Strength of Schedule

The beauty of a 12 team league is that everyone plays everyone twice.  The schedules are balanced and fair, with the understanding that some teams look vastly different post-trade deadline.  That being said, some have an easier path to the playoffs than others.  The following is the strength of schedule for the remainder of the season:

	Top 6 opponent	*Opponent Proj W%	Opponent Act W%	Opponent Avg W%
Jeremy	3	0.550	0.554	0.552
Russ	3	0.534	0.526	0.530
Mark	3	0.521	0.529	0.525
Andy	1	0.517	0.498	0.507
Eric	2	0.500	0.507	0.504
John	2	0.482	0.513	0.497
Perk	3	0.494	0.493	0.494
Dan	2	0.499	0.481	0.490
Greg	1	0.475	0.489	0.482
Richie	2	0.483	0.472	0.477
Brad	2	0.478	0.466	0.472
Pflanz	1	0.468	0.472	0.470

From top to bottom:

Jeremy has the most difficult schedule down the stretch as 3 of his final 4 regular season opponents are currently in the top 6.  What's more, he catches Russ (1st) and Andy (2nd) in weeks 20 & 21.  All four of his opponents were buyers at the deadline.  

Russ also catches 3 playoff teams including a pivotal season finale against Andy in what could determine the regular season champion.  He's in no danger of falling out of the playoff picture but there are others lurking in the bye week waters threatening to make a move.

Mark checks in with the third toughest remaining schedule as he plays Jeremy (9th), Russ (1st), Richie (8th), and Perk (3rd).  He has a chance to bury the playoff hopefuls and he might be catching The Commissioner at the right time, but if he falters he could have a nerve-racking week 22 on his hands.

Andy closes with the fourth toughest schedule, though only one of those teams is a current playoff team (Russ, 1st place).  Andy sits only 3 games behind Russ for first place and has the easier schedule.  As previously mentioned, Andy and Russ look to be on a collision course for a week 22 showdown.

Eric has a slightly difficult schedule down the stretch but he's already waived the white flag on 2015.

John holds a small lead over 7th place and will have to earn his playoff spot in 2015.  He finishes with Russ (1st), Richie (8th), Perk (3rd), and Brad (11th).  The match up with Brad at the end of the season could be his life-saver.

Perk catches the "weakest" playoff teams but they're right on his tail.  With 7 games separating 3rd-6th there will be a lot of jockeying for position.  Every win and every loss has essentially twice the impact...Cabrera couldn't have resurfaced at a better time.

Dan sits 3.5 games out and has a favorable schedule down the stretch.  If he can put up a respectable number against Andy this week he finishes with Eric (10th), Pflanz (4th), and the golden goose, Greg in the season finale.  If Pflanz stumbles in the next two weeks it could set up a loser-go-home playoff match in week 21.

Greg has 4 more opponents.

Richie is staring down the barrel of a win-and-you're-probably-in scenario, as he plays Greg (12th), John (6th), Mark (5th), and Jeremy (9th).  Any wins or losses against John and Mark will be amplified in the chase for the final playoff spot.  One more loss and it could be curtains for the league's best looking manager.

Brad, like Greg, has 4 more opponents.

Pflanz wins the strength of schedule lottery.  After this week (Perk, 3rd) he has no current playoff opponents and two sellers.  Pflanz is 8 games out of a bye right now but with the top 3 teams facing difficult opponents down the stretch, it's not unfathomable that Pflanz could challenge for a bye.

*The opponent projected winning percentage was taken from my Luck Calculator.  I was only going to include that piece if I could prove it's validity.  Take a look:

Manager	Wk 12 W%	Variance	He was	Expected W% to	Wk 19 W%	W% is	Result
Perka	0.609	0.083	lucky	Worsen	0.564	Worse	Expected
Brad	0.432	0.060	lucky	Worsen	0.394	Worse	Expected
Russ	0.545	0.052	lucky	Worsen	0.603	Improved	Unexpected
Andy	0.623	0.036	lucky	Worsen	0.586	Worse	Expected
Mark	0.532	0.007	Neutral	Neutral	0.533	Neutral	Expected
Greg	0.450	-0.007	Neutral	Neutral	0.372	Worse	Unexpected
John	0.468	-0.010	unlucky	Improve	0.525	Improved	Expected
Pflanz	0.500	-0.012	unlucky	Improve	0.542	Improved	Expected
Dan	0.514	-0.028	unlucky	Improve	0.506	Worse	Unexpected
Richie	0.450	-0.051	unlucky	Improve	0.492	Improved	Expected
Jeremy	0.405	-0.078	unlucky	Improve	0.458	Improved	Expected
Eric	0.473	-0.078	unlucky	Improve	0.425	Worse	Unexpected

8 of the 12 teams regressed to the mean.  Of the 4 results that went against the predictions I think we can justify 3 of them:

- Russ had CarGo and was a buyer so he got better

- Greg didn't start a UTIL for over a month (and sold) so he got worse

- Eric sold at the end of July and has gotten rocked the last few weeks because of it

And Dan just seems to be an unlucky SOB.