games. It's July 21st and we're 140 categories into the season, so you'd think, "well, gonna lose two games on these guys, that's a bummer". When I wake up tomorrow morning I will have fallen from 2nd to 6th place.

But, that's really been the story of the season. Standing jumps like that have happened to most of us this year. Eric was at the bottom to start and now in 3rd. Andy was at the top for a while and now in 9th. Hell, I was in 11th for a while myself. Has been the tightest this league has been since I can remember.

As I mentioned, it's July 21st, so this begs the question, what the actual fuck is about to happen at this deadline? The MLB Trade deadline is Wednesday, July 31st, which will give us all four days to digest where the dust has settled before making decisions on our 2019 championship hopes. Would hate to be Pflanz' therapist right about now.

What we know:
1. Jeremy, Russ, Eric, Brad, and John are definitely not selling. I'm throwing John in there because, well I don't need to explain that one. Also he just traded his first round pick. For a closer. Of the last place team in the NL West. Who has every reason to try and trade him. It's John so, I'm sure it'll work out in his interest.
2. Greg and Dan are definitely selling. I know Dan is cause he sent us all a text that was like, "Hey guys I'm officially selling." I know Greg is because I got a telegram from a birdhouse. Also he's 19.5 games back.

What I predict for the rest of the crew:
Pflanz / Richie: If this match-up is 5-5, trying to predict what will happen would be like golfing with a hockey stick. If Richie wins a lopsided match-up, Pflanz will sell. If Pflanz wins a lopsided match-up, Richie will have a trade rash outbreak and do whatever he cans to itch it.
Mark: When Mark gets drunk he thinks he's the best fantasy baseball player in the universe. So, bender not withstanding, I think he (hopefully) takes a big loss next week and decides to join a weak field of sellers.
Perka: It would be a tough climb into legitimate contention, and I think John is going to put the nail in the coffin for Perkins next week. He also seems to have the most pitching pieces to move out of the bunch.
Andy: Well, unless Andy decides to sell. Andy would be a scary buyer and a scary seller. Could either go all in and hope to continue the run he's been on, which, especially from the pitching side, has been pretty electric. Or, could be the phone receiving the most texts over the next two weeks. Someone should remind him to turn the alerts back on in our GroupMe chat.

Want to paint a clear picture of the remainder of the season:
Upcoming match-up is week 16. The MLB trade deadline is midway through week 17, and The Franchise trade deadline is the last day of week 17. August 5th will be the beginning of week 18 which is the first of the final five weeks of the regular season. 50 category wins up for grabs, and it looks like every single one is going to count. Just ask the asshole about to drop from 2nd place to 6th in one week...

So, let the games begin. Best time of the year. Stay close to your phones and on top of box scores. This is when the Epstein in all of us gets a good tickle. I wish everyone the best of luck. Except for John.