Luckdate

(Luck + update...get it?)

During my fantasy baseball withdrawals over the all star break I went the extra mile and extrapolated my luck idea across all categories.  It's not a perfect system and I'm still finding some flaws in it but I'm still digging it.  Here are the results:

First, team luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	1	Andy	0.591	0.618	0.027		2	Eddie	0.496	0.575	0.079
	4	Mark	0.570	0.536	-0.034		3	Russ	0.496	0.554	0.058
	8	Eric	0.549	0.482	-0.067		11	Brad	0.394	0.425	0.031
T	5	Pflanz	0.533	0.511	-0.022	T	6	John	0.480	0.507	0.027
E	9	Richie	0.525	0.471	-0.054	E	1	Andy	0.591	0.618	0.027
A	2	Eddie	0.496	0.575	0.079	A	7	Dan	0.494	0.496	0.002
M	3	Russ	0.496	0.554	0.058	M	12	Greg	0.403	0.393	-0.010
	7	Dan	0.494	0.496	0.002		5	Pflanz	0.533	0.511	-0.022
	6	John	0.480	0.507	0.027		4	Mark	0.570	0.536	-0.034
	10	Jeremy	0.470	0.432	-0.038		10	Jeremy	0.470	0.432	-0.038
	12	Greg	0.403	0.393	-0.010		9	Richie	0.525	0.471	-0.054
	11	Brad	0.394	0.425	0.031		8	Eric	0.549	0.482	-0.067

Followed by offensive luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	8	Eric	0.625	0.457	-0.168		1	Andy	0.480	0.607	0.127
O	5	Pflanz	0.600	0.543	-0.057	O	11	Brad	0.414	0.522	0.107
F	4	Mark	0.575	0.557	-0.018	F	2	Eddie	0.489	0.550	0.061
F	3	Russ	0.565	0.565	-0.001	F	7	Dan	0.440	0.486	0.046
E	9	Richie	0.503	0.443	-0.060	E	6	John	0.475	0.514	0.039
N	2	Eddie	0.489	0.550	0.061	N	10	Jeremy	0.372	0.379	0.007
S	1	Andy	0.480	0.607	0.127	S	3	Russ	0.565	0.565	-0.001
E	6	John	0.475	0.514	0.039	E	4	Mark	0.575	0.557	-0.018
	12	Greg	0.462	0.378	-0.083		5	Pflanz	0.600	0.543	-0.057
	7	Dan	0.440	0.486	0.046		9	Richie	0.503	0.443	-0.060
	11	Brad	0.414	0.522	0.107		12	Greg	0.462	0.378	-0.083
	10	Jeremy	0.372	0.379	0.007		8	Eric	0.625	0.457	-0.168

Followed by defensive luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	1	Andy	0.702	0.629	-0.073		3	Russ	0.426	0.543	0.117
D	10	Jeremy	0.568	0.486	-0.082	D	2	Eddie	0.503	0.600	0.097
E	4	Mark	0.566	0.514	-0.052	E	12	Greg	0.345	0.407	0.062
F	9	Richie	0.548	0.500	-0.048	F	8	Eric	0.472	0.507	0.035
E	7	Dan	0.548	0.507	-0.040	E	6	John	0.484	0.500	0.016
N	2	Eddie	0.503	0.600	0.097	N	5	Pflanz	0.465	0.479	0.013
S	6	John	0.484	0.500	0.016	S	7	Dan	0.548	0.507	-0.040
E	8	Eric	0.472	0.507	0.035	E	11	Brad	0.373	0.329	-0.044
	5	Pflanz	0.465	0.479	0.013		9	Richie	0.548	0.500	-0.048
	3	Russ	0.426	0.543	0.117		4	Mark	0.566	0.514	-0.052
	11	Brad	0.373	0.329	-0.044		1	Andy	0.702	0.629	-0.073
	12	Greg	0.345	0.407	0.062		10	Jeremy	0.568	0.486	-0.082

And the mother load, the categorical breakdowns:

EXPECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
Team	R	HR	RBI	OBP	NSB	ERA	WHIP	K/9	QS	NSV
John	0.585	0.689	0.543	0.505	0.055	0.504	0.501	0.514	0.491	0.409
Greg	0.397	0.392	0.386	0.523	0.611	0.307	0.442	0.380	0.454	0.143
Mark	0.498	0.372	0.420	0.478	1.104	0.561	0.501	0.418	0.362	0.986
Jeremy	0.483	0.669	0.428	0.439	-0.161	0.525	0.510	0.441	0.601	0.764
Andy	0.506	0.501	0.576	0.517	0.302	0.692	0.569	0.487	0.839	0.920
Pflanz	0.571	0.620	0.541	0.502	0.765	0.495	0.535	0.589	0.564	0.143
Eric	0.465	0.372	0.554	0.508	1.228	0.597	0.552	0.433	0.436	0.343
Richie	0.506	0.481	0.506	0.502	0.518	0.495	0.501	0.540	0.528	0.676
Eddie	0.519	0.620	0.618	0.508	0.179	0.489	0.400	0.603	0.326	0.698
Brad	0.472	0.372	0.412	0.451	0.364	0.427	0.535	0.494	0.509	-0.101
Dan	0.444	0.491	0.498	0.496	0.271	0.385	0.451	0.527	0.656	0.720
Russ	0.553	0.422	0.517	0.571	0.765	0.522	0.501	0.574	0.234	0.299
ACTUAL WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
Team	R	HR	RBI	OBP	NSB	ERA	WHIP	K/9	QS	NSV
John	0.571	0.571	0.536	0.429	0.464	0.500	0.500	0.357	0.571	0.571
Greg	0.286	0.357	0.214	0.571	0.464	0.357	0.500	0.357	0.393	0.429
Mark	0.571	0.464	0.429	0.500	0.821	0.643	0.571	0.286	0.357	0.714
Jeremy	0.357	0.536	0.393	0.357	0.250	0.571	0.429	0.357	0.429	0.643
Andy	0.786	0.500	0.786	0.571	0.393	0.643	0.643	0.500	0.679	0.679
Pflanz	0.464	0.393	0.607	0.571	0.679	0.429	0.500	0.643	0.607	0.214
Eric	0.357	0.286	0.536	0.429	0.679	0.714	0.500	0.500	0.464	0.357
Richie	0.393	0.500	0.357	0.500	0.464	0.429	0.500	0.500	0.571	0.500
Eddie	0.536	0.750	0.643	0.500	0.321	0.571	0.429	0.857	0.429	0.714
Brad	0.714	0.536	0.536	0.429	0.393	0.214	0.357	0.357	0.536	0.179
Dan	0.429	0.679	0.536	0.357	0.429	0.357	0.429	0.571	0.643	0.536
Russ	0.536	0.429	0.429	0.786	0.643	0.571	0.643	0.714	0.321	0.464
WINNING PERCENTAGE VARIANCE
Team	R	HR	RBI	OBP	NSB	ERA	WHIP	K/9	QS	NSV
John	-0.014	-0.118	-0.007	-0.076	0.409	-0.004	-0.001	-0.157	0.080	0.162
Greg	-0.111	-0.035	-0.172	0.048	-0.147	0.050	0.058	-0.023	-0.061	0.286
Mark	0.073	0.092	0.009	0.022	-0.283	0.082	0.070	-0.132	-0.005	-0.272
Jeremy	-0.126	-0.133	-0.035	-0.082	0.411	0.046	-0.081	-0.084	-0.172	-0.121
Andy	0.280	-0.001	0.210	0.054	0.091	-0.049	0.074	0.013	-0.160	-0.241
Pflanz	-0.107	-0.227	0.066	0.069	-0.086	-0.066	-0.035	0.054	0.043	0.071
Eric	-0.108	-0.086	-0.018	-0.079	-0.549	0.117	-0.052	0.067	0.028	0.014
Richie	-0.113	0.019	-0.149	-0.002	-0.054	-0.066	-0.001	-0.040	0.043	-0.176
Eddie	0.017	0.130	0.025	-0.008	0.142	0.082	0.029	0.254	0.103	0.016
Brad	0.242	0.164	0.124	-0.022	0.029	-0.213	-0.178	-0.137	0.027	0.280
Dan	-0.015	0.188	0.038	-0.139	0.158	-0.028	-0.022	0.044	-0.013	-0.184
Russ	-0.017	0.007	-0.088	0.215	-0.122	0.049	0.142	0.140	0.087	0.165

So like I said, some of this is kind of messed up.  How does Jeremy have a negative expected winning percentage in Net Stolen Bases?  How does Mark have a NSB W% over 100%?  The answer is, I told you it's not perfect at the beginning of this post so get off my back.  

In the last grid, I highlighted the luck that fell far outside the norm.  For instance, Brad is 10-4 in the runs category but he's actually scored less runs than the league average.  On the flip side, Pflanz has a 5-8-1 record in the HR category even though his team has 13 more home runs than league average, nearly a HR/week.

I almost mustered enough energy to write a blurb on each team regarding their luck (or lack thereof).  Almost.