MLB NEWS

Monday, July 27, 2015

Week 15 Recap

Well, the all-star break is behind us, and so is our extra long week 14. Keep in mind, these matchups had 3 extra days of stats, so when you double take reading some of these statlines, I’ll know you didn’t read this intro part.

Buyers and Sellers
The hot stove is heating up! We’ve already seen some blockbuster deals and I have a feeling we’ll see a few more before this week is done. Here’s what we know about who’s buying and who’s selling so far.

Buyers:
Andy – His groupme is muted, but he usually surfaces just before the deadline to make a few deals.
Russ – Picked up Holland and Crawford a month ago, now adds Cueto, he might be done at this point.
Eddie – No moves yet but this was his ‘all-in’ year after tanking last season, expect some wheeling and dealing soon.
Pflanz – Has been in trade talks, he will make a splash soon too, I think.
Mark – Just picked up King Felix and Ortiz, although had to give up a good amount to get them, and got a higher draft pick out of it. Slightly more of a ‘buyer’ move than a lateral move though.  
John – Already added Kershaw, Always buying.
Richie – Very confident, very aggressive, grabbed Adrian Gonzalez from Brad.

???
Dan – Only recently pushed himself towards the buyers group after giving up picks for Posey and Upton, but left himself enough room to flip sides if he has to.
Scanlon – Never sure what he’s doing. I guess it seems like he’s buying? He just likes trades.

Sellers:
Brad – Shipped off Kershaw, Holland, and Adrian Gonzalez, would probably deal more but this carcass has pretty much been picked clean.
Eric – Has already collected 2 first rounders, to go along with his own, and still has assets to shop.
Greg – Has put up the white flag, listening to offers on all but Harper.

The bottom line is, it’s a good year to be a seller, and I don’t know why more teams didn’t embrace it. Brad made his decision early, and probably traded a lot of his players too early when he could have waited to get a bidding war. Greg’s decision has been made for him, as he’s pretty far out of it. And Eric, in my opinion, made a really smart play by throwing in the towel this year and collecting draft picks for next year. He’s zigging while everyone else is zagging. Last year, Pflanz, Perk, Russ and Greg were big sellers, and the market was pretty clogged, leading to a lot of last minute deals. This year, a lot of the biggest available trade chips have already been moved, and we’re still 6 days from the actual deadline. I’m still waiting for a lot of buyers to make moves, should be a great 6 days.

Week 14 Recap:

Russ 8 – Dan 2
Russ was able to hang on, despite a great Sunday night start from Eduardo Rodriguez, to beat Dan by a large margin. With solid offensive numbers, including a .380 OBP (second in the league for the week) and 6 net steals (tied for first), Russ took 4 of 5 offensive categories to go along with 4 of 5 pitching categories. The Commish brilliantly motivated team captain Carlos Gonzalez by dangling him on the trade market. CarGo responded with a "Franchise Player of the Week"  9-5-12-.452-0  line. For the record, he ain't going anywhere. Pedestrian numbers were enough to help Russ win 4 of 5 pitching categories, though I will point out Craig Kimbrel had a 0.00-0.17-10.50-0-6 line in 6 innings.  It’s the second straight 8-2 victory for Russ, as he has moved into second place in the standings. News came out this morning that Russ is dealing away a first round pick for certified ace Johnny Cueto. The only weak pitching category he had was quality starts, and adding a 5th starter to the mix should help. Will he make more moves? Stay tuned.

This loss knocks Dan back to 8th place, but still just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. Dan is just 4-15 over his last 2 matchups, but made some moves on Sunday to show the league he’s probably a buyer. Chris Davis was his most effective offensive piece in this matchup, hitting 3 homers and collecting 8 RBI’s (which proved big as Dan won RBI’s by 3). Unfortunately Cole Hamels’ no-hitter didn’t translate into many category wins for him, although his team did lead the league with 9 QS this week. All 6 of Dan’s starters were solid, but he still barely missed out on all 3 ratios categories. Dan recently closed on a deal that would send Ellsbury, McCann, a first round, and a sixth round draft pick to Eric for Buster Posey and Justin Upton (the #2 and #3 picks of the draft this year), so it’s clear he’s focusing on improving his lineup. It’s a message to the league that despite two tough losses, it’s an odd year and he’s going to try to make the playoffs, so watch out.

Richie 7 – Brad 2
Midway through this one, Brad’s best offensive player moved from his dugout to the opposition’s. Adrian Gonzalez put up better numbers for Brad than for Richie in this matchup, with a 5-3-5-.516-0 line, but it wasn’t enough as Richie took over the offensive categories by a 4-0-1 score. Both offenses looked rough in this one, though. Richie’s 42 runs ranked 4th in the league, but homers, RBI, and OBP all ranked in the bottom third of the league…yet he still went 3-0 in those categories…now if only someone could put together some charts and numbers that show when people get away with lucky wins… Richie also enjoyed a breakout week for Ian Desmond, a player associated with being one of the worst trade prizes this season. Desmond tossed up an 8-4-7-.405-0 line to lead Richie on offense.

On the pitching side, Richie was able to take three of the five categories and came close to winning the other two. Richie’s Gerrit Cole was the most effective pitcher on either side, posting a 1.80-.80-8.40-2-0 line over 15 innings. But overall, the pitching, like the offense in this matchup, was underwhelming. Richie won WHIP with the 7th best mark in the league, and did the same with QS. He did have 9 saves, tops in the league…but he could have won the category with 0 (Brad posted a -1). So as Brad continues to track towards the basement, Richie gets a big win, his second straight 7-2 victory, and it moves him into 7th place. He’s now just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, he’s certainly not done making deals, and he’s got some talent coming off the DL soon. I don’t know if I’m ready to call him a contender, but he’s making a pretty good case.

Andy 6 – Eddie 2
This was one of the rare times in season we got the #1 and #2 teams matched up against each other. On the offensive side, Perk had a bounce back week, ranking 2nd in Runs, 3rd in homers, and 3rd in steals. The loss of Miggy is still hurting him, but offense is why he’s been so great this year, so it was good to see some of the production come back, this time in the form of Todd Frazier (7-2-10-.279-2) and Kyle Seager (11-3-4-.375). Unfortunately, that’s where the good news stops for Perk. He only won 2 out of 5 offensive categories, and he got swept in pitching. Perk’s starting pitching has seen better days, and the Carrasco, Jimemez, Verlander attack might not get it done down the stretch.

Andy’s pitching wasn’t the spectacular machine we have gotten used to, but still, it was enough to sweep against the #2 team. Liriano (1.50-1.00-16.50-1-0 in 6 innings) and Greinke (1.20-0.73-8.40-2-0 in 15 innings), quite possibly the league’s best 1-2 punch, was electric once again, but the back of the rotation faltered, and pushed Andy’s ratios up. He still finished in the top 6 in ERA, K/9, NSV, and tied for second in the league with 9 QS, so yeah….that’s somehow a bad week for Andy. 

Offensively, Musto continued to churn out homeruns, belting 13 on the week and getting great lines out of Bautista (6-4-6-.275-0), Jay Bruce (5-3-11-.341-(-1)), and Josh Donaldson (5-3-8-.350-0).

So in 2 matchups without Cabrera, Perk is 4-13. But the real problem seems to be on the other side of the ball; he’s 3-10 in pitching categories in the last 3 matchups. This team does not look as rock solid as it did a month ago, he’s dropped to third place and Pflanz is just 4.5 behind him in 4th, look for Perk to make some moves soon.

Andy on the other hand is in first and his lead is growing. He has 8 games over second place Russ and his lineup is firing on all cylinders offensively and defensively. He’s 45-20 since his last loss in week 8. If he wakes up and jumps on the horn to make some trades, he could really turn this team into a juggernaut.

Jeremy 8 – Eric 2
This was the straw that broke the camel’s back. After a great rookie playoff run in his first Franchise season, Eric is now cleaning house and re-positioning for the 2016 campaign.  I can’t say I blame him, he’s 1-7-1 in the last 9 weeks with the 1 win coming against Greg. This team has (or, had) a lot of talent, but just couldn’t get it done. Having said that, Eric’s offense was actually pretty good this week; 3rd in RBI, 1st in OBP (.396 wow!), and top 6 in the other 4 categories. Good enough to win a couple of offensive categories. The pitching however, lacked any sort of punch besides Shelby Miller (1.35-.90-8.10-2-0) and Cueto (1.50-1.25-5.25-1-0). The loss moves Eric back to ninth, and I expect things to plummet from there.

Scanlon, still behind Eric in the standings even AFTER beating him 8-2, still has his foot on the gas, cruising toward the playoffs despite the more than likely odds that he won’t be able to find a parking spot. He put up some nice offensive numbers this week, ranking in the top 3 in homers, runs and RBI’s thanks to Pujols (7-3-6-.317-1), Hunter Pence (5-2-8-.425-0) and especially from the now departed David Ortiz (6-4-11.378), who’s Sunday night numbers pushed homers and RBI’s in favor of Scanlon. A bigger story was on the pitching end, where Scanlon swept all 5 categories from the struggling Eric. Jeremy’s team pitching line (2.40-109-8.20-7-9) was one of the best in the whole league this week. A holy trinity of fabulous statlines from Colin McHugh (2.08-1.46-5.54-2-0), Andrew Miller (1.80-.40-12.60-0-5) and the now departed Felix Hernandez (1.38-1.15-8.31-2-0), led the way in the sweep. I should mention that Jeremy has since traded two of the biggest impact players in the win, plus a higher draft pick, for a different number 2 (Price), and another closer (Jansen). 

Peculiar. But still, 10th place and CLIMBING! Scanlon is 15-4 in the last 2 matchups and had a very good week. He will also make more trades, this is a fact.

Pflanz 7 – Mark 2
For the second week in a row, Pflanz is the victor in a heavyweight offensive battle. Last week he combined with John for 25 homers and 70 RBI’s, this week (in extended time of course), he and Mark combined for 30 homers and 93 RBI’s! After taking home the “Offense of the Week Award” last week, I think I’ve got to give it to Pflanz again. He finished with a team statline of 54-15-43-.374-4, or, by ranking: 1st-1st-3rd-4th-5th. Pretty damn good for the second week in a row. Joey Votto was his most valuable player, with a 11-3-6-.638-0 line (.638 in an extended week WTF?!?!), but Dozier (5-2-5-.371-0), Machado (4-2-3-.410-0), and Cain (5-3-4-.318-1) were all great complements. Coincidentally, Mark also had a stellar offensive week, and played Pflanz to a 2-2-1 tie in the offensive categories. (This was the only reason I didn’t want him to get the offense of the week. But no one else can beat his numbers so…congrats Pflanz). Mark had Robinson Cano finally wake up to post a 10-4-11-.409-0, and A-Rod kept on carrying with 7-5-7-.303-0, Melky Cabrera also deserves mention for his 7-2-10-.390. This was a great offensive stalemate from two teams in similar positions.

So Mark had a great offensive week and matched Pflanz’s award-worthy offensive week. But even one of Mark’s best pitching performances of the season wasn’t enough to grab a win from Pflanz on the pitching side. Pitching is where Pflanz grabbed the hammer and drove Mark into the ground. In the third pitching sweep of the week, Pflanz had the most impressive line of anyone in the league. Leading me to bestow upon him, the coveted, “Pitching of the Week Award”. Yes that’s right, Pflanz is getting both awards. He had a hell of a week. His pitching line (1.93-1.04-10.33-6-3) featured the league’s best ERA, WHIP, and k/9, while still ranking 5th in QS and 7th in NSV. Chris Archer (2.08-1.00-10.38-2), Jacob deGrom (1.32-0.51-10.54-2-0), Madison Bumgarner (1.50-1.00-7.50-1-0), and James Shields (0.90-1.70-11.70-0-0) made up a elite rotation. Besides A.J. Ramos, who threw all of 2.0 innings, every pitcher had an ERA under 2.70.

As I said, Mark’s week was excellent as well, he ranked in the top 3 of every ratio category after a great last week from long time player Davis Price (1.80-0.87-11.40-2-0). But Jeurys Familia’s +5 NSV last week caught up to him in the form of a -2 this week, and Jordan Zimmerman had another tough week. For Mark, the loss knocks him back to 5th, as he continues to struggle with anything but bad teams.

For Pflanz, the second great week in a row moves him up to 4th place, just 4.5 games behind a sliding Perka. I expect Pflanz to make a few moves to solidify what is already a surging lineup and pitching staff. This is the hottest team in the league.

John 5 – Greg 5
Well this will kill the champ’s momentum. A 5-5 tie to a team that STILL hasn’t plugged in a utility player. What the fuck Greg!!! Greg had just 3 homers this week (John thankfully beat him there), and was also able to put together a very good OBP of .375. Bryce Harper (5-1-3-.429-0) continues to have a great season and Greg has rightfully expressed that he’s the only untouchable on the team. John had a nice week from Teixeira (6-2-3-.486-1) and another ‘Holy Shit!’ week from Mike Trout (7-5-9-.410-1), but he still only took 3/5 offensive categories.

Greg, despite not winning a week since week 6, managed to steal 3 of the pitching categories to force a draw in this one against the defending champ.. Good weeks from Lester (1.26-0.70-8.16-2-0), Cashner (1.29-0.86-6.43-1-0), and Volquez (1.96-1.07-7.07-2-0) should serve as good showcase lines for the right buyer at the upcoming trade deadline (HELLO EDDIE, ARE YOU OUT THERE?). 

John had his first ‘I’m so happy I got Kershaw!’ week (0.00-0.35-13.24-2-0) and 2/3rds of his closer trio was pretty solid, but his other starters pretty much blew up, and this will be a tough outcome to swallow as we approach playoff crunch time.

This is the first non-loss for Greg since back to back draws in weeks 8 and 9. He remains in last, and I suspect we will see players start flying off his roster very soon. John will stay in 6th although he missed out on a great chance to move up to 5th place. He’s just 1.5 games behind Mark, but now Richie is a little closer on his tail. John will probably look to make more moves before the deadline is over.

Commish’s Power Rankings
1.       Andy (last week: 1) – He had a "King of the Hill" match and defended the belt, he deserves to be 1.
2.       Russ (3) – Just as in the real standings, Russ moves up to #2. The addition of Cueto is icing on the cake.
3.       Pflanz (6) – Has put up better numbers than his record shows in the last couple of weeks, hottest team in The Franchise.
4.       Eddie (2) – A beatdown at the hands of Andy, who hasn’t been there this year? This team did show some improvement
5.       Richie (7) – Another week, another 7-2 victory, and I have confidence that his trade karma will come around
6.       Mark (6) – Had a good week despite the loss, still struggling with good teams, but Felix and Ortiz should help with that.
7.       John (4) – You tied Greg? Come on man. He doesn’t even have a utility player!
8.       Jeremy (10) – Call it crazy all you want, he wants the playoffs. He’s only lost 1 of the last 6 weeks.
9.       Dan (8) – Another week, another blowout loss, how much longer will he hang on?
10.   Eric (9) – Already has 3 first round picks in the 2016 draft, that’s how you sell.
11.   Brad (11) – Football is right around the corner
12.   Greg (12)  - Make some deadline deals to show us you’re still alive?

Week 16 Matchup mini-preview

Eric vs. Russ Russ will look to continue his quest for a bye week against a team that conveniently just traded all it’s best players.

Richie vs. Dan Richie will try to make Dan’s buyer/seller decision for him

Perk vs. Brad Nothing gets you back on the winning track like a week against 11th place. Only 3 more weeks til Miggy’s back.

