Expected Keepers

One of the most underrated annual events of The Franchise season is always the keeper deadline. That’s why I’m here. I’d like to point out that this day (which falls on March 15^th this year) not only kicks off the fantasy baseball season, it also allows us to take one last fond look at the previous year’s squad. It gives you one last chance to call these guys “your guys”. It’s always fun to peruse your old roster and say things like, “Hey I got R.A. Dickey off free agency in May, and he won the Cy Young!”, or “Why the hell did I think it was smart to have Ryan Howard’s fat ass sit on my DL spot for 65% of the season only to come back and hit .204??” It’s a fun way to close the book on your 2012 roster and start anew in 2013, not to mention the entertainment we can glean from speculating on everyone else’s keepers.

Every year I’ve done some sort of prediction article and every year I’ve gotten at least a handful of them wrong. It’s yet another one of the things that makes fantasy sports so amusing. Everyone has their own opinion, people view the player pool from their own biased standpoint and therefore I’ll never be able to predict these correctly. For every manager that thinks like me (John, Pflanz), there’s always two more that I can never figure out (Keeves, Zack, Dan, Greg), and I like it that way. I really enjoy trying to piece together out who’s keeping who, and then harshly judging you on your wrong decisions, who wouldn’t?

So here is an updated list of expected keepers, from the boring obvious choices to the argument-inducing not so obvious ones, ranked by best expected keepers, from worst to first.

12. Zack

Locked In: None

On The Fence: Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Mark Trumbo

Prediction: Andrus, Granderson, Trumbo & Scherzer

Bottom Line: How did this happen? I knew Zack’s squad struggled last year but wow, this is a sorry bunch. Granderson, his only superstar, will be out until at least the first week in May, and he’s got NOBODY else. He’s kept Andrus for a few years now so I think he continues that trend. Even with Granderson missing the first month of the season (maybe more), he’s clearly one of his best options. Zack is definitely a fan of Trumbo and Gomez, but I think only one of them will stay on his pre-draft roster, my bet is that he wants to have at least one pitcher going into the draft. I think he takes Scherzer with his pitching choice and the power upside of Trumbo to balance out the speed of Andrus and Granderson. Zack could not be reached for comment. How does anyone reach Zack? No Facebook, no texting, won’t answer phonecalls, my pidgeons can’t even find him…guy is a ghost.

11. Pflanz

Locked In: Joey Votto, Starlin Castro

On The Fence: Aroldis Chapman, Ian Desmond, Martin Prado, Aramis Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, Shane Victorino, Ben Zobrist

Prediction: Zobrist & Sabathia

Bottom Line: Once he gets past the top two, Pflanz has his work cut out for him. Not only will this be a tough decision to fill the last two spots, but his remaining choices aren’t too stellar. Let’s boil down the choices: An unknown source has let slip that Chapman and Desmond aren’t really a part of the discussion. Prado and Vicorino seem like unlikely choices, as Prado’s numbers have declined and Pflanz’s relationship with Red Sox players has soured after the demise of Kevin Youkilis. Ramirez is usually a solid play but will be out most of spring training with a knee sprain, and that may be enough to get overlooked. Zobrist is probably his best choice, and we know that C.C. has been a keeper of his for years now, so I’m thinking he takes Zobrist for value reasons and Sabathia for sentimental ones. Overall, some of the weakest keepers in the league.

10. Dan

Locked In: Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton

On The Fence: Desmond Jennings, Tim Lincecum, Mike Moustakas

Prediction: Lincecum

Bottom Line: Alber has all but confirmed that it is Lincecum’s spot to lose, stating a “90%” chance the former Cy Young winner would complete his pre-draft roster. When he originally started cleaning house for draft picks at the trading deadline, Dan deliberately hung on to Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Stanton, and Lincecum for keeper purposes. Jennings may be the younger, sexier pick, but Alber will have plenty of chances to snatch him up with his crazy amount of stockpiled draft picks.

9. Greg

Locked In: Bryce Harper, Adam Jones, Dustin Pedroia

On The Fence: Jose Reyes, Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Zimmerman, Madison Bumgarner, Yoenis Cespedes, Brett, Lawrie, Adam Wainwright, Chris Sale, Paul Konerko

Prediction: Bumgarner

Bottom Line: Greg is a manager who I can never quite predict. This year’s he’s got one of the toughest keeper decisions to make in the league. He has confirmed the first three via text (although all of the names are so close that I could see that changing). Harper and Pedroia seem to be surefire keepers and Greg is a fan of Baltimore product Adam Jones, so I think we can tentatively lock in those three names. The fourth keeper is a true challenge; all of those guys are in the same tier of players, right around 40-60 in the overall ranks. The problem is that there are so many valid choices. He has to pick one out of those nine names! That’s a good problem to have, Greg did a great job drafting last year and should see it pay off this year and in the future, I think he goes pitcher here and keeps Bumgarner, but this is my least confident prediction, he could go anywhere with this one.

8. Andy

Locked In: Jose Bautista, Cole Hamels, Josh Hamilton

On The Fence: Jason Heyward, Aaron Hill, Mark Teixeira, Matt Weiters

Prediction: Heyward

Bottom Line: Teixiera is on a sharp decline riddled with injuries, Hill is solid but not keeper material, Weiters is on here for shits and gigs. I don’t think this decision is that hard. I actually don’t even think Andy thinks it’s that hard. My theory is that if he had his four keepers set a week before the deadline he wouldn’t be happy. He needed to be mulling over this decision every time he went ice fishing. He needed to be contemplating something while he watched MLB network in December (seriously, who does that?). He needed something to ponder during Bruins intermissions. I know it’s Heyward, you know it’s Heyward, he knows it’s Heyward. He’s overthinking it, and he knows it, so just let him overthink it for a little while longer.

7. Keeves

Locked In: Andrew McCutchen, Adrian Beltre

On The Fence: Billy Butler, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Felix Hernandez

Prediction: Gonzalez & Hernandez

Bottom Line: Here’s another guy who’s impossible to predict. I think left, he goes right, I predict he keeps a shortstop, he goes with a closer. I can’t read him, but this year I’m going to try to stay a step ahead. I know this will be wrong, but here’s my reasoning as to why it could be (could be) right. McCutchen is a top 5 talent and Beltre is as reliable as they come, so I feel like these two are no-brainers. Then things get dicey. People are excited about Butler this year, and Gordon had a solid season following his breakout in 2011. However, he never gets recognized for this (mostly because Roland is in the league), but Keeves likes his pitching, a lot, which means King Felix is a must. One spot left, did I mention Keeves puts emphasis on pitching? He’ll be mighty happy with Felix and Gio as his 1-2 punch, now let’s sit back and watch him make me look dumb.

6. Brad

Locked In: Prince Fielder, David Wright, Jered Weaver

On The Fence: Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Holliday, Brandon Phillips

Prediction: Encarnacion

Bottom Line: Fielder and Wright are obvious, and Brad has confirmed that Weaver will be #3. The fourth keeper however is giving Brad some major problems. I’ve discussed Brad’s keepers with him over a beer more times than I can count since the end of last season, and at this point, I just want it to be over. Encarnacion is typically ranked the highest of his remaining options, but Brad has shown some hesitancy to trust the third baseman after just one productive season. Holliday hasn’t been the same since Pujols left and Phillips isn’t quite keeper material, so I think Brad will go with the most upside here and go for round 2 with the Blue Jay.

5. Zhou (???)

Locked In: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg

On The Fence: Michael Bourn, Matt Cain, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee

Prediction: Bourn & Lee

Bottom Line: Tough prediction to make because I actually don’t know who will end up drafting this team. I’m assuming if someone inherits the team he’s going to want to keep at least one offensive player (Bourn), then again, it might be a dumb move letting Darvish or Cain back into the draft pool as either would be a first round pick. This all depends on who drafts this team, and it’s been confirmed by several sources that it probably won’t be Zhou.

4. Mark

Locked In: Ryan Braun, David Price, Buster Posey, Jay Bruce

Bottom Line: Not a lot of thought needed to go into this one. Braun is atop a lot of expert’s rankings, and Price, Posey, and Bruce are all young stars on the rise. Mark is making a big jump from his 2012 keeper list (which included Matt Moore and Michael Morse), describing his 2013 group as “legit…first four round material”. Now I do have to take a quick moment to salute the #1 pick of the first ever Franchise draft, after being the longest owned player in the history of the league, from March 21^st, 2008 to next Friday night at midnight, Alex Rodriguez will not be kept.

3. John

Locked In: Mike Trout, Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Justin Upton

Bottom Line: For John, it’ll be the same keepers as last year except for one obvious change. Rookie of the year and MVP runner up Mike Trout will take the place of Carl Crawford on this year’s pre-draft roster. These keepers are once again near the top of the league and at prime positions as well. It’s important to note that the champ has been extra vocal on the message boards this season and seems intent on becoming the bully of the league this year, stating at a recent press conference, “This is Trout’s league now, everyone should be scared. I’m ready to defend my title.”

2. Eddie

Locked In: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Matt Kemp

On The Fence: Ian Kinsler, Pablo Sandoval, Yovani Gallardo

Prediction: Kinsler

Bottom Line: Manager Eddie Perkins revealed the most obvious three of his four keepers on Thursday evening, then toyed with reporters texting, “4^th is a surprise”. His big 3 are untouchable, all in the top 10 and a cut above the competition, but after careful roster review the clear choice for keeper #4 will be Ian Kinsler. Sandoval had a great postseason and Gallardo would be a formidable number 2 starter but Perkins has been a Kinsler owner for years now, and knows he beats out the other options. Same keepers as last year and I know what you’re saying, “big deal, he didn’t even make the playoffs!” Let’s not forget that HE WASN’T AT THE DRAFT. He actually gets to pick his own players this year rather than drunkenly asking through the phone if Josh Hamilton has been selected yet, that should (should) work in his favor.

1. Russ

Locked In: Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria

Bottom Line: I think the Commish announced these keepers the day after the 2012 season ended. The “core four” will be back again for the 4^th straight year, and once again they make up arguably the best keepers in the game. This team coasts through the regular season with what is normally the most talented offensive roster in the league, then shuts down during the playoffs  due to lack of defense and complacency (sounds like a football team I know). And yet, sitting in the front office is the league’s most dedicated fantasy manager. At this point, Travers is just a walking ball of irony, what a shmuck.