Pflanz vs. Scanlon Two teams on a tear, if Scanlon wins this, he belongs in the discussion.

Greg vs. Mark Mark needs a win to get back on track, can Greg play spoiler again?

John vs. Andy Andy could knock the champ out of the playoff picture, while John could use a statement bounceback.


Friday, July 24, 2015

Luckdate

(Luck + update...get it?)

During my fantasy baseball withdrawals over the all star break I went the extra mile and extrapolated my luck idea across all categories.  It's not a perfect system and I'm still finding some flaws in it but I'm still digging it.  Here are the results:

First, team luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team statsSorted from luckiest to unluckiest
PosManagerProj W%Act W%VariancePosManagerProj W%Act W%Variance
1Andy0.5910.6180.0272Eddie0.4960.5750.079
4Mark 0.5700.536-0.0343Russ0.4960.5540.058
8Eric0.5490.482-0.06711Brad0.3940.4250.031
T5Pflanz0.5330.511-0.022T6John0.4800.5070.027
E9Richie0.5250.471-0.054E1Andy0.5910.6180.027
A2Eddie0.4960.5750.079A7Dan0.4940.4960.002
M3Russ0.4960.5540.058M12Greg0.4030.393-0.010
7Dan0.4940.4960.0025Pflanz0.5330.511-0.022
6John0.4800.5070.0274Mark 0.5700.536-0.034
10Jeremy0.4700.432-0.03810Jeremy0.4700.432-0.038
12Greg0.4030.393-0.0109Richie0.5250.471-0.054
11Brad0.3940.4250.0318Eric0.5490.482-0.067

Followed by offensive luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team statsSorted from luckiest to unluckiest
PosManagerProj W%Act W%VariancePosManagerProj W%Act W%Variance
8Eric0.6250.457-0.1681Andy0.4800.6070.127
O5Pflanz0.6000.543-0.057O11Brad0.4140.5220.107
F4Mark 0.5750.557-0.018F2Eddie0.4890.5500.061
F3Russ0.5650.565-0.001F7Dan0.4400.4860.046
E9Richie0.5030.443-0.060E6John0.4750.5140.039
N2Eddie0.4890.5500.061N10Jeremy0.3720.3790.007
S1Andy0.4800.6070.127S3Russ0.5650.565-0.001
E6John0.4750.5140.039E4Mark 0.5750.557-0.018
12Greg0.4620.378-0.0835Pflanz0.6000.543-0.057
7Dan0.4400.4860.0469Richie0.5030.443-0.060
11Brad0.4140.5220.10712Greg0.4620.378-0.083
10Jeremy0.3720.3790.0078Eric0.6250.457-0.168
Followed by defensive luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team statsSorted from luckiest to unluckiest
PosManagerProj W%Act W%VariancePosManagerProj W%Act W%Variance
1Andy0.7020.629-0.0733Russ0.4260.5430.117
D10Jeremy0.5680.486-0.082D2Eddie0.5030.6000.097
E4Mark 0.5660.514-0.052E12Greg0.3450.4070.062
F9Richie0.5480.500-0.048F8Eric0.4720.5070.035
E7Dan0.5480.507-0.040E6John0.4840.5000.016
N2Eddie0.5030.6000.097N5Pflanz0.4650.4790.013
S6John0.4840.5000.016S7Dan0.5480.507-0.040
E8Eric0.4720.5070.035E11Brad0.3730.329-0.044
5Pflanz0.4650.4790.0139Richie0.5480.500-0.048
3Russ0.4260.5430.1174Mark 0.5660.514-0.052
11Brad0.3730.329-0.0441Andy0.7020.629-0.073
12Greg0.3450.4070.06210Jeremy0.5680.486-0.082
And the mother load, the categorical breakdowns:

EXPECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
Team RHRRBIOBPNSBERAWHIPK/9QSNSV
John0.5850.6890.5430.5050.0550.5040.5010.5140.4910.409
Greg0.3970.3920.3860.5230.6110.3070.4420.3800.4540.143
Mark 0.4980.3720.4200.4781.1040.5610.5010.4180.3620.986
Jeremy0.4830.6690.4280.439-0.1610.5250.5100.4410.6010.764
Andy0.5060.5010.5760.5170.3020.6920.5690.4870.8390.920
Pflanz0.5710.6200.5410.5020.7650.4950.5350.5890.5640.143
Eric0.4650.3720.5540.5081.2280.5970.5520.4330.4360.343
Richie0.5060.4810.5060.5020.5180.4950.5010.5400.5280.676
Eddie0.5190.6200.6180.5080.1790.4890.4000.6030.3260.698
Brad0.4720.3720.4120.4510.3640.4270.5350.4940.509-0.101
Dan0.4440.4910.4980.4960.2710.3850.4510.5270.6560.720
Russ0.5530.4220.5170.5710.7650.5220.5010.5740.2340.299
ACTUAL WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
Team RHRRBIOBPNSBERAWHIPK/9QSNSV
John0.5710.5710.5360.4290.4640.5000.5000.3570.5710.571
Greg0.2860.3570.2140.5710.4640.3570.5000.3570.3930.429
Mark 0.5710.4640.4290.5000.8210.6430.5710.2860.3570.714
Jeremy0.3570.5360.3930.3570.2500.5710.4290.3570.4290.643
Andy0.7860.5000.7860.5710.3930.6430.6430.5000.6790.679
Pflanz0.4640.3930.6070.5710.6790.4290.5000.6430.6070.214
Eric0.3570.2860.5360.4290.6790.7140.5000.5000.4640.357
Richie0.3930.5000.3570.5000.4640.4290.5000.5000.5710.500
Eddie0.5360.7500.6430.5000.3210.5710.4290.8570.4290.714
Brad0.7140.5360.5360.4290.3930.2140.3570.3570.5360.179
Dan0.4290.6790.5360.3570.4290.3570.4290.5710.6430.536
Russ0.5360.4290.4290.7860.6430.5710.6430.7140.3210.464
WINNING PERCENTAGE VARIANCE
Team RHRRBIOBPNSBERAWHIPK/9QSNSV
John-0.014-0.118-0.007-0.0760.409-0.004-0.001-0.1570.0800.162
Greg-0.111-0.035-0.1720.048-0.1470.0500.058-0.023-0.0610.286
Mark 0.0730.0920.0090.022-0.2830.0820.070-0.132-0.005-0.272
Jeremy-0.126-0.133-0.035-0.0820.4110.046-0.081-0.084-0.172-0.121
Andy0.280-0.0010.2100.0540.091-0.0490.0740.013-0.160-0.241
Pflanz-0.107-0.2270.0660.069-0.086-0.066-0.0350.0540.0430.071
Eric-0.108-0.086-0.018-0.079-0.5490.117-0.0520.0670.0280.014
Richie-0.1130.019-0.149-0.002-0.054-0.066-0.001-0.0400.043-0.176
Eddie0.0170.1300.025-0.0080.1420.0820.0290.2540.1030.016
Brad0.2420.1640.124-0.0220.029-0.213-0.178-0.1370.0270.280
Dan-0.0150.1880.038-0.1390.158-0.028-0.0220.044-0.013-0.184
Russ-0.0170.007-0.0880.215-0.1220.0490.1420.1400.0870.165
So like I said, some of this is kind of messed up.  How does Jeremy have a negative expected winning percentage in Net Stolen Bases?  How does Mark have a NSB W% over 100%?  The answer is, I told you it's not perfect at the beginning of this post so get off my back.  

In the last grid, I highlighted the luck that fell far outside the norm.  For instance, Brad is 10-4 in the runs category but he's actually scored less runs than the league average.  On the flip side, Pflanz has a 5-8-1 record in the HR category even though his team has 13 more home runs than league average, nearly a HR/week.

I almost mustered enough energy to write a blurb on each team regarding their luck (or lack thereof).  Almost